2018 Colorado Buffaloes

Interview with Jorian.

https://pac-12.com/videos/jorian-baucom-talks-chemistry-teammates-one-most-dynamic-offenses-country

 

RPI:

Pac-12 ... Just gets weirder.

1. Stanford
14. Oregon (at Washington State this weekend)
16. Southern California
27. Washington State (defeated UCLA, up 2)
33, UCLA (lost to Washington State, up 16)
36. Arizona
60. Colorado (sixty ... not a misprint)
72. Arizona State
84. Washington
96. California
161. Utah
172. Oregon State

Others:
2. Santa Clara (I'm flattered, but ...)
82. Missouri (the highest RPI team we have played, could be why ours is low)
112. Michigan State
131. Marquette
137. Iowa State
143. Colorado State
146. Denver
154. Texas San Antonio
196. Air Force
258. Utah Valley

Rankings seem to think a bit more of the Pac-12:

1. Stanford
2. Southern California
9. Washington State
16. UCLA
18. Colorado
34. Oregon
37. Arizona

BTW, UCLA outplayed Washington State, shots 19-6, on goal 9-3, corner kicks 8-0, but if you don't score ...

 

derbarkasmann, you're absolutely right about why Colorado's RPI ranking is #60, their strength of schedule has been very poor. They've played only one team with a winning record at this point in the season. One way to look at it is that so far, all they've shown in their results is that they're better than the #82 team. They need to have some very good Pac 12 results if they want to get into the post-season.

 

UCLA went up that much because they played WSU That's the effect of adding a strong-SOS +8=0-0 to their Elements 2 and 3. (Later, all Pac-12 schools will get the same WSU bump, whatever it ends up being, and UCLA's temporary-gain will converge to that final bump, so it is symmetric across the round-robin.)

Oregon is having a resurgent year. Colorado looks formidable, but those intra-state rivalry games are a tad (or a lot) below their level, and so they're amorphously "somewhere above that".

UCLA dominated in stats because we let them do that, by design. I think we envisioned that we could (A) fight in midfield for 35% possession and get killed on swift combos. Instead, we (b) let them have ~80% and midfield for most of the game, and used our speed to lurk in lanes at arc top and dare them to run-run-pass early-enough to pierce it. That is a known weakness in UCLA's attack: a tad too much solo-stud dribbles and slightly-late passing to not-quite-moving off-ball runs, which are vulnerable to active disruptions. (Try this yourself when you play them; they're uniquely vulnerable to it because they think they can attack anything.) Maybe 1/3 of UCLA's stats were truly from them outplaying our scheme (c.f. the backheels and dummies), and we could have lost on those shots.

 

Colorado College is looking pretty good this year, possibly a conference champion.

 

Second half water break. I'm traveling, but am watching the second half. ASU seems to be able to attack with a large number of players, which we are not doing. And although I am not a trained referee and am biased in my observations, calls do not seem to be going our way.

Erin is back !!

 

Buffs 1, Arizona State 1

Fortunate.

I missed the first half, but the part I saw, they outplayed us. Not massively, but they did. We will need to come up with something by Sunday.

Except we were all over them in the second overtime. Jorian was taken down in the box with two minutes left, no call. Shots 28-22, on goal 13-7, corners 8-7, all Sun Devils, the last OT closed the statistical gaps.

 

The same could be true for visiting teams playing a mile high.

 

Some thoughts ...

103 degrees, I could see it really being a problem in August when it's 115. Heat is an advantage for an Arizona team, just as altitude is for the Buffs, and to a slightly lesser extent, Utah. In terms of danger, a lot more people die from heat than from thin air.

I think being at home is more of an advantage than either 100 degrees or 5,400 feet. And we've talked all season about how deep the Buffs are, and with Erin back (she looked SO good), the only player still lost to injury is Hannah. This far into the season, most teams are dealing with injuries. Nobody HAD to play the full 110 minutes. Buffs used eight substitutes.

Shots in the two overtimes were 7-6 Buffs, in terms of shooting, both teams cranked it up in overtime, ASU in the first, Buffs in the second. And except for the last few days, it's been hot in Boulder. 90's, and the sun is more intense at altitude. It was 96 when we played Utah Valley.

It looked to me like the Buffs away from home, not being able to overcome a good team. My concern is the extent to which they outplayed us in the second half and first overtime. Sunday we're still away from home, facing a better team than we just did.

 

Thursday game at 2:00pm in Arizona does not make sense especially when it is the home school's choice. There have been some games played in the heat to get on PAC 12 TV (2017 4:30pm game) but this was not the case. Perhaps the lights didn't work or they wanted fewer fans. Bad for the game and dangerous for the players. This isn't leaving the grass a little long or moving the game up so that a team get make a flight. Looking at the ASU schedule, they play WSU at 11:00am on a Thursday. Last year every Thursday/Friday game was at 7:00pm except for the 4:30pm for TV. You would hope you would want the best from both teams in the best possible environment especially in the PAC 12.

 

Buffs 1, Arizona 1

We trailed for 14 seconds. I didn't watch. JJ made the save of the geologic era to preserve the tie. Stats were shots 17-15 Wildcats, on goal 6-4 and corner kicks 5-1 Buffs. Did anybody watch the game? Tell us about it please.

Washington State defeated Oregon State 2-0. The Beavers' goalkeeper, who had a very long day against us, made eleven saves and only gave up one goal until she was ejected in the 65th minute. WSU scored two seconds later on the free kick. Shots were 34-5, on goal 15-1, corner kicks 8-0.

Three ties are bit of a blemish, but we are still undefeated and just survived a not easy road trip. Washington State is 10-0. Thursday afternoon at Prentup Field. If we want to give the feeble RPI a bit of a boost, that's the chance.

It took overtime, but Stanford owned the game after halftime and defeated USC 1-0.

Only three games in, we are fifth in the Pac-12, where we were picked.

Highlights: https://pac-12.com/videos/recap-colorado-arizona-womens-soccer-ends-draw-following-double-overtime

 

7-3, RPI 59, Buffs are 57.

 

The newest RPI:

1. Stanford
14. Southern California
22. Arizona (up from 36, the tie with us seems to have impressed the RPI)
(I know, there's more to it than that ...)
23. Oregon (The Ducks seem to be for real this year, lost 2-1 at Washington State but gave them a very tough time.)
24. Washington State (10-0-0, the only perfect record in the country)
30. UCLA (they've had injuries)
57. Colorado
68. Washington
74. Arizona State
95. California
120. Utah (won 2-0 at Arizona State)
173. Oregon State

Teams we've played:

96. Missouri
116. Denver (much better than the last couple of years)
123. Michigan State
126. Marquette
141. Iowa State
151. Texas San Antonio
152. Colorado State (best team they've ever had?)
221. Air Force
267. Utah Valley

Nice to be undefeated, but a schedule like that sure makes it hard to have a glorious RPI. We have five games with teams RPId ahead of us, four of them at home. Good to see Denver doing well.

Again, the rankings have a better opinion of the Pac-12:

1. Stanford
2. Southern California (received one #1 vote even though lost to Stanford)
7. Washington State
15. UCLA
20. Colorado
33. Arizona
39. Oregon

 

GAME DAY!! #skobuffs! Finally some cooler game temps!!
Also it is Family weekend, so we made the trip and will be at both games.

 

Cool !! The Webb family includes a daughter who has been a blessing to this team.

Also cool ... about 50 degrees on Sunday, snow possible on Monday.


People who have followed the team longer than I have all seem to agree that this is the best team we've ever had. But all we really know is that we are better than teams with RPIs between 96 and 267. We're unbeaten twelve games in, which has certainly never happened before, but with an RPI that could very well not get us into the playoffs at all.

We're about to find out if the team is as good as some of us think. Eight games left, four with teams ranked ahead of us, five with teams with RPIs ahead of us,
all but one of those (Stanford) at home. Assuming that we would not defeat Stanford here, there or anywhere, the schedule gives us all four opportunities to move up in the world at home. Beginning today, against the only team out of 335 with an unblemished record, 10-0-0. Too bad it's a Thursday afternoon, attendance will likely be feeble.