The details were released just before the start of the African Cup so it flew under the radar. This website outlines the format. "The competing teams will have to go through three preliminary rounds in order to bring the number of teams down to 20 so as to be able to constitute five (5) groups of four teams, where the first from each group will qualifier for the World Cup." The first round will likely involve a few low ranked teams fighting in a playoff. The second round will likely involve the lowest ranked participants facing each other in another playoff to reduce the field to 40. The third round will split the remaining 40 into seeded and non-seeded teams that face each other in another playoff. The final round will be the same as the one we saw in 2010. 6 match days with 5 groups of 4 teams. One thing to realize is that Morocco is currently ranked in the bottom 20 of African teams because they have not had a competitive match in years and won't have one until after 2017. This means you could have an intriguing third round with a powerhouse being eliminated by a talented but under-ranked Moroccan side.
Won't the qualifiers give Morocco a competitive match before 2017? This means both CONCACAF and CAF will have three rounds of two leg series before their first group stage (only group stage for CAF).
As of right now, Morocco is the 23rd ranked CAF side. I can see them falling to 24 by next month once Equatorial Guinea leapfrog them as they're undefeated this year in AFCON. Morocco would need to break the Top 20 by the time the Pots for the Third Round are determined. I'm totally guessing, but you can expect that drawing to happen sometime between late 2015 to mid 2016. Morocco during this time is completely banned from even playing qualifiers for the 2017 AFCON, which means that they won't be able boost their rankings while other teams can. They may plummet even more. Brazil went from being ranked 3rd in the World to 22nd over a two years period from 2011-2013 because they didn't have World Cup qualifiers (since they were hosts). I only highlight Morocco because this presents a special circumstance. Put Morocco up against Ghana, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa, Tunisia, Senegal, and I honestly can see the match going either way. Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt in particular get obliterated in Morocco whenever they play there. They are hard to beat at home. That's a tough playoff for any team. There's at least a 50% chance Morocco draws one of those African sides. Can you imagine any of those teams not even making it to the final rounds of qualifiers? Things are going to be pretty interesting. I myself favored Morocco to win AFCON if it had stayed in their country. They looked sharp in friendlies.
It's the same as the last round from 2010 which I think was a better format than playoffs. The difference is this time there won't be another group stage before it. If I'm reading correctly, the top teams will enter directly during the 3rd round?
I'd expect the drawing to happen at the FIFA draw in Russia in July 2015. That's what the first post says.
CAF have only announced the format - 3 knockout rounds before a final group phase (5 groups of 4). They have NOT announced at which round teams will enter. As such, I disgree that the top seeds will enter in Round 3 as suggested in the original post. If the top teams do enter the round before the group stage, only 2 knockout rounds would be required: R1: Teams ranked #27 to #54 = 28 R2: Teams ranked #1 to #26 + Round 1 winners (14) = 40 R3 [group stage]: 20 Round 2 winners To me, it seems pointless having an addition round that will only remove a small handful of teams. I personally believe that a similar format to the recent Africa Cup of Nations will be used - top teams are seeded through to the group stage (Round 4) and everyone else starts in Round 1 (with a few byes to round 2): R1: Teams ranked #17 to #54 = 38 teams R2: Team ranked #16 joined by 19 Round 1 winners = 20 R3: Round 2 winners = 10 R4: Teams ranked #1 to #15 + 5 Round 3 winners = 20 [group stage] Where each group will have a team ranked #1 to #5, #6 to #10, #11 to #15 and a team who progressed through the preliminary rounds. The draw for Rounds 1 to 3 however, might be quite complex!
No, it akes sense for the top ranked teams to get byes to the 3rd round since only 14 teams will get eliminated during the 1st 2 rounds. What I got is that 30 teams will get byes to the 3rd round while 24 will go through round 1 and/or round 2. Out of those 24 teams, the bottom 8 would play the 1st round so 4 of them can join the other 16. Then, the 2nd round will be disputed among 20 teams and give us 10 to join the other 30 to make it 40. It does make sense numerically but idk. 30 teams receiving byes to the 3rd round is just too much imo.
This format seems a lot more logical to me. The only issue is that CAF usually doesn't like giving top ranked teams automatic byes for more than 2 rounds. 2010 qualification is a good example. Such byes may work in CONCACAF where you have USA, Mexico, Costa Rica and Hondruas, but in CAF some of the 2nd tier teams may find it unfair.
Wikipedia says October 5 to 13. Wikipedia says the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers start in June. I expect 2015 and 2016 to be a mix of qualifying for both tournaments. Since the World Cup 2018 Qualifying Group Stage needs only 6 matchdays, all of them could be played in 2017 after the Africa Cup of Nations.
Well... its confirmed. Eq. Guinea will leapfrog Morocco. At worst they'll have 504 pts which will make them about 64th.
Well, Morocco is outside the top 20 and they could qualify if they get an advantageous draw. Also, some of the teams outside of the top 20 can get results vs the teams inside it. Does anyoen knows how many teams participate in each round? My calculations led me to 30 teams having byes to the 3rd round, but it seems too much. Most likely will have around 20.
Also - Equatorial Guinea will be a top 20 African team after this tournament. Doubt they can replicate the results in qualifiers.
Would have preferred the groups to be at least 5 team groups, they could still fit those 8 games in one year of qualifiers, but the risk of one-off slip-ups deciding a group would be minimized. Also thinking that as far as the top 10-12 teams in Africa should make it, the teams from 13 to 30-35 are similar in quality and there will be no clear favourites.
I know it will depend on the draws and a lot of thing change in 2/3 years: But of now i see 3 teams as main favorites for the spots: Ghana, Algeria and Ivory Coast. 3 Incognites with the most potential to fulfill the last 2 spots: Senegal (will they ever performe well with the amount of talent), Nigeria (will depend on the rise of the fantastic U-17 core) and Morocco (with the suspension they might have a very bad luck to confront a tough team in earlier rounds, but the team is loaded with talent) 6 good contenders: Cameroon (always dangerous), Tunisia (also dangerous as well), South Africa (very quality football in African Cup, just need to work out as squad and stamina), Congo DR (With Nigeria and Senegal the team with the most talented guys, the mains problem, they cant find out a way to everyone exceed at their position), Egypt (not the same caliber of team of the triple crown led by Aboutrika, but has a very nice young prospects like Salah, Trezeguet and prolific goalscorer Gedo, that might return from injury) and Mali, with the swansong of their generation. Other them those, i think will too much a surprise, and if this happen, i would only bet on Zambia, Gabon, Congo and Cape Verde; but still a very large shot.
That's what I was thinking. I wouldn't even mind something like the 2006 format. That qualification created a lot of parity too.
For fun, I created pots based on the current Top 20 African sides (I know this will change) Pot 1: | Pot 2: | Pot 3: | Pot 4: Algeria | Guinea | Zambia | Gabon Tunisia | Cape Verde| South Africa | Togo Ivory Coast | Cameroon | Congo DR | Burkina Faso Senegal | Nigeria | Egypt | Rwanda Ghana | Gabon | Congo | Uganda This will make for some interesting groups. A group could have Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, and Burkina Faso while others can have Tunisia, Cape Verde, Congo, Rwanda. I think this will create some interesting first time qualifiers as a result.
According to football-rankings.info, this will probably be the top 20 in july 2011. (i just swapped Uganda with Morocco) 1 Algeria 2 Ghana 3 Tunisia 4 Côte d'Ivoire 5 Senegal 6 Cameroon 7 Guinea 8 Congo 9 Mali 10 Nigeria 11 Equatorial Guinea 12 South Africa 13 Congo DR 14 Cape Verde Islands 15 Gabon 16 Egypt 17 Zambia 18 Burkina Faso 20 Togo 23 Morocco I made a quick draw. A- Algeria, Congo, Cape Verde, Egypt B- Ghana, Guinea, South Africa, Zambia C- Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Gabon, Burkina Faso D- Senegal, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Togo E- Tunisia, Mali, Congo DR, Morocco
I like those groups and think they're the fairest possible outcome. I just hope there are minimal groups of death.
Thank goodness that that insanity is over. Still I wish we could have a final supergroup like CONCACAF. Such heavy reliance on FIFA rankinsg is problematic. Nigeria will be in trouble if they draw Algeria, Ghana or CIV.