Time to compare odds from before the draw, to current odds. To see who won the draw, so to speak, who lost it, and who was unchanged. Of course, since we are looking at odds to Win It All, not just to advance to quarterfinals, Roma and Porto are still going to be longshots, even if they were each big winners today by drawing each other. Here, through the italicized part, is there things stood a day after all the final matches were played. Updates are in ALL CAPS and to the right. Current favorites to win by shortest odds available (across multiple online betting sites per oddschecker): ManC 3.5 now 3.6 NOW 3.05 Barca 5.5 now 5 NOW 3.75 Juve 5.5 now 6 NOW 6.5 PSG 8.5 now 7 after winning tough group slight drop to 8 STAYED 8 Bayern 10 now 9 won but looked bad now 11 NOW 14 Real 12 same STAYED 12 Atleti 14 now 18 due to 2nd place finish now 20 NOW 25 Liverpool 16 now 9 due to surviving tough group now 10 NOW 12 -----big jump Dortmund 40 now 33 after 1st place STILL 33 ManU 40 same now 50 as they continue to sputter NOW 60 Tottenham 80 now 27 after surviving our tough group slight drop to 30 NOW 28 Ajax 100 now 80 NOW 100 Porto 150 now 125 back to 150 NOW 125 Roma 150 now 125 back to 150 NOW 100 Lyon 200 now 150 now 125 after surviving NOW 175 Schalke 250 now 200 NOW 300 https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner
Instead of odds now looking at how the SPI model has changed, I posted this pre-draw, sadly is just shows the 6 top favorites - AGAIN the GRAPHIC is PRE-DRAW: ManC - remains 1st and keeps its high 19% chance to win it all, also is rated a 90% chance to beat Schalke to advance to quarterfinals (the highest odds of all to make quarters which makes sense since basically the top seed drew the bottom seed) Bayern - tumbled from 2nd to tied for 4th most favorite and from 12% win it all to 10% win it all, which makes sense as they are only given a 52% shot to advance past Liverpool to the quarterfinals Barca - moved up from 3rd to 2nd favorite, from 12% to 14% to win, and are given a 84% chance of beating Lyon to make quarters. Juventus - stayed in a tie for 4th and at 10%, despite only a 62% chance to beat Atleti PSG - moved up to 3rd favorite and bumped from 10% to 11% to win it all despite drawing "mighty" ManU whom they have a 75% chance of seeing off Liverpool - moved from a tie for 4th place at 10% to alone in 6th place at 9%, after drawing Bayern, whom they are only given a 48% chance of beating. After those 6 teams I don't have the exact pre-draw, post match day 6 odds, but you are in for a shocker as to their 7th most favorite team: 7 - AJAX - 7% to win it ALL, and 56% chance to beat REAL 8 - REAL - 5% win it all, only 44% chance to beat Ajax 9 - SPURS - 4% win it all, 56% chance to beat BVB 10 - ATLETI - 3% win it all, only 38% to beat Juve 11 - BVB - 3% win it all, 44% beat Spurs 12 - Porto - 2% win it all, 54% beat Roma 13 - Roma - 1% win it all, 46% beat Porto 14 - ManU - less than 1% to win it all, only 25% beat PSG 15 - Lyon - less than 1% to win it all, only 16% beat Barca 16 - Schalke - less than 1% to win it all, only 10% beat ManC https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ Comparing the odds with the computer's % chance to win the money could be made betting on Ajax (7% win it all, vs. 100:1 payout), others, if you trust the computer, don't pay out that well but are still in the money: Liverpool, Bayern, Spurs, and Porto.
Europa League last-32 draw in full Viktoria Plzen v Dinamo Zagreb Club Brugge v Red Bull Salzburg Rapid Vienna v Inter Milan Slavia Prague v Genk Krasnodar v Bayer Leverkusen FC Zurich v Napoli Malmo v Chelsea Shakhtar Donetsk v Eintracht Frankfurt Celtic v Valencia Rennes v Real Betis Olympiakos v Dinamo Kiev Lazio v Sevilla Fenerbache v Zenit St Petersburg Sporting Lisbon v Villarreal Bate Borisov v Arsenal Galatasaray v Benfica PRE DRAW THESE WERE THE ODDS for just the teams at 50:1 or lower to win it all, now updated to the RIGHT in ALL CAPS: Chelsea 5:1 NOW 4.5 Arsenal 7.5 now 6.5 NOW NAPOLI 12 NOW 7 Sevilla 12 now 14 (real work to do today, tied for 2nd in group, but getting it done in early game) NOW 16 INTER 16 NOW 11 VALENCIA 20 NOW 25 Villarreal 25 now 33 (tied atop a very wide open group 7, 7, 6, & 5 points, but getting it done in early game) NOW 33 Bayer 25 now 33 NOW 35 Eintracht Frankfurt 33 now 30 NOW 35 Lazio 33 NOW 40 Betis 33 now 30 NOW 35 BENFICA 33 NOW 35 Salzburg 40 NOW 25 Zenit 40 NOW 50 Sporting Lisbon 40 NOW 50 SHAKTAR 40 SAME If you compare the odds to the computer model (and believe the computer model) the good payouts are on Valencia, Salzburg, Betis, Shaktar, and to a lesser extent Inter, Sevilla, Benfica, and Eintracht. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/
I understand why the Copa del Rey is not exactly high on most people's list but I highly value it and appreciate it when the players and coaches take it seriously for this reason: The Liga and Champions League are not guaranteed. No matter how often key players are rested during midweek Copa action throughout January there is no assurance that come May Barca will still be challenging in La Liga and lining up to compete in the Champions final. For me, staying focused and getting the job done in the knockout rounds of the Copa in January/February allows for at least knowing that if things go wrong in February, March and/or April, the Copa del Rey final at least gives us something to look forward to near the end of the season. And I quite enjoy having that card in the back pocket once the business part of the season arrives thick and fast, especially after the FIFA calendar dates in March. It also keeps alive the dream of winning another Treble. The Triplet cannot be achieved without the Copa and I'm quite proud that Barcelona are the only La Liga club to have achieved it, not to mention the only club throughout Europe to have achieved it TWICE. If Barca fail to reach the Copa final, the prospect of a trophyless season just adds more pressure to each fixture from February onwards. My feelings, anyway. Downplay the Copa at your own peril.
Also, this would be a never-done-before 5-peat. Our current 4-peat is great but it only ties us with Madrid FC (Real Madrid's prior name) and Athletic Bilbao. And I agree on the triple. But here's the thing, while I value the Copa for the reasons you said, and the 5-peat chance, it remains the 3rd most important of the 3 trophies by a good distance. So while I want us to win it, I want us to win it playing not just Cillessen over ter Stegen, but also Miranda as much as Alba; Chumi as much as Pique; Alena, Samper, Denis, and Puig as much as Raki, Vidal, Busi, and Arthur; Malcom and Munir as much as Leo, Suarez, Dembele; Etc. Sure, if we draw Real or Atletico early we might justify a grand once team, but by and large lets advance while giving minutes to squad players. Maybe not all at once but a good mix of starters and non-starters. Let's not be gassed by another long CdR slog just before the CL slog starts.
Two more reasons for me (Although only one can happen in a given CdR year): 1a) If a Madrid team is not playing Barca in the final then the final is likely to be in Madrid and it pisses off LPB fans when Barca fans party all day in the Plaza Mayor in Madrid; 1b) If LPB is in the final against Barca, it makes for a great event (and no one can argue that CdR is meaningless is such a situation).
Now that we have drawn Lyon, I haven't seen much mention of this, but them being without Fekir for the first home leg is huge. He is their captain, their top ranked player in CL, co-leading scorer, co-MOTM, 3rd highest in assists, all per Whoscored, and seemingly their leader in rumors of leaving to a bigger club, and highest priced at an estimated 70M per transfermarkt.
Just as in the other two competitions, success in the Copa is not guaranteed irregardless of which players are on the pitch. I'm not convinced that the January Copa run directly leads to UCL ouster. After all, in the past three seasons they progressed passed the Round of 16 against decent opposition before exiting in the quarterfinals. Here's a look at the past three seasons after Barca had advanced past the Copa semifinals. FEBRUARY 2018 Thur 8: CdR-Sf2 (A) Valencia 2-0 (3-0 aggregate) Sun 11: J23 (H) Getafe 0-0 midweek 13-15: --- Sat 17: J24 (A) Eibar 2-0 Tue 20: UCL-2R1 (A) Chelsea 1-1 Sat 24: J25 (H) Girona 6-1 Thur 1: J26 (A) Las Palmas 1-1 MARCH 2018 Sun 4: J27 (H) Atlético Madrid 1-0 Wed 7: ScCat (N) Espanyol 0-0, 4-2 penalties Sat 10: J28 (A) Málaga 2-0 Wed 14: UCL-2R2 (H) Chelsea 3-0 Sun 18: J29 (H) Athletic Bilbao 2-0 midweek 20-21: weekend 22-24: FIFA calendar midweek 25-27: FIFA calendar Sat 31: J30 (A) Sevilla 2-2 APRIL 2018 Wed 4: UCL-Qf1 (H) Roma 4-1 Sat 7: J31 (H) Leganés 3-1 Tue 10: UCL-Qf2 (A) Roma 0-3 (4-4 aggregate, away goals) KNOCKED OUT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FEBRUARY 2017 Tue 7: Copa-Sf2 (H) Atlético Madrid 1-1 (3-2 aggregate) Sat 11: J22 (A) Alavés 6-0 Tue 14: UCL-2R1 (A) Paris St. Germain 0-4 Sun 19: J23 (H) Leganés 2-1 midweek 21-23: --- Sun 26: J24 (A) Atlético Madrid 2-1 MARCH 2017 Wed 1: J25 (H) Sporting Gijón 6-1 Sat 4: J26 (H) Celta 5-0 Wed 8: UCL-2R2 (H) Paris St. Germain 6-1 (6-5 aggregate) Sun 12: J27 (A) Deportivo La Coruña 1-2 midweek 14-16: --- Sun 19: J28 (H) Valencia 4-2 midweek 22-23: weekend 24-25: FIFA calendar midweek 26-28: FIFA calendar APRIL 2017 Sun 2: J29 (A) Granada 4-1 Wed 5: J30 (H) Sevilla 3-0 Sat 8: J31 (A) Màlaga 0-2 Tue 11: UCL-Qf1 (A) Juventus 0-3 Sat 15: J32 (H) Real Sociedad 3-2 Wed 19: UCL-Qf2 (H) Juventus 0-0 (0-3 aggregate) KNOCKED OUT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FEBRUARY 2016 Wed 10: Copa-Sf2 (A) Valencia 1-1 (8-1 aggregate) Sat 14: J24 (H) Celta 6-1 Wed 17: J16 (A) Sporting Gijón 3-1 Sat 20: J25 (A) Las Palmas 2-1 Tue 23: UCL-2R1 (A) Arsenal 2-0 Sun 28: J26 (H) Sevilla 2-1 MARCH 2016 Thur 3: J27 (A) Rayo Vallecano 5-1 Sun 6: J28 (H) Eibar 4-0 midweek 8-10: --- Sat 12: J29 (A) Getafe 6-0 Wed 16: UCL-2R2 (H) Arsenal 3-1 Sun 20: J30 (H) Villarreal 2-2 midweek 22-23: weekend 24-26: FIFA calendar midweek 27-29: FIFA calendar APRIL 2016 Sat 2: J31 (H) Real Madrid 1-2 Tue 5: UCL-Qf1 (H) Atlético Madrid 2-1 Sat 9: J32 (A) Real Sociedad 0-1 Wed 13: UCL-Qf2 (A) Atlético Madrid 0-2 (2-3 aggregate) KNOCKED OUT Do you really believe Barca would have progressed past the April quarterfinals in any of those seasons had the team not played six Copa midweeks in January/February? What's the threshold? At what point in the January Copa run should Barca be eliminated for people to be satisfied that the squad will be fresh enough to take on any and all comers for the April UCL ties?
Great research makes a compelling case that the QF CL knockouts were all 2 months or more after our last CdR match pre-Final. We are already committed to two more CdR matches in January v. Levante. IF we lost there (hard to imagine after 0-5 at their place but...) we would be "spared" 4 CdR matches. But we just won 0-5 at their place so let's assume we manage to advance to the quarterfinals. If we lose then, we have just saved ourselves 2 matches of wear and tear in late January / early February. So not much saved at all. But I do still think that while we try to win we rotate a bit more. I do still think that the end of December gives a nice respite from games in Spain (Liga, CdR, and CL all off for 2 weeks), but with CdR we jump right into 2 matches per week in January, which continues so long as we make it to Semifinals of CdR, and then we essentially have 1 or 2 midweeks off with club for the rest of February, March, and April. I'm not counting the final midweeks in March as off as nearly all our players are traveling to and then training with their NT for those 2 midweeks, reporting after the March 18-20th club match, training with NT, playing 2 games, then returning to train with club before diving right back into club matches. So best case they don't travel far and play only 2x instead of 3x as they otherwise might with their club (midweek, weekend, midweek). So point is even while I see your points - 2 months removed - it adds up to 3 months of playing 8-9 matches a month, instead of 2 months of that. Not a causal connection, but the wear and tear builds and that's why we need to rest key players here and there, even for just a match or a half match.
I respectfully disagree with some posters here. While winning the Copa is nice all things being equal, many midweek games in January and February add a lot of wear and tear on the squad. That can't be denied.
No doubt. I've never suggested it doesn't. But wouldn't that wear and tear affect Barca more in the UCL Round of 16 more than it would two months later in the UCL quarterfinals? When was the last time Barca were knocked out of Europe at the Round of 16 stage? (Hint: Before Pep took over as coach) But for arguments sake, let's pretend in the last three seasons Barca had been knocked out of the Copa at the Round of 16 stage (early-mid January). Here's how the schedule would have looked without the Copa quarters and semis. JANUARY 2018 Thur 11: CdR-5R2 (H) Celta Vigo KNOCKED OUT Sun 14: J19 (A) Real Sociedad midweek 16-18: Copa-Qf1 Sun 21: J20 (A) Betis midweek 23-25: Copa-Qf2 Sun 28: J21 (H) Alavés midweek 30-1: Copa-Sf1 FEBRUARY 2018 Sun 4: J22 (A) Espanyol midweek 6-8: CdR-Sf2 Sun 11: J23 (H) Getafe midweek 13-15: --- Sat 17: J24 (A) Eibar Tue 20: UCL-2R1 (A) Chelsea Sat 24: J25 (H) Girona Thur 1: J26 (A) Las Palmas MARCH 2018 Sun 4: J27 (H) Atlético Madrid Wed 7: ScCat (N) Espanyol Sat 10: J28 (A) Málaga Wed 14: UCL-2R2 (H) Chelsea Sun 18: J29 (H) Athletic Bilbao midweek 20-21: weekend 22-24: FIFA calendar midweek 25-27: FIFA calendar Sat 31: J30 (A) Sevilla APRIL 2018 Wed 4: UCL-Qf1 Roma Sat 7: J31 (H) Leganés Tue 10: UCL-Qf2 Roma - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JANUARY 2017 Wed 11: Copa-5R2 (H) Athletic Bilbao KNOCKED OUT Sat 14: J18 (H) Las Palmas midweek 17-19: Copa-Qf1 Sun 22: J19 (A) Eibar midweek 24-26: Copa-Qf2 Sun 29: J20 (A) Real Betis FEBRUARY 2017 midweek 31-2: Copa-Sf1 Sat 4: J21 (H) Athletic Bilbao Tue 7: Copa-Sf2 Sat 11: J22 (A) Alavés Tue 14: UCL-2R1 (A) Paris St. Germain Sun 19: J23 (H) Leganés midweek 21-23: --- Sun 26: J24 (A) Atlético Madrid MARCH 2017 Wed 1: J25 (H) Sporting Gijón Sat 4: J26 (H) Celta Wed 8: UCL-2R2 (H) Paris St. Germain Sun 12: J27 (A) Deportivo La Coruña midweek 14-16: --- Sun 19: J28 (H) Valencia midweek 22-23: weekend 24-25: FIFA calendar midweek 26-28: FIFA calendar APRIL 2017 Sun 2: J29 (A) Granada Wed 5: J30 (H) Sevilla Sat 8: J31 (A) Màlaga Tue 11: UCL-Qf1 (A) Juventus Sat 15: J32 (H) Real Sociedad Wed 19: UCL-Qf2 (H) Juventus - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JANUARY 2016 midweek 12-14: CdR-5R2 (A) Espanyol KNOCKED OUT Sun 17: J20 (H) Athletic Bilbao midweek 19-21: CdR-Qf1 Sat 23: J21 (A) Málaga midweek 26-28: CdR-Qf2 Sat 30: J22 (H) Atlético Madrid FEBRUARY 2016 midweek 2-4: CdR-Sf1 Sun 7: J23 (A) Levante Wed 10: CdR-Sf2 Sat 14: J24 (H) Celta Wed 17: J16 (A) Sporting Gijón Sat 20: J25 (A) Las Palmas Tue 23: UCL-2R1 (A) Arsenal Sun 28: J26 (H) Sevilla MARCH 2016 Thur 3: J27 (A) Rayo Vallecano Sun 6: J28 (H) Eibar midweek 8-10: --- Sat 12: J29 (A) Getafe Wed 16: UCL-2R2 (H) Arsenal Sun 20: J30 (H) Villarreal midweek 22-23: weekend 24-26: FIFA calendar midweek 27-29: FIFA calendar APRIL 2016 Sat 2: J31 (H) Real Madrid Tue 5: UCL-Qf1 (H) Atlético Madrid Sat 9: J32 (A) Real Sociedad Wed 13: UCL-Qf2 (A) Atlético Madrid Do you honestly believe the lack of four midweek ties in January/February would have saved Barca from UCL elimination two months later? Because not once, after getting knocked out of Europe in April, can I recall anyone suggesting that the Copa run to the final was a reason for elimination. It was all about the "clueless" coaches who didn't put out the correct starting lineups/formations, made the wrong substitutions, waited too long to make any substitutions or being the victim of poor officiating. Oh yes, I agree depending on the quality of opposition and what needs to be done in the second leg to assure advancement to the next round. I'm not saying put out the strongest lineups possible every time. But nor do I think we should see the type of lineups we see against Segunda B sides in the Round of 32. Like I said, I enjoy having the prospect of the Copa final to look forward to if there's little to play for in May. After all, the domestic cup is considered to be a major trophy. And you can't achieve the Treble......
Honestly the lack of four midweek ties could have saved us from elimination in the QF... The teams that come into these crucial ties even a little bit fresher have a big edge not to mention the lessened risk of key injuries if fewer fixtures are played. We've all been spoiled by some of our past teams being so dominant to win the treble to appreciate what a difficult accomplishment a treble is. We are far better off focusing on the CL come February and if our rotated squads can get us to the Copa final then great. If we win CL but lose the Copa I promise I won't lose any sleep over it!
CDR is a curse for Barca, the sooner Barca is out the better for everyone. Its a meaningless trophy as we have seen proven year after year, it doesn't carry the weight needed. At this point it's CL or nothing. When it comes down to the wire CL blows everything out of the water, just look at past years. Gunning for treble with CDR will leave you a Messi voted 5th best in the world.
By February the Copa is at the semifinal stage. And focusing solely on the Champions League does not guarantee success. So why not go for the Copa when it's there for the taking? I haven't lost any sleep the past three seasons when the Copa was won, with or without La Liga..
Since it's meaningless to you I challenge you not to post in any of the Copa threads this season. The fact that UCL success determines the destination of the Ballon says more about that award than what it supposedly represents.
Disagree with all that. But yeah... if LPB win the CL then, admittedly, that really overshadows any La Liga success Barca might have. But if neither of us win CL, then a domestic double looks pretty good IMO. CL will be very difficult this season. There are more legit contenders than any season that I can remember. You have the traditional contenders who are still dangerous, and at the same time Juve, City, Liverpool, PSG, Dortmund and Atletico all appear dangerous as well. I wouldn't mind going far in CdR just to give more playing time/experience to the fringe players like Arthur, Malcom, Semedo, Vidal, Coutinho, Dembele, Lenglet, etc. I don't think there as big of a difference between the regular starting XI (whatever that is) and the next-best 5 or 6 players on the squad as in some previous seasons, so don't need to protect the starting XI so much.
There are no guarantees but we give ourselves a better chance of being fresh and not having injuries. Last year we had an exhausted squad by the time April rolled around. Even Messi picked up a knock if I remember correctly. Playing a CdR match or two in January becomes a huge deal if one of our irreplaceable starters gets seriously hurt. As is most often the case especially in the latter stages CL, the team that peaks health-wise and form-wise is the one that wins. Health being even the more important of the two IMO. Look at Juventus and Bayern ravaged by injuries last year. LPB got out early in the Copa and had a bunch of guys injured in December and January but they were the healthiest team by March/April facing a bunch of depleted rosters. In many years that's the reality. Copa is more of a title that you just collect along the way if you're a top team. Not a title you should be gunning for in my eyes.
There is no debate. People who actually watch futbol already know this. Others like Pele and Cristiano's fanboys are too subborn to admit the truth.
Hence my reply that I'm not asking for the strongest lineups possible. I still wonder at what stage of the Copa would it satisfy everyone that they get knocked out at. I'm guessing the way the schedule is laid out this season, avoiding the semifinals would make many happy. JANUARY 2019 midweek 1-3: Sun 6: J18 (A) Getafe 20:45 Thur 10: CdR-5R1 (A) Levante 21:30 Sun 13: J19 (H) Eibar 18:30 midweek 15-17: CdR-5R2 (H) Levante weekend 19-20: J20 (H) Leganés midweek 22-24: CdR-Qf1 weekend 26-27: J21 (A) Girona midweek 29-31: CdR-Qf2 FEBRUARY 2019 weekend 2-3: J22 (H) Valencia midweek 5-7 CdR-Sf1 weekend 9-10: J23 (A) Athletic Bilbao midweek 12-14: weekend 16-17: J24 (H) Real Valladolid Tue 19: UCL-2R1 (A) Olympique Lyon 21:00 weekend 23-24: J25 (A) Sevilla midweek 26-28: CdR-Sf2 MARCH 2019 weekend 2-3: J26 (A) Real Madrid
A couple good articles about the winners and losers in CL draw, this first one makes a point about how Barca and Real, like Bayern, are not at their best so far domestically and how that opens things up for other clubs: https://www.theringer.com/soccer/20...manchester-united-psg-liverpool-bayern-munich The second one is more based on the SPI prediction model and who did well statistically in terms of chances to make the quarterfinals (Roma and Porto did best drawing each other, followed by ManCity) and even win it all. This analysis looks just at SPI but it is near and dear to my heart as I often compare not only the changing SPI but also the changing book maker odds: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ue-draw-changed-each-clubs-odds-of-moving-on/
I know a few people here will like this but I'm no fan of this method at all. While looking at future dates I noticed that the draw for the quarterfinals will be made on Friday 15 March. Immediately following the quarterfinal draw, UEFA will conduct the draw for the semi-finals followed by a draw for the final to determine which half of the draw will be the designated 'home' team for the Madrid final. I prefer having a fresh draw after each round. For me, the anticipation of the draw is almost as fun and exciting as the matches themselves.
I did not know that was what they were doing this year either. I'm a bit mixed about it. The draws are pretty fascinating, but it is also cool knowing the path the final in advance, if your team is lucky enough to advance to the quarters, and it means you are super invested in the other quarterfinal, the winner of which your team will face in the semifinals if your team makes it. Found this on UEFA's website and it confirms what you said: 15 March, Nyon There are no seedings or country protection: any restrictions will be announced ahead of the draw. The semi-final draw will follow immediately. Road to Madrid 9/10 April: Quarter-finals, first leg 16/17 April: Quarter-finals, second leg 30 April/1 May: Semi-finals, first leg 7/8 May: Semi-finals, second leg Saturday 1 June: Final – Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2019/draws/round=2000982/