Goodlatte’s Son Backs Democrat for Father’s Seat Bobby Goodlatte, the son of Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-VA), announced he had given the maximum allowed donation to Jennifer Lewis (D), who is running for his father’s congressional seat. He tweets: “2018 is the year to flip districts — let’s do this!”
Good point. If the blue wave does happen in November, you bet that there will be right wing media sites claiming that there was hacking by the left. And Viseversa if it does not happen.
This R guy is cooked. NJ may lose as many as 4 GOP seats this fall. MacArthur Faces Tough Race In New Jersey A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district finds Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ) barely leading challenger Andy Kim (D), 41% to 40%, among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote. “When applying two different likely voter models, the contest shifts in the Democrat’s favor although it remains basically tied. A historical midterm model gives Kim 45% support and MacArthur 44%, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Kim a slight 46% to 43% lead. These gaps are within the margin of error for these samples.” The Cook Political Report has the district as Lean Republican.
Melissa Howard withdrawing from Florida House race after accusation that she lied about college degree https://t.co/jELSheVV7m pic.twitter.com/UqTEjDdVJN— Miami Herald (@MiamiHerald) August 14, 2018
Good numbers for the D's. A new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, 51% to 42%. Key finding: Independent voters go Democratic 50% to 38%. Another key finding: “Donald Trump’s presidency makes 52% of American voters think less favorably of the Republican Party, while 16% think more favorably of the GOP and 30% say President Trump has no impact on their views.” New: CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS Aug. 9-12Registered Voters’ Choice for Congress Democrat 52%Republican 41% More Enthusiastic Voters’ Choice for Congress Democrat 54%Republican 41%— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) August 15, 2018
Let me get my cold water. The last Quinnipiac poll (7/18-7/23) had Democrats up 51-39, so their lead has shrunk by 3 in this poll. The last CNN poll (6/14-6/17) had Democrats up 50-42, so their lead has grown by 3 in this poll. It feels trend-like since they're being released at the same time and the numbers look big, but the results aren't substantially different from what these polls found before.
MOE...... By all accounts the gap is between 7 and 10 pts. If we count the enthusiasm factor, the D's are in a good spot for the fall.
Missed this one: https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/in-senate-poll-aug-18/ Donnelly (D) up by 12 (!) in the Indiana Senate race. Margin drops to 0 if he votes for Kavanaugh.
Holy shit. 12!!! From Trafalgar??? That can't be right. There's a better one of the generic ballot since 1988 on one of the 538 guys' twitter feeds. Can't find it.
I read an article about Turtle panicking today and wanting to pass a bunch of legislation to appeal to independents and moderates instead of the usual base only strategy
I think it's funny that the Dem gubernatorial candidate in Vermont is often described as the first "openly" transgender candidate at that level. Unless there's some historical facts I don't know....
This is a piece about women running for local offices. All of the reporting was done talking to women. It was then written by a woman. Even copy edited by a woman. https://t.co/PKiXtcCdG9— Ginger Gibson (@GingerGibson) August 15, 2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...gislatures-are-poised-to-change-idUSKBN1L00Z8 In Michigan, for example, a state that proved pivotal in electing President Donald Trump in 2016, only 23 percent of state lawmakers are women. But this year, a woman will appear on the Michigan ballot for governor, attorney general, secretary of state and in 63 percent of the state’s Senate seats and 71 percent of its House seats. Nationally, if women candidates are as successful as they have been for the past two decades - their historic rate of victory is about 60 percent - the number of women in state legislatures could reach an all-time high of about 40 percent, according to an analysis by Reuters of state ballots and historic campaigns.
I think it was The Hill ETA http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/401868-gops-midterm-strategy-takes-shape
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ The 538 model is out. 75-25 chance of Democrats taking the House, 230-205 the top outcome. Feels similar to 2016. Vote.
For the record, I think the Dems will win more than 230. I would say 240. VOTE! Contribute! Volunteer! Help anyway you can!