2019 MLS Season

Discussion in 'Houston Dynamo' started by newtex, Dec 17, 2018.

  1. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #26 juvechelsea, May 7, 2019
    Last edited: May 7, 2019
    I get what you're saying and it has some truth, England has a long window, and you have to think about the incoming and outgoing windows, but that cuts both ways. You can sell him soon. You can also sell him when the two windows overlap again. I see that as the most likely scenario since GC is coming up fast and we would likely negotiate his exit on his return. It would also allow GC to serve as a showcase. There would be an injury risk but the goal seems to be profit maximization at that risk and we can't sit him for Honduras.

    The idea we would get his replacement now from the mere international slot does not follow. Yes, we could buy an international player today. But that assumes this wasn't more Portland's trade for their reasons. But that player would be non DP, for one of your 2 leading scorers. Doesn't track. We will sell him and then replace him with a DP. That DP slot is not open til he goes. So that defines the sequence right there. We could pick up the supporting cast guy now or later, but there are zero rumors of someone coming in right now.

    I think we will be shopping for at least 2 and perhaps as many as 3-4 players in July-August. I don't see a team that is building a cushion selling the player early in the outgoing window just to clear the room, undermining their own standing, leaving them weak for weeks, and handing away any value bump if he plays well in GC. No, they will wait this out and the risk will be he gets hurt in the next 2 months and we're stuck with each other for a year, and we're carrying a hurt player in a DP slot. But I think with the obsession with getting that transfer price up we will again roll the dice.

    I mean, why would a team jumped out to this big start and on a roll undercut its own roll by selling the player early and then it's months for the replacement? Heck, I have half a mind to say see if Elis will stay for a pile of more gold but I get the impression he wants not just money but a prestige league. I kind of doubt that is Mexico after how Monterrey treated him.
     
  2. DynamoManiac

    DynamoManiac Member+

    Jan 27, 2014
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    No, I know but assume he is going to Europe not Mexico and their primary transfer window more or less coincides with the MLS secondary transfer window. Of the countries he is like to head to, England would have the earliest primary window for international transfers opening June 9th, but even then July 1st is realistically the earliest a player would move.
     
  3. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Chance I guess they could just use this to sign Carlos Small or Maalique Foster from RGVFC.

    Some unsubstantiated rumors on the Dynamo subreddit says Renato Ibarra from Club America.
     
  4. DynamoManiac

    DynamoManiac Member+

    Jan 27, 2014
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    A move like Ibarra would make sense. Don't know much about him, but have to be bringing in a winger.

    If they don't do something before the window closes, though, this trade will look pretty silly.
     
  5. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #30 juvechelsea, May 7, 2019
    Last edited: May 7, 2019
    I don't know how long Pena is out but the obvious moves at that position, strike me as sell 1-2 forwards, and either release or mutual tear-up Pena. You use the marquee spots on the marquee names. You use Pena's slot for somebody for the bench, including Small or Foster. That spot is currently netting us zero and can be made productive.

    You can then use the Portland slot where-ever else you want. I would suggest wingback or some sort of attacking mid option. Those are the actual need areas at rank and file wages.

    We can also trade some mix of Ceren, dlG, Deric, Duvall, and Fuenmayor. Just because we are coping doesn't mean you just chug along with the same driftwood still on the bench. Swap some of the frustrating parts of the supporting cast out like Kinnear used to. See if we can find a missing piece or two more. Team needs to get off the idea that when you win you can get complacent.
     
  6. DynamoManiac

    DynamoManiac Member+

    Jan 27, 2014
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Good thing the Dynamo shipped off $175k of Garber bucks for an international slot they didn't manage to use before the window closed.
     
    CeltTexan, *rey* and Westside Cosmo repped this.
  7. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Jordan is playing chess while other teams are playing checkers!!!
     
    CeltTexan, Soccergodlss and *rey* repped this.
  8. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    Telling you, it was Portland's trade and not ours. This is the trade where they need Garber bucks for a deal that has to happen by the 7th and we have some we're not spending. We're Kroger's and they wanted cookie dough.

    I think the fair complaints are, we didn't get an actual player, and we in exchange got a slot that expires in November. On a player who inevitably we will not be able to sign until July, but who then may have to go through the State Department to get his status right. So, late August, September, unless we use it for someone already in MLS on a visa.

    I don't get the trade because we will be rebooting this if Elis and others get sold, and need our own acquisition tools. While an international slot is a useful luxury we will open some with our moves, and have some bench internationals we could trade. And that slot is a short term item that you then have to undo next offseason.
     
  9. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
  10. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
  11. Varus

    Varus Member

    Feb 5, 2015
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Bleh, part of me wants to hope we just get a late announcement on an acquisition. Otherwise this seems a bit dumb and you'd have hoped they would have had someone set-up. The fact that this enables a Western conference playoff rival make a signing makes it doubly dumb.

    Better hope whoever they're bring in is an A+ plus player and that the team doesn't drop points because he might not see the field until there are only six games left in the regular season.

    In other news, Elis is getting linked back to Celtic again. I really don't think he's around that much longer.
     
  12. Westside Cosmo

    Westside Cosmo Member+

    Oct 4, 2007
    H-Town
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  13. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Additional depth at forward would be very good -- that is not controversial.

    That any other addition than that is "unacceptable" is what is controversial. Who is depth at right back? Who is depth in midfield? McNamara? Cerin? Cabezas who has been disastrous so far this year? Who is depth at center back? I don't see a part of the team where the Dynamo don't need some additional MLS quality depth except GK. I would find quality additions like Seattle or LAG just pulled off, to be very acceptable.
     
  14. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If you have a chance to get something you need, at a decent price, even before you can use it, then I see the reason in getting it now.
     
  15. DynamoManiac

    DynamoManiac Member+

    Jan 27, 2014
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Maybe, although I don't know that $175k for a 1 year intl slot is necessarily a discount. Thing is, a lot can happen between now and the time you'd actually be able to use it, like Elis getting sold which would open up an intl slot. I'm not sure the little bit of Garber bucks you maybe saved is worth the risk that you never actually need or use the spot.
     
  16. DynamoManiac

    DynamoManiac Member+

    Jan 27, 2014
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Okay, had to look up trades for i-slots. The Dynamo traded $175k total of GAM/TAM over this year and next .Other recent pure Garber bucks deals for international spots:

    August 2018 (only a few months) slots went for $50k

    July 2018 (basically secondary transfer window slots) went for $100k

    Feb 2018 slot went for $175k GAM
    Feb 2018 slot went for $100k GAM

    If you're not actually using the slot now, hard to say based on last season deals that it was a discounted price. It was equivalent to the maximum price paid for a slot last season (granted one could argue that with the TAM portion being 2019 money, there is some discount against the one $175k GAM deal in 2018). If you waited to do a deal in the secondary transfer window, looks like you could expect to save at least $75k over what we paid.
     
  17. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Discounted deal? If that is your criteria I cannot share it. Nothing comes at a discount.

    I don't know the current value of international slots and I'm pretty confident no one on this board does either. I'm no defender of the current regime -- but I'm not going to unfairly evaluate that which I don't have information to evaluate.
     
  18. DynamoManiac

    DynamoManiac Member+

    Jan 27, 2014
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    You're saying "if they got a decent price" you move before you need it. If there is a reasonably well established Garber bucks price for international slots, then "a decent price" is a discount off of that. If you are paying full price for something you don't actually need right now, then you're just throwing money away.

    Actually we do know the going rate for international slots. The details of all trades are fully disclosed now. You can go and look up trade history, get a list of all of the international slot trades where Garber bucks were sent in return, like I did, and get a pretty good sense of value. I'm used to doing this on the NWSL side where the trade value of an international slot is extremely well established.

    I can see taking an international slot now, even if you don't need it, if you are able to do so at a discount off the going rate because your trade partner needs the Garber bucks and is desperate (although as pointed out earlier, helping out a divisional rival is questionable). Paying the market rate to get something you don't actually need right now when history says you can get it later when you do need it at a lower price, that just seems stupid.
     
    *rey* repped this.
  19. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    "discount" might be your definition of a decent price but it is not mine.

    The examples you gave of "market data" were from last year. The value of these things has been far more volatile than that. You have not convinced me that you have any relevant data on the current value of an international slot.

    Lets face it. If the deal had been reversed you would be criticizing the Dynamo. No matter what they do or don't do you will find a way to criticize it -- and Rey will rep it.
     
  20. DynamoManiac

    DynamoManiac Member+

    Jan 27, 2014
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    No? How about these then?

    Jan 31: Columbus receives $175k GAM from Montreal for an international slot

    Feb 7: Minn received $125k GAM and $75k TAM from Chicago for an international spot

    Feb 22: Portland receives $100k 2019 TAM, $50K 2020 GAM from DC United for an international spot

    Mar 6: Columbus receives $100k GAM, $75k TAM from Galaxy for an international spot

    April 3: Galaxy receive $100k GAM, $75K TAM from NYC for an international slot

    April 5: Cincy receives $150k GAM from Montreal for an international spot

    That's all pretty consistent. You glean a lot from it. GAM>TAM. Full season spot worth $100k GAM, $75K TAM. No change from last year. Throw in more or less GAM, TAM side moves up on down in reverse.

    So, Dynamo in that sense do slightly better as paid more TAM than GAM, but not as good as you'd do buying a half season slot if you ever actually need the slot.

    I think I've been pretty clear. If you go out and get Elis replacement now, it's a brilliant deal. Buying and sitting on a spot you may never need? It's not the end of the world but it's not high end execution either.
     
  21. *rey*

    *rey* Member+

    Feb 22, 2006
    Houston
    HA!

    naw man, i just think Matt Jordan and his moves are too fckn cute*. look, i know he's bargain shopping but c'mon.

    i could trust Dom because he was predictable in his moves and seemed to have a soccer philosophy behind them. Matt Jordan is the soccerball equivalent of the extreme couponers you see at Krogers buying 30 shampoos, 15 packs of hot dog buns and a 30 lb bag of cat food (and they don't even have a cat).

    *i shouldve trademarked the "cute for cute sake and chess/checkers) lines
     
  22. Dynamo_Forever

    Dynamo_Forever Member+

    Aug 9, 2007
    Clear Lake, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Jordan playing chess would imply he is strategic
     
  23. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I have been critical of Jordan on this board, I think, longer than anyone. But I will at least evaluate things objectively going forward. You guys have gotten to where he could acquire Messi for $200 TAM and you guys would trash it. The criticism is just not objective anymore. Like this deal. Its a minor nothing move that just acquires something he thinks we might need at a price he finds reasonable. My lord there are plenty of other things to criticize.

    How the hell does this move, acquiring an i-slot, have anything to do with the bargain hunting we all don't like?

    With you guys now anything he does is wrong -- and not doing anything is wrong.
     
  24. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For the record, I'm very concerned about our depth. Without going into specific players I don't think we are 13 players thin. I worry what is going to happen when gold cup hits and the congested summer schedule. Jordan appears to be standing pat which I'm thinking is a big mistake.
     
  25. CeltTexan

    CeltTexan Member+

    Sep 21, 2000
    Houston, TX USA
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Celtic are in need of a class winger for their outside right role.
    This would be a solid fit for what we know of our Pantera Negra!
    Can he learn Scottish English dialect and as well the 8 months outta the year it is like our January in Houston??? I will miss him but when European ambitions are there, good luck my man! Once a Houston footballer, always a Houston footballer.
     

Share This Page