Hello WoSo Fans! It's just about time to set up the annual NCAA Prediction Contest for women's DI soccer. I would love someone to take it over this year as I happen to be busy at this time. So interested fans, do let me know, and I won't go ahead and set it up tomorrow evening. For those of you who haven't participated, here are the basics. For the last threel years, we had two divisions: (1)The Human Division where about 25 of us WOSO fans entered our best bracket, and (2) the Statistical / Machine Division where we had 6 entries last year. Usually, the very top humans beat everyone (including the computers) but the Machines beat the humans on the average. I got good feedback on the system of scoring for the last four years, so I'll suggest using that system once again. Recall that its major feature was to underweight a little bit the big payoffs for calling the semi final and final games, and emphasize more points in the second and third rounds to reward savvy picks in those "upset rounds" leading up to the elite 8. If you can call the elite 8 you're going to be in high-level company with a great shot at taking the contest. But if you get every other pick wrong except the the eventual finalists then you will end up in the middle of the heap. In other words, if you pick Stanford and Duke to play for the 2017 championship, you might have called the winners, but if you got all of the other picks wrong, other contestants who correctly called most of the 56 games leading to the elite 8 will have a big lead on you even if they miss on the two golden teams. Pending on hearing from a volunteer, I'll communicate again on Wednesday AM with the specific rules. (Same as last year, repeated.) Cheers! Soccerhunter
I'll Start 1st Round Stanford Auburn Arizona FSU PSU WF Rutgers WVU UCF Tenn USF Florida OSU Cal Wisconsin SC Duke OK State Clemson TX USC Baylor ND A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton Arkansas CU UNC 2nd Round Stanford FSU PSU WVU UCF Florida OSU SC Duke Clemson USC A&M UCLA Virginia Arkansas UNC Third Round Stanford PSU UCF SC Duke USC UCLA UNC Quarters Stanford SC Duke UCLA Semis Stanford Duke Champions Stanford
OK....No takers? I'll dive in again, but may be a little slow posting the results. FORMATTING ENTRIES. The example above from Norfolk is the way I want to see the entries. Please do them EXACTLY that way because I then can simply copy the columns into the spread sheet. Simply vertically list your picks for each round. (If I have to hand copy each school name, the the chance for error seriously increases... and it takes me longer...) Your individual entry (one per person) should be posted on this site an hour before the first match is played this Friday (10th). That means 12:00 noon eastern time all entries in please. If you want to enter a bracket based on a computer calculation or even a hand calculated arithmetic ranking system, then please feel free to do so. CP Thomas and Bennett generally are the competition to beat (and CP also supplies a bracket based on the official NCAA ARPI and some other iterations.) As discussed in the first post above, the scoring system will be the same one used for four years now. Identifying the correct winner of a match will be awarded with 1,3,6,8,8,8 points for each of the 6 rounds. (eg total points available for each of the 6 rounds are 32, 48, 48, 32,16, 8. This system typically puts about 1/3 of the field into a position of possibly winning by the end of the third round. (Those who are yet in position to win the contest usually do well in the 2nd and 3rd rounds -- The "Upset" Rounds.) The "elite 8" round (round 4) does some good pruning of contestants down to 3 or 4 possible victors, and the semi finals and championship game separate those remaining viable winning contestants to find the our Champion Pronosticator. So far in the contest, I don't think that we've had a tie in the 7 years I've been participating in (or running) this contest. Our big prize for the winner is the natural opportunity to take a bow and then to explain his or her genius behind the winning picks, and then after a pause explaining what the difference was from the previous year when that same genius failed. (We've never had a repeat winer...) So sit down and fill in your brackets and send in your entry. Let the fun begin!
OK... Ive spent several days on this....not Glove Stinks Rnd 1 Stanford Hofstra Arizona FSU Penn st Georgetown Rutgers West Virginia WASH St Tenn FGCU Florida OSU Cal Wisc South Carolina Duke OSU Clemson Texas USC Baylor Notre Dame A&M UCLA Butler Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd rnd Stanford AZ Penn St WVU Wazoo Florida Cal South Carolina Duke USC Clemson A&M UCLA Virginia Princeton UNC Rnd 3 Stanford Flordia West Virginia Cal Duke USC UCLA UNC 4Th rnd Stanford Florida USC UNC 5th rnd Stanford USC Final USC
ill give my shot 1st Round Stanford Hofstra Arizona Mississippi Penn St Wake Forest Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee South Florida Florida Vanderbilt California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma St Alabama North Texas USC Rice Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Butler Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd Round Stanford Mississippi Penn St Rutgers Tennessee Florida Vanderbilt South Carolina Duke North Texas USC Notre Dame UCLA Pepperdine Princeton North Carolina 3rd Round Stanford Rutgers Tennessee Vanderbilt Duke USC UCLA North Carolina 4th Round Rutgers Tennessee Duke UCLA 5th Round Rutgers Duke Champion Duke
1st Rd. Stanford Auburn Arizona FSU Penn St Wake Forest Rutgers West Virginia Wazzu Tenn. S. Florida Florida Ohio St Cal Wisconsin S. Carolina Duke Missouri St Clemson Texas USC Rice Notre Dame Tex. AM UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine UVA Princeton NCSU Colorado UNC 2nd Rd. Stanford Arizona PSU Rutgers Tenn. Florida Cal Wisconsin Duke Texas USC Notre Dame UCLA UVA NCSU UNC 3rd Rd. Stanford PSU Florida Cal Duke Notre Dame UCLA UNC 4th Rd. PSU Florida Duke UCLA 5th Rd PSU Duke Final Duke
1st Round Stanford Hofstra Arizona Florida St Penn St G'town Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee FGCU Florida OSU Cal Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma St Clemson Texas USC Rice Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd Round Stanford Florida State Penn State WVU UCF Florida OSU South Carolina Duke Clemson USC Notre Dame UCLA Virginia NC State North Carolina 3rd Round Stanford Penn State Florida South Carolina Duke USC UCLA North Carolina 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke UCLA 5th Round Stanford Duke Champion Duke
Machine Division: Adjusted RPI 1st Round Stanford Auburn Arizona Florida St. Penn St. Georgetown Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee South Fla. Florida Ohio St. California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma St. Alabama Texas Southern California Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd Round Stanford Florida St. Penn St. West Virginia UCF South Fla. Ohio St. South Carolina Duke Texas Southern California Texas A&M UCLA Pepperdine Princeton North Carolina 3rd Round Stanford West Virginia UCF South Carolina Duke Texas A&M UCLA North Carolina 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke North Carolina 5th Round Stanford North Carolina Champion Stanford
1st Round Stanford Hofstra TCU FSU Penn State Georgetown Rutgers WVU UCF Tenn South Florida Florida Vanderbilt Cal Wisc South Carolina Duke OSU Clemson Texas USC Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine UVa Princeton NC State Colorado UNC 2nd Round Stanford FSU Penn State Rutgers Tenn Florida Cal South Carolina Duke Clemson USC Notre Dame UCLA UVa Princeton UNC 3rd Round Stanford Penn State Florida South Carolina Duke Notre Dame UVa UNC 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke UNC 5th Round Stanford Duke Champions Stanford
Machine Division: Adjusted Non-Conference RPI 1st Round Stanford Auburn Arizona Florida St. Penn St. Wake Forest Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee South Fla. Florida Ohio St. California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma St. Alabama Texas Southern California Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Butler Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd Round Stanford Florida St. Penn St. West Virginia UCF South Fla. California South Carolina Duke Texas Southern California Texas A&M UCLA Pepperdine Princeton North Carolina 3rd Round Stanford West Virginia UCF South Carolina Duke Texas A&M UCLA Princeton 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke UCLA 5th Round Stanford Duke Champion Stanford
Machine Division: 5 Iteration Adjusted RPI 1st Round Stanford Auburn Arizona Florida St. Penn St. Wake Forest Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee South Fla. Florida Ohio St. California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma St. Clemson Texas Southern California Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd Round Stanford Florida St. Penn St. West Virginia UCF Florida Ohio St. South Carolina Duke Texas Southern California Texas A&M UCLA Pepperdine NC State North Carolina 3rd Round Stanford West Virginia UCF South Carolina Duke Texas A&M UCLA North Carolina 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke North Carolina 5th Round Stanford North Carolina Champion North Carolina
Machine Division: Massey 1st Round Stanford Auburn Arizona Florida St. Penn St. Wake Forest Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee South Fla. Florida Ohio St. California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma St. Clemson Texas Southern California Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd Round Stanford Florida St. Penn St. West Virginia UCF Florida Ohio St. South Carolina Duke Clemson Southern California Texas A&M UCLA Pepperdine Princeton North Carolina 3rd Round Stanford West Virginia UCF South Carolina Duke Texas A&M UCLA North Carolina 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke North Carolina 5th Round Stanford Duke Champion Stanford
FIRST ROUND Stanford Hofstra Arizona FSU Penn St Wake Forest Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee South Florida Florida Ohio State California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma State Clemson Texas USC Rice Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado UNC SECOND ROUND Stanford Florida State Penn State West Virginia UCF Florida California South Carolina Duke Clemson USC Texas A&M UCLA Virginia NC State UNC THIRD ROUND Stanford West Virginia UCF South Carolina Duke USC UCLA UNC QUARTER FINALS Stanford South Carolina Duke UCLA SEMI FINALS Stanford Duke CHAMPION Duke
1st Round Stanford Hofstra Arizona Florida St. Penn St. Wake Forest Rutgers West Virginia UCF Tennessee South Fla. Florida Ohio St. California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke Oklahoma St. Clemson Texas Southern California Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado North Carolina 2nd Round Stanford Florida St. Penn St. Rutgers UCF South Florida Ohio St. South Carolina Duke Texas Southern California Texas A&M UCLA Pepperdine NC State North Carolina 3rd Round Stanford Penn State UCF South Carolina Duke Southern California UCLA North Carolina 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke North Carolina 5th Round Stanford North Carolina Champion Stanford
I’m surprised nobody has picked Santa Clara!! (Yes I know, neither did I....but I labored over that pick)....I think they are a really solid team with two stud freshmen strikers
Well, here goes nothin.... How about the first to predict Stanford will not make the final 4. That Rutgers will focus on defense and sneak through by 1-0 scores or shoot-outs. That Ohio State will beat both Cal and South Carolina. And that UNC will beat a very strong Virginia team again this season and beat Duke in another equally fought nail biter for the third time this season. ......ALL of which are terrible probabilities. Hey, this year it's about risk taking! (and I'll likely end up near the bottom of all of my betters....) 1st Round Stanford Auburn Arizona FSU WFU Rutgers WVA UCF TN S Fla Florida Ohio St Cal Wisc South Carolina Duke Ok St. Clemson TX USC Baylor Notre Dame TAMU UCLA Butler Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NCSU Colorado UNC 2nd Round Stanford FSU PSU Rutgers UCF Florida Ohio State South Carolina Duke Clemson USC Notre Dame UCLA Virginia NCSU UNC 3rd Round Stanford Rutgers Florida Ohio State Duke USC Virginia UNC 4th Round Rutgers Florida Duke UNC Semi Finals Rutgers UNC Champion UNC
Hey, Soccerhunter, thanks for doing this. Last year, I actually programmed a workbook to make my entries easier, I improved the programming a little this year, and when the season's over I think I can make it even easier for next year. I'm curious to see if history holds and the machines do better than most but not as well as the best.
So I am the first to make a clerical entry! (Left out Penn State below FSU in the first round.) Pasting it into the spreadsheet made it obvious!
Me too. It's certainly a pattern since we got the machine division going. As far as I understand probability (which is a very primitive understanding) it makes sense and is what supports the gambling industry. In other words, the odds favor the house so with enough iterations every patron will sooner or later lose (eg his or her winning average will be lower than the house.) But the random nature of risk taking also means that on any given night or even for some "hot" streaks an individual can beat the odds and take home winnings. Only by number counting (considered cheating by the gaming industry) and rationally calculating odds can an individual win in some card games where the house is only one player and other humans are the others. (In pure chance games, like roulette, or the one arm bandits, there is noting the patron can possibly do to win long term.) At least that is my understanding!?!
Machine / Poll Division. United Soccer Coaches Poll 11/5/17 (40 teams with votes.) With only two exceptions all winners could be determined by a higher poll ranking. The two exceptions are in the first round only and are Colorado vs Denver as they were the only pair who did not appear on the poll (resolved for Colorado via NCAA RPI) and Clemson vs Alabama who each garnered 1 vote in the poll (resolved for Alabama with the higher NCAA RPI.) 1st Round Stanford Hofstra Arizona Florida State Penn State Georgetown Rutgers WVA UCF Tenn South Florida Florida Ohio State California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke OK St. Alabama Texas USC Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Butler Pepperdine Virginia Princeton NC State Colorado UNC 2nd Round Stanford Florida State Penn State WVA UCF Florida Ohio State South Carolina Duke Texas USC Texas A&M UCLA Pepperdine Princeton UNC 3rd Round Stanford WVA UCF South Carolina Duke Texas A&M UCLA UNC 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke UNC Semi Finals Stanford UNC Champion Stanford
1st Round Stanford Auburn Arizona Florida State Penn State Wake Forest Rutgers WVU UCF Tenn South Florida Florida Ohio State California Wisconsin South Carolina Duke OK State Clemson Texas USC Baylor Notre Dame Texas A&M UCLA Northwestern Pepperdine Virginia Princeton Arkansas Colorado UNC 2nd Round Stanford Florida State Penn State WVU UCF Florida Ohio State South Carolina Duke Clemson USC Texas A&M UCLA Virginia Arkansas UNC 3rd Round Stanford Penn State UCF South Carolina Duke USC UCLA UNC 4th Round Stanford South Carolina Duke UCLA Semi Finals Stanford Duke Champion Stanford