No no. Slates are wiped clean after the quarterfinals. He still has to sit out the quarterfinal first leg. In Ramos' case, even if the slate was wiped clean right now before the quarterfinals kicked off his first leg suspension would still be in force since it was imposed by UEFA upon further review.
UPDATING EUROPA Computer and Bookie odds POST DRAW Pre-draw computer to win: Post-draw unbold and to the right Chelsea 24% & 2.75:1 oddsmakers now 34% and 1.9 after Slavia draw plus Frankfurt/Benfica in semifinal (avoid 2nd, 3rd, and 4th favorites till final) Napoli 18% & 4 now 16% and 4 after drawing Arsenal Arsenal 15% & 4 now 13% and 5 Valencia 15% & 9 (one to bet IF you trust the computer) same 15% but odds down to 8 (still one to bet if you trust the computer) Benfica 11% & 14 (one to bet) 9% and 11 (neutral bet) Eintracht 10% &14 (one to bet) 8% and 11 Villarreal 7% & 18 (one to bet) Slavia Prague >1% PRE-DRAW Interestingly the top 6 of eight teams all have at least 50% odds of making the semifinals, which is sort of impossible but works out because they only give Slavia a 14% shot, and only give the favorites a 68% shot, and it is all dependent on the draw. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/ https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner Post draw odds of making semifinals range from 95%/5% for Chelsea/Slavia, to 64% Valencia, 53% Napoli, and 52% Benfica - so last 2 are really pick ems. I will wait to predict who advances till closer.
More detail above on what the odds were after the draw (and before the draw), but just wanted to post a quick update before the first legs get started. Betting odds from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner and SPI computer model % odds from here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ Favorite to WIN it ALL from top to bottom: ManCity longest odd pays just 2.4 & SPI gives them a 35% shot to win it all 79% to advance to semis Juve 3.5 BUT only 7% shot to win it all as only 56% to even make semis (terrible bet per SPI) Barca 3.5454 (39/11) 23% and 81% Liverpool 4.25 23% and 81% (ok bet per SPI) ManU 22 2% and 19% Tottenham 28 4% and 21% (ok bet per SPI) Ajax 40 4% and 44% (very good bet per SPI) Porto 87 2% and 19% (good bet per SPI)
Predictions Liverpool - Porto Tottenham - Manchester City Manchester United - Barcelona Ajax - Juventus I'm not predicting any upsets this round although every underdog except Porto has anywhere from a decent to a good chance.
Yeah, if you are talking about who makes the semifinals I agree that the four favorites you identified go through. If you are talking about who wins the first legs, I think Ajax wins at home, but Juve overcomes in Turin.
To go through: Liverpool - Porto Tottenham - Manchester City Manchester United - Barcelona Ajax - Juventus
Hope Ajax can do it, but guessing Juve prevail. Hell I hope Porto and Tottenham win too, but I don't give them much of a chance, Ajax definitely can do it.
Madrid were such a mess it's tough to know how good Ajax are. Juve will definitely not give them that much space.
ajax will pull an atalanta performance against juventus. at least they are not simone who always go easy on ronaldo and co
We do not need to judge Ajax in a vacuum (based on that one match). They are a good team, no doubt about it. Recall, Madrid weren’t playing too bad at the time of the first leg in AMS. There was also the CL group stage, another good measure to assess Ajax. Who has Juve looked good against this season? Talk about overrated....
Road to Baku, Azerbaijan update before kickoff. Pre and post draw odds are up above this is just a quick check in to see if anything has changed based on form before the games kick off (at which point the results of the first legs will change both bookie odds and also SPI computer predictions): Chelsea - favorite with bookies and computer 1.875, 35% win it all, 95% make semis Napoli - 4:1 but only 13% win it all with SPI, 51% beat Arsenal Arsenal - 6:1 but only 13% win, 49% beat Napoli Valencia - 8:1, 15% win, 62% beat Villarreal - only good $ bet (if you trust SPI) Benfica - 11:1, 9% win, 50% make semis by beating Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt - 11, 9%, 50% - same as Benfica Villarreal - 20:1, 5% win, 38% beat Valencia Slavia Prague 50:1, less than 1% win, only 5% beat Chelsea
AFTER THE FIRST LEG COME BIG UPDATES/CHANGES, new bookie favorite is Barca, new computer favorite is Liverpool. Pre kickoff write up is now in italics below: More detail above on what the odds were after the draw (and before the draw), but just wanted to post a quick update before the first legs get started. Betting odds from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winner and SPI computer model % odds from here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ Favorite to WIN it ALL from top to bottom: ManCity longest odd pays just 2.4 & SPI gives them a 35% shot to win it all 79% to advance to semis. Now after losing 1-0 in London the bookies will pay you 3.5 (2nd favorite) to pick them to win; the computer says only 21% chance to win it all, and only 49% to advance to semis (and 38% to make final)! Juve 3.5 BUT only 7% shot to win it all as only 56% to even make semis (terrible bet per SPI). Now after 1-1 in Amsterdam, bookies will pay 4:1 (4th favorite), and computer still doesn't fancy them much but improved to 9% win, and 61% advance to semis (24% make final). Still the worst bet per SPI. Barca 3.5454 (39/11) 23% and 81%. Now 2.5454 (bookie favorites), and 27% win it all, 90% advance to semis (and 47% make final). Liverpool 4.25 23% and 81% (ok bet per SPI). Now bookies' 3rd favorites, and computers new favorite: 3.75:1 payout, 29% win it all, 96% make semis (49% make final). Good bet if you trust SPI. ManU 22 2% and 19%. Now pays 50:1, less than 1% win, 10% beat Barca / make semis (2% make final) Tottenham 28 4% and 21% (ok bet per SPI). Now shorter odds at 16:1, 8% win, 51% advance to semis by beating ManC (24% make final). Decent bet if you trust SPI. Ajax 40 4% and 44% (very good bet per SPI). Now same 40:1 odds, but SPI is mixed, win it all increased to 5%, but beating Juve reduced to 39% (14% make final). BEST BET IF YOU TRUST SPI. Porto 87 2% and 19% (good bet per SPI). Now pays 300:1, less than 1% win, 4% to make semis, 1% to make final.
EUROPA UPDATE - what a difference a day and first leg makes, here is what I posted yesterday in italics, updates follow with italics off: Road to Baku, Azerbaijan update before kickoff. Pre and post draw odds are up above this is just a quick check in to see if anything has changed based on form before the games kick off (at which point the results of the first legs will change both bookie odds and also SPI computer predictions): Chelsea - favorite with bookies and computer 1.875, 35% win it all, 95% make semis. Took all game to get a single away goal and win but now an even bigger favorite, 1.7 odds, 99% advance, same 35% win it all Napoli - 4:1 but only 13% win it all with SPI, 51% beat Arsenal. Huge away loss, now the 5th favorite at 13:1 odds, only 13% to advance, 3% win it all. Arsenal - 6:1 but only 13% win, 49% beat Napoli. Two early home goals and a clean sheet boost them to 2nd favorite by bookies, 3rd by SPI computer, now 3.25:1 odds, 87% to advance over Napoli, 21% win. Valencia - 8:1, 15% win, 62% beat Villarreal - only good $ bet (if you trust SPI). Two huge late goals for a 1-3 away win at Villarreal shorten their odds to 5:1, and improve SPI %s to 97% to advance and 23% win it all. Still a fair bet if you trust SPI even a little, but really the time to place that bet was before yesterday's game. Benfica - 11:1, 9% win, 50% make semis by beating Frankfurt. Got a 4-2 home win, but still have a bit of work to do in Germany, now 8:1, 77% to advance, 13% win it all. Eintracht Frankfurt - 11, 9%, 50% - same as Benfica. Lost a player and the game but a 2nd late away goal gives them a chance, 25:1 odds, 23% to advance, 4% win it all = a fair bet. Villarreal - 20:1, 5% win, 38% beat Valencia. Bad 1-3 home loss now 150:1, 3% to advance, less than 1% to win. Slavia Prague 50:1, less than 1% win, only 5% beat Chelsea. If only they'd kept out the late away goal, but no, 100:1 odds now, 1% to advance, and way less than that to win.
Big changes after half of each Semifinal is set, new updates in bold and at the end of each team's summary: AFTER THE FIRST LEG COME BIG UPDATES/CHANGES, new bookie favorite is Barca, new computer favorite is Liverpool. Pre kickoff write up is now in italics below: More detail above on what the odds were after the draw (and before the draw), but just wanted to post a quick update before the first legs get started. Betting odds from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winnerand SPI computer model % odds from here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ Favorite to WIN it ALL from top to bottom: ManCity longest odd pays just 2.4 & SPI gives them a 35% shot to win it all 79% to advance to semis. Now after losing 1-0 in London the bookies will pay you 3.5 (2nd favorite) to pick them to win; the computer says only 21% chance to win it all, and only 49% to advance to semis (and 38% to make final)! ManCity now 2nd favorite by bookies and 3rd by computer, 2.85:1 odds, only 50% to advance to semis, 41% to make final (disrepect to Ajax), and 23% to win. If they win v. Spurs their odds will shrink and computer might favor them to win it all again. Juve 3.5 BUT only 7% shot to win it all as only 56% to even make semis (terrible bet per SPI). Now after 1-1 in Amsterdam, bookies will pay 4:1 (4th favorite), and computer still doesn't fancy them much but improved to 9% win, and 61% advance to semis (24% make final). Still the worst bet per SPI. OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Barca 3.5454 (39/11) 23% and 81%. Now 2.5454 (bookie favorites), and 27% win it all, 90% advance to semis (and 47% make final). Barca now favorite of computer and bookies, 2:1 to win, 52% to make final, 30% to win. Liverpool 4.25 23% and 81% (ok bet per SPI). Now bookies' 3rd favorites, and computers new favorite: 3.75:1 payout, 29% win it all, 96% make semis (49% make final). Good bet if you trust SPI. Bookies third favorite at 3.5, computer's 2nd favorite at 96% to make semis, 47% to make final, 27% to win. ManU 22 2% and 19%. Now pays 50:1, less than 1% win, 10% beat Barca / make semis (2% make final). OUT!!!!!!!!!! Tottenham 28 4% and 21% (ok bet per SPI). Now shorter odds at 16:1, 8% win, 51% advance to semis by beating ManC (24% make final). Decent bet if you trust SPI. Spurs 5th by bookies and computer of remaining 6 teams, 11:1 odds, 50% to make semis but only 25% to make final and 8% to win it all. Ajax 40 4% and 44% (very good bet per SPI). Now same 40:1 odds, but SPI is mixed, win it all increased to 5%, but beating Juve reduced to 39% (14% make final). BEST BET IF YOU TRUST SPI. Jumped to 4th with win over Juve, 7:1 bookies, 34% to make final, 11% win it all. Porto 87 2% and 19% (good bet per SPI). Now pays 300:1, less than 1% win, 4% to make semis, 1% to make final. Bookies and computer say Barca will play Liverpool giving Porto just 250:1 odds to win it all, 4% to make semis, less than 1% to make final, much less win it. Since the computer is saying Pool is virtually in semifinal (96%) you can see that it thinks the Barca v. Pool match will be a toss up 52% Barca make final, 47% Pool make final, which only gets narrower if Liverpool clinches their final spot.
Down to four, new updates added at the end for each club in italics: Big changes after half of each Semifinal is set, new updates in bold and at the end of each team's summary: AFTER THE FIRST LEG COME BIG UPDATES/CHANGES, new bookie favorite is Barca, new computer favorite is Liverpool. Pre kickoff write up is now in italics below: More detail above on what the odds were after the draw (and before the draw), but just wanted to post a quick update before the first legs get started. Betting odds from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/winnerand SPI computer model % odds from here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ Favorite to WIN it ALL from top to bottom: ManCity longest odd pays just 2.4 & SPI gives them a 35% shot to win it all 79% to advance to semis. Now after losing 1-0 in London the bookies will pay you 3.5 (2nd favorite) to pick them to win; the computer says only 21% chance to win it all, and only 49% to advance to semis (and 38% to make final)! ManCity now 2nd favorite by bookies and 3rd by computer, 2.85:1 odds, only 50% to advance to semis, 41% to make final (disrepect to Ajax), and 23% to win. If they win v. Spurs their odds will shrink and computer might favor them to win it all again. OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Juve 3.5 BUT only 7% shot to win it all as only 56% to even make semis (terrible bet per SPI). Now after 1-1 in Amsterdam, bookies will pay 4:1 (4th favorite), and computer still doesn't fancy them much but improved to 9% win, and 61% advance to semis (24% make final). Still the worst bet per SPI. OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! STILL OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Barca 3.5454 (39/11) 23% and 81%. Now 2.5454 (bookie favorites), and 27% win it all, 90% advance to semis (and 47% make final). Barca now favorite of computer and bookies, 2:1 to win, 52% to make final, 30% to win. Barca favored by bookies at 1.625:1 (13/8), but not by computer, 49% chance to make final (slight decrease now that Liverpool through, though that was epected), 34% chance to win (big increase after ManCity lost and Juve before that). Liverpool 4.25 23% and 81% (ok bet per SPI). Now bookies' 3rd favorites, and computers new favorite: 3.75:1 payout, 29% win it all, 96% make semis (49% make final). Good bet if you trust SPI. Bookies third favorite at 3.5, computer's 2nd favorite at 96% to make semis, 47% to make final, 27% to win. Second favorite by bookies 2.75:1 (11/4) but first favorite by compter, 51% to make final (beat Barca) and 35% to win it all. ManU 22 2% and 19%. Now pays 50:1, less than 1% win, 10% beat Barca / make semis (2% make final). OUT!!!!!!!!!! Still OUT!!!! Tottenham 28 4% and 21% (ok bet per SPI). Now shorter odds at 16:1, 8% win, 51% advance to semis by beating ManC (24% make final). Decent bet if you trust SPI. Spurs 5th by bookies and computer of remaining 6 teams, 11:1 odds, 50% to make semis but only 25% to make final and 8% to win it all. Made it through in a crazy match vs. City, bookies like them at 4:1, but computer puts them a smidge behind Ajax at 49% to make final and 15% to win it all. Ajax 40 4% and 44% (very good bet per SPI). Now same 40:1 odds, but SPI is mixed, win it all increased to 5%, but beating Juve reduced to 39% (14% make final). BEST BET IF YOU TRUST SPI. Jumped to 4th with win over Juve, 7:1 bookies, 34% to make final, 11% win it all. With ManCity's loss their odds and SPI % jumped, still just 4th with bookies (out of 4) but now 5:1, but computer gives them a slight edge over Spurs at 51% to make final, and 16% to win it all. Porto 87 2% and 19% (good bet per SPI). Now pays 300:1, less than 1% win, 4% to make semis, 1% to make final. Bookies and computer say Barca will play Liverpool giving Porto just 250:1 odds to win it all, 4% to make semis, less than 1% to make final, much less win it. OUT. Since the computer is saying Pool is virtually in semifinal (96%) you can see that it thinks the Barca v. Pool match will be a toss up 52% Barca make final, 47% Pool make final, which only gets narrower if Liverpool clinches their final spot. Now computer gives a slight edge to Liverpool over Barca 51%, but both Pool and Barca are heavily favored to win it all now that Man City (and before that Juve) were booted. Collectively they are given a 69% shot to win it all, Ajax & Spurs are thus given a 31% shot at winning it all even though one of them will be in the one-legged neutral venue final. Both semis are virtual toss ups. Of the four semifinalists Barca has the easiest domestic path, title almost wrapped up. Whereas Ajax and Liverpool are in neck and neck races with PSV and ManCity in their leagues. And while Spurs are not contending for a title they are in a 4 way race with Arsenal, ManU, and Chelsea for the last 2 CL places in EPL which figures to be a real dog fight as just 3 points separate Spurs 67 from ManU 64, with Arsenal and Chelsea each in between at 66 (Chelsea has played 34, the rest 33 of 38).
Worth pointing out that the SPI computer really out did the bookies in terms of Ajax's wins over Real Madrid and Juventus, and also the likelihood of Spurs advancing over ManCity after the 1-0 home win in the first leg. Not saying I'm ready to bet real money but just giving credit where it's due.
For those who don't have patience to read the update I provided above, here's the same SPI computer info in a flashy info-graphic:
UPDATE Now that they are also down to 4 in EUROPA's road to Baku: EUROPA UPDATE - what a difference a day and first leg makes, here is what I posted yesterday in italics, updates follow with italics off: Road to Baku, Azerbaijan update before kickoff. Pre and post draw odds are up above this is just a quick check in to see if anything has changed based on form before the games kick off (at which point the results of the first legs will change both bookie odds and also SPI computer predictions): Chelsea - favorite with bookies and computer 1.875, 35% win it all, 95% make semis. Took all game to get a single away goal and win but now an even bigger favorite, 1.7 odds, 99% advance, same 35% win it all. Still the favorites in both, 1.5:1 odds, and 65% to make finals, 35% to win. Napoli - 4:1 but only 13% win it all with SPI, 51% beat Arsenal. Huge away loss, now the 5th favorite at 13:1 odds, only 13% to advance, 3% win it all. OUT! Arsenal - 6:1 but only 13% win, 49% beat Napoli. Two early home goals and a clean sheet boost them to 2nd favorite by bookies, 3rd by SPI computer, now 3.25:1 odds, 87% to advance over Napoli, 21% win. Second favorite after beating Napoli, 2.5:1 odds, and 51% to make finals, 26% to win. Valencia - 8:1, 15% win, 62% beat Villarreal - only good $ bet (if you trust SPI). Two huge late goals for a 1-3 away win at Villarreal shorten their odds to 5:1, and improve SPI %s to 97% to advance and 23% win it all. Still a fair bet if you trust SPI even a little, but really the time to place that bet was before yesterday's game. Now very close to 2nd favorite Arsenal whom they play next, less so by bookies at 3.8:1, but 49% to make finals, and 25% to win. Benfica - 11:1, 9% win, 50% make semis by beating Frankfurt. Got a 4-2 home win, but still have a bit of work to do in Germany, now 8:1, 77% to advance, 13% win it all. OUT on away goals. Eintracht Frankfurt - 11, 9%, 50% - same as Benfica. Lost a player and the game but a 2nd late away goal gives them a chance, 25:1 odds, 23% to advance, 4% win it all = a fair bet. Fourth favorite by both bookies 5.5:1, and computer 35% to make finals (beat Chelsea), and 15% to win it all. Villarreal - 20:1, 5% win, 38% beat Valencia. Bad 1-3 home loss now 150:1, 3% to advance, less than 1% to win. Out of the tourney, but also out of relegation zone in La Liga, which is a fair trade if they can keep up. Slavia Prague 50:1, less than 1% win, only 5% beat Chelsea. If only they'd kept out the late away goal, but no, 100:1 odds now, 1% to advance, and way less than that to win. OUT though they had a goal fest late it was not enough.
Just for fun, I am thinking what pot of the CL 2019-20 group stage draw would the final 4 teams of this year’s CL be in if they do not win the CL (of course they would be in pot 1 if they do win): Barca: pot 1 Liverpool: probably pot 2, unless they win EPL Spurs: probably pot 3, but could move up if Roma and/or Shahktar don’t reach the group stage. Porto winning the Portugués league would also help. Ajax: pot 3 ( but first need to get theough two qualifying rounds)
Old post was getting really long so here's the quick update before semifinals kick off: Barca is bookie favorite but Liverpool is slight favorite of the SPI computer model on 538 (links to both in post I'm quoting). Barca 1.625:1 payoff to win; SPI says 49% to advance, 34% to win it all. Liverpool 2.5:1 payoff, 51% to advance, 37% to win. Ajax 4.5:1 payoff, 51% to advance, 15% to win Spurs 4.5:1 payoff, 49% to advance, 14% to win No good bets if you relied on the computer to find one, that is the payoff multiplied by the odds of winning is always off, Liverpool comes closest to being a fair bet. But at a 2.5:1 payoff you'd like their odds to be 40% or better to win, 37% does not qualify. Other odds are worse.
As with the CL version, the old Europa post was getting really long so here's the quick update before semifinals kick off: Both EPL squads are bookie darlings, but Valencia is a slight favorite of the SPI computer model on 538 (links to both in post I'm quoting) to beat Arsenal at least, Chelsea is top pick of computer and bookies. Chelsea 1.5:1 payoff to win; SPI says 67% to advance, 39% to win it all. Arsenal 2.5:1 payoff, 47% to advance, 21% to win. Valencia 4:1 payoff, 53% to advance, 25% to win (the only OK bet to win based on % by SPI) Spurs 6.5:1 payoff, 33% to advance, 15% to win
Well there's alot of football left to be played but the computer and the bookies agree that it looks an awful like the CL final will be played by two teams which are playing for a treble, don't think that's ever happened but I'll let someone else verify or deny that claim. That is Ajax and Barca are clear favorites now to meet in the final, both are also in their domestic cup final, Barca have won their league, and Ajax are in a dogfight with PSV to win their league but despite being level on points they hold the tiebreak and the SPI computer gives them an 85% shot at winning the Eredivisie. Just one leg played, here's the BEFORE: Barca 1.625:1 payoff to win; SPI says 49% to advance, 34% to win it all. Liverpool 2.5:1 payoff, 51% to advance, 37% to win. Ajax 4.5:1 payoff, 51% to advance, 15% to win Spurs 4.5:1 payoff, 49% to advance, 14% to win And now: Barca 0.48:1 (risk 1 for a payoff of .48, you keep your 1 too of course), 94% to advance, 64% win. Liverpool 25:1; 6% to make final, 4% to win. Ajax 3.5:1, 74% to make final, 24% to win Spurs 10:1, 26% to make final, 8% to win. Crazy how much 1 away goal (Ajax), 3 home goals (Barca) and two clean sheets can change odds and predictions with only half the football played.
There have been two instances where both finalists kicked off a Champions League final looking to complete the Treble: 2009-10: Internazionale v Bayern Munich 2014-15: Juventus v FC Barcelona There were quite a few instances where both finalists were on course of completing the Treble but had either yet to cement the league and/or play their domestic cup final before contesting the European Cup/Champions League final. For example, in 1999 Manchester United had already captured the Premier League and FA Cup but while Bayern Munich had already won the Bundesliga they had still to play the DFB-Pokal final (which they lost one week after losing the UCL final to United). I used to have a list of the other 'on course' occasions but I can't find it at the moment.