Took me a while to realize this was where you called-- not subscribed to this thread. NM has three districts now: roughly, the north, safely blue, the central part which is more variable but has been blue for a while now, and the south safely red (Pearce, Heather Wilson before him.) Created in large part by the infusion of folks from Texas into the Southeast quadrant of the state, mostly for oilfield or mining jobs. Gubernatorial politics are greatly affected by ethnicity. You want to have a Hispanic name or at least be obviously Hispanic with an anglo surname a la Bill Richardson. Susana Martinez beat a really good prospect in Diane Denish largely on this, partly because Denish made pay-day loans an issue in a state where many voters see themselves as dependent on them. (It is a terrible thing for the body politic, but not a thing one runs on-- it is like trying to fight opioid addiction by promising to give all the addicts a taste of the lash. You don't run on outlawing pay day loans, you tackle them after you win, then point with pride next election...) Martinez then beat another good prospect, Steve King, the son of the last Anglo governor, on ethnicity and experience and an election that was nationally partly about "different names." But she's term limited now, and ambitious; in fact she's lost a lot of popularity by making it too clear she has national ambitions. She may be the beneficiary of the 72 car pileup we all see coming in the Republican party, being one of the few Reeps to have publicly twisted Trump's nose, or she may fade. I wouldn't be altogether surprised if she ran for Pearce's seat, in fact, though I think she's more apt to see herself as a senator/Veep-in-waiting. But someone has to be found to run for Gov'nor for the Republicans, and while not Hispanic Pearce has sufficient stature thanks to his current position. Heather Wilson was kind of a carpetbagger, a product/recruit of the Bush machine, not Hispana, and I think out of favor for some behind the scenes misstep as well, so I don't see it as her slot. In addition it is not obvious that the Dems will be able to find a stronger candidate than King, again, so he'd be running against another Anglo and that at least diminishes the ethnic failing. My gut is that King would still be the "honorary Hispanic" in such a race, being a Democrat, the son of a man people's parents voted for repeatedly, and having taken the time and effort to build a favorable impression among the state's educators-- one of the traditional paths to power here. But to answer what I think is the actual question, if Pearce's seat is in any danger from the Dems, the Republicans are in big, big, big trouble, and probably in Texas too... I'd expect that seat to be merely "next man up" there.
I always keep an eye on the Morning Consult Senate favorability ratings https://morningconsult.com/july-2017-senator-rankings/ Looks very good for the two seats Dems are targeting. Very weak support for Heller and Flake Jeff Flake 37% - 45% Dean Heller 41% - 33% But then the reality of the map sets in. Bottom line is that Dems are on defense. I have a good feeling about Heinrich and Casey. I worry about the 3 ladies. It's just not a good time for female Democratic politicians. It seems to motivate male Republican turnout. Baldwin and Stabenow may have a chance since there is a substantial number of registered Democrats in those states. But McCaskill feels like a loss with these numbers. Debbie Stabenow 45% - 37% Claire McCaskill 46% - 38% Martin Heinrich 48% - 30% Bob Casey 46% - 31% Tammy Baldwin 42% - 38% Interesting footnote is Bob Menenedez at 38% to 39%. I've been beating this drum for progressive Dems. The guy is swamped in corruption issues. He's probably the most beatable Dem in a primary. Two challengers already declared. Kim McCormick I know nothing about. The other is Sean Thom who does not seem to be a Berniecrat ... He's a teacher who seems to be carving out a traditional aspirational educator path.
Apparently, Kid Rock may be running for Senate in Michigan. Not sure if this is a publicity stunt but it's, um, odd.
He says it isn't... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/13/...but-dont-assume-anything.html?ref=todayspaper However, If Robert James Ritchie — also known by his rap-rock moniker, Kid Rock — is running for the United States Senate in Michigan, he hasn’t informed the Michigan Republican Party. Of course, he could be running as a Democrat. But that would be a strange turn, given that Kid Rock endorsed then-candidate Donald J. Trump and then paid him a memorable visit at the White House after Mr. Trump won the election.
It is my not-so-humble opinion that GOP retirements will begin in earnest on Wednesday, no matter the outcome of the Senate vote to open debate.
Man, Mitch McConnell really screwed Dean Heller. He voted for the skinny repeal, and it didn't pass. So Dems in Nevada will be motivated, but GOPs will be demoralized.
Not only that, but he went against Nevada's GOP governor, Brian Sandoval. Coincidentally, Sandoval, who was elected in 2010, is term-limited out in 2018.
I love the way she's embracing healthcare (it's taken Dems a long time to get there) and going straight after McConnell and one of his supporters in the House. Not just relying on her military background, which would be one approach in KY. I know nothing about this person, but, damn, she knows how to make a good first impression.
Impressive ... Although it looks like she has to get through a tough primary opponent first. Reggie Thomas, an African American state senator with a law degree from Harvard. This is the best crop of incoming young Democratic talent in at least a generation. Just have to hope that some of them get to go to Washington. I read somewhere recently that there are already 209 challenging Democratic House campaigns for 2018. Compared to only 23 Republicans.
They dislike all other congress people, but like their own district congress people (judging by re-election rates). That is why those pols are pretty stupid IMO. If you took a pol of every single congressperson in their respective districts/states and averaged those results, you would get a better picture.
Maybe more for the gubernatorial races thread. https://www.yahoo.com/news/west-virginia-governor-democrat-switch-republican-204707424.html
Joe Manchin sees the tea leaves, It is still better to have him than a republican, but I would not be shocked if he switched parties. http://nypost.com/2017/08/07/senato...y-doesnt-give-a-s-t-if-it-costs-him-election/
Last night, Trump tossed out the GOP for a foolish short-term deal with Dems that probably won't even happen. Ryan and Mitch are now the targets of Breitbart campaigns and have been labeled RINOs by Lou Dobbs and the FOX networks. Republicans not in the Freedom Caucus are going to see that the price of leadership is career-killing failure. They are going to see that they will never get tax reform ans Obamacare repeal. The way things are going, they might not even keep the government open for more than a few months at a time due to the Freedom Caucus. They are going to start retiring. Here's a prediction. Before Christmas Day, fifteen more GOP incumbents will announce retirement. Not a run for another office. Retirement.
TYT endorsed Hillary after the primaries...I was trying myself and hoping that everyone was moving past 2016 as well, but this damn book (stack of victim cards) dug everything back up. [emoji35] Midterms are just around the corner. None of this is constructive in any way! For all parties involved, why rehash this yet again!?
Charlie Dent (PA-15, PVI R+4) has announced his retirement. But the linked news story was an hour or two before your post, so it doesn't count as the first of the 15 you predicted.