2018 Season- Game Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'NWSL' started by BlueCrimson, Mar 20, 2018.

  1. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    When I wrote down Lloyd, I forgot Lloyd was out on a red card.
    But I won't revise the score prediction, but will attribute the SB goal to McCaskill, not Lloyd. - even with Shea Groom out with concussion. ...OTOH.........
     
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  2. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lunatica is on a great roll, has moved into second place, and may be closing on the robot! UTBalance isn't too shabby either.

    upload_2018-8-11_18-54-34.png

    PS - The robot's operator was very happy for the robot to take a 0 on the Pride v Thorns game.
     
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  3. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For my results, I just gotta make the same post-game quote from every coach who sees a playoff spot slipping away:
    "To get at least a point from every game is a good thing."

    In the break between U20 England v. Mexico and Netherlands v. France, I did some arithmetic (errors may abound!).

    Since the end of Week 14 (July 7), Lunatica has gained 47 points and Blue Crimson has gained 44 points. Others beating the robot’s 35 points are Tracer with 37, BalanceUT with 36, and me with 36.
     
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  4. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've noticed that, and I have a theory: The humans are learning from the robot and the other statistics.

    I'm not sure the theory is right. If I have time, I'll do another week-by-week cumulative score chart that shows how predictors have trended over the course of the season. I'm guessing it will show that the robot's performance has not tailed off but rather has been pretty consistent. Rather, the humans have improved. If my guess is right, the question is why. My proposed answer will be the humans are learning from the robot and the other stats -- as they should.

    Hopefully, someone (or more) will pass the robot before the end of the season.
     
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  5. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Interesting theory. By my part, I don't use to look at robot's predictions before making mine. On the other hand, this somehow could reinforce the theory, since I am one of the humans who definitely aren't catching up with the robot... :x3:

    But probably you mean something more wide than just looking at robot predictions: you mean "learning to use its same methods", although I am not sure what this could exactly mean. You mean that we'd start actually using the data from the previous matches of the season (or using them better) to make more consistent predictions? I don't think, though, that humans (at least consciouly) have started applying this kind of statistical methods in a more rigorous way and suddenly forgot all of the other elements, including their personal bias.

    Maybe it's just a question that, towards the end of the season, the relative strengths of the teams are so much apparent that humans can have a solid grasp on them? But this shouldn't make their predictions "as good" as the robot's ones, instead of "even better"?
    Or maybe it's possible that, by the end of the season, motivations of the teams (who can now see their "clock" for respective target closing down) become somehow more relevant than statistical history (mind, just another theory, with no actual data to support it :coffee:).
     
  6. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    You could test the theory by posting the robot predictions after the week’s guessing is done and see if the human predictions degrade.
     
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  7. Tracer

    Tracer Member

    Apr 22, 2016
    New York
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Weds. 8/15-

    Sea - Chi, 2 - 1
     
  8. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    SEA 1 CHI 1
     
  9. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Predictions for all of this week's games except Portland v Chicago, which will await the result of Wednesday's game:

    Seattle 1 v Chicago 1
    Houston 1 v Washington 1
    NJNY 1 v Utah 2
    North Carolina 1 v Orlando 1
     
  10. lunatica

    lunatica Member+

    Nov 20, 2013
    SEA 1 CHI 1
     
  11. BlueCrimson

    BlueCrimson Member+

    North Carolina Courage
    United States
    Nov 21, 2012
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Seattle 0, Chicago 1
     
  12. stubifier

    stubifier Member

    Real Salt Lake
    United States
    Jan 19, 2018
    SEA 1 CHI 1
     
  13. Smallchief

    Smallchief Member+

    Oct 27, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
  14. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's a chart that shows predictors' scoring trends over the course of the season. Some weeks have more games than others which has some effect on the chart. For example, week 10 is relatively flat -- because it had only one game.

    As I suspected, the robot is relatively consistent from week to week -- more or less a straight line progression. On the other hand, Lunatica and Blue Crimson have improved in the relatively recent period.


    upload_2018-8-14_11-34-22.png
     
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  15. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wimpy prediction - I can't lose ground.
    SEA 1 CHI 1;
    so far only @Tracer and @BlueCrimson have bucked the tide, they both could possibly gain on the robot.
     
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  16. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    BlueCrimson is looking better, with Rapinoe out for the game. People did see that, right?
     
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  17. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
  18. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Actually not!!! :x3:

    But I won't change my prediction anyway and will cross my fingers. :unsure:

    Also, by reading the injury report, I discover Yanez has a foot fracture, that I wasn't aware of.

    Meanwhile, Utsugi's calf strain looks more serious than we had initially thought: I hope we're going to see her back sooner than later.
    And Yaverbuch never played in the whole season.
     
  19. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'll have to ask the robot what it thinks about crossing fingers. I think it will say, "Duh, what does that mean?":geek:
     
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  20. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Well, of course: robots don't use to have crossable fingers!
     
  21. 59Amerinorsk

    59Amerinorsk Member

    Chicago Red Stars
    Norway
    Mar 31, 2017
    SEA 1 CHI 3
    HOU 2 WAS 2
    NJ 2 UTA 2
    NC 3 ORL 2
    POR 1 CHI 2
     
  22. stubifier

    stubifier Member

    Real Salt Lake
    United States
    Jan 19, 2018
    I already picked for tonight's game, but here are my calls for the weekend:
    HOU 2 WAS 1
    NJ 0 UT 1
    NC 3 ORL 1
    POR 1 CHI 1
     
  23. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    SEA 2 CHI 1
     
  24. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fourth game prediction for the weekend:

    Portland 2 v Chicago 1 (could be 1-1, but the robot's protocols say not as likely)
     
  25. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Predictions for the week-end:

    NC 3 ORL 1
    POR 1 CHI 2
    SEA 3 HOU 0
    WAS 0 UTA 1
     

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