2017 Hot Seat

You make a good point. New coach so probably not on the hot seat.

Illinois state did have a good year last season and still seem competent. Oakland won 9 games last year so based on current form what is happening is pretty bad. The coach inherited a solid team and is clearly not doing a good job with it. But I agree with your point first year head coach won't be hot. We will probably be revisiting this position in a couple of years.

 

I think Akron must be on the hot seat if they don't improve. 1 win so far this year. The previous coach was let go due to lack of success and the current coach has arguably done worse.

 

Not defending Akron, but she has been there three years, including this year. She is starting anywhere from 6-8 freshmen. Based on the recruiting cycle and timeline of D1, she is just now getting her players in and they are the freshmen class. They have lost the last 4 games by 1 goal. I think the true test will be year 4 and 5. And they won't do much better, if any, in the MAC based on their youth. She should have at least 1 more year before it's hot.

 

Here's one way (of many) to look at it:

Based on Akron's trend (straight line) over the last 10 years, they've been on a downward trend and, if the trend were to continue, would be expected to have an ARPI at the end of this season of 0.4357. Using only the last three years for setting the trend, which is a better measure of what's "normal" for a coach who is in her third year, one would expect 0.4384. For practical purposes, those two numbers are about the same.

Akron's current ARPI is 0.4219. My simulation projects an end-of-season ARPI of 0.4263.

There's an 18 ranking position difference between the simulation ARPI and the 3-year trend. So far as rating accuracy is concerned, in this area of the rankings an 18-position difference is not very significant.

In other words, in real statistical terms, if Akron's final rating is in the area towards which it was trending going into this year -- with most of the trend inherited by the current coach -- Akron would be right about where one would expect.

If the athletics administration was expecting a fast turn around, it looks like they aren't going to get it. But something to bear in mind is that past deficiencies in a program, especially long term ones, can carry over after a new coach arrives. In particular a program can get a reputation that makes recruiting difficult. Thus even waiting until a coach has four years of her own recruits may not be enough time to say how the team does is all on her. One of the great unknowns I'm interested in is how long are the shadows that good and poor coaches cast.

 

I agree with both of you that they are just starting to get their own players in. The previous coach didn't get too long of a timeline to change things so you have to wonder if the admin will be the same with the current coach. Still one win so far is fairly poor.

 

Akron also has some of the finest facilities in the country. The women's program benefits from the men's program which is perennially one of the best programs in the country (though this year it isn't the typical Akron men's team and they seem to be having some difficulties with the meat grinder of a schedule that they have. It is still one of the top men's programs, though). The match field is one of the best anywhere despite being in a northern setting. The school has nice indoor facilities/field, weight room, dorms for athletes, other recreational facilities, and an improved campus from a few years back. The women's program does not want for anything from a facilities standpoint.

The school, academically, is known for being strong in the sciences and having great programs in engineering . It also has a good business school. That being said, not many D1 soccer players are studying the hard sciences.

With all that, it would seem that they should be able to attract some pretty decent players. Personally I am not sure of the current quality of players that are there, aside from them being young, so I do not know if that is the issue. I do know that several players that would have been able to play this season, that got decent time last season, are no longer playing. That, though, could be due to the normal rate of high attrition that is seen in women's collegiate soccer.

 

Akron's trusty AC from the Rock bailed after the first Zip season to go club in TN and is now new assistant to the assistant at D3 (probably dualing the jobs). I thought that was a hasty departure (along with the alleged roster turnover). I am leery of the division jumper HC hires, especially long-time lower D baby-sitters. You don't know how they;re going to react once the restrictor plates on training and recruiting are removed. The pressure and/or free'er hand could reveal hidden tyrannical anxiety.

Good coat tail season, down slide since...bad tidings. As far as Akron being the "finest facilities in the country", good for non-P5 rust belt, I suppose, but, easy. Concrete block locker shed/building thingie, many have that. Maybe Akron wants to be Gordon Gekko, but it's still Akron. Some of the ACC schools were/are shabby in comparison to P5, never holds them back. Some are/were dressing in trailers. For parents, it's P5(?), name, location, in order. The rest, it's all about who shows the most luv to the leftover.

 

If you're going to quote me, quote me correctly:

I didn't say that they had the finest facilities. I said that the facilities were some of the finest. I stand by that statement. That is what the women's team gets by picky-backing on to the facilities built for the men's team - one of the best men's programs around. Additionally, there are only a handful of match fields in the country on par with Akron's.

 

The field is unreal and in a competitive but not amazing MAC you would think they can strong some results together. Still results this year suggest progress may not have been made, but plenty of time left to turn it around. Looking at the bio of the head coach she did have success prior to Akron, but with the different level, different recruiting landscape, and a different environment at the Division I level it can be harder to be successful when you don't have better resources than everyone else. Maybe at her previous level the school had a great campus, academics, and athletics opportunities which gave them a leg up. Just a guess though.

 

Anybody notice the absolute sell job Kentucky's post-game recaps are?

I find it a little hard to label it as a foundation phase or rebuilding phase like he does in every release when he was connected with the program before and he was the one who recruited the players you have now.

Wonder if they went back, would the kids be excited about 5am workouts everyday in the spring that translated into marquee wins over EKU, Wyoming, Western Illinois and Lipscomb?

 

Shots were 15-1, I don't think that foundation will hold. Also, since when do schools announce players injuries? I've noticed they aren't shy about doing this. Does he think he is convincing the only person (Kentucky AD) who ever thought he was capable of coaching at this level that injuries are the reason they aren't winning?

 

What emoji would go best with a nice slice of humble pie?

 

Texas are on a roll right now. Could this be a breakout year where they finally show they can make a deep NCAA run?

Kentucky guy will probably be gone after his contract is done in two years. I totally agree he shouldn't be able to use the development excuse when he recruited these kids.

Touching back on conversations from this week Akron lost again. Won't be long until they start trending downwards.

Pitt also picked up a respectable tie against VA Tech.

 

Michigan State just lost 7-1 in a conference game and is now 0-4 in conference play. Haven't been to the tourney in 8 years. Time for Saxton to go. That program is capable of so much more.

Seton Hall still winless. Should be hot.

Bottom of the Atlantic 10 played yesterday, St. Bonaventure and Richmond and both were winless. They tied each other so looks like both could be winless into October. Warm for both.

 

With vast majority in-state (sorta unusual for P5, look at UM), no Ontarians given their proximity, rust-belt/Detroit economics could be quietly roosting on the MSU budget. DiNardo tanked literally overnight. Likely all signed confidentiality agreements. In crunch time, which brand crunched first, Wolverines or spartans? (rhetorically)

 

I meant Dantonio (football HC) who's team suddenly stinx, not "DiNardo" (the B10 network analyst). I'm sure MSU coaches are contractually bound not to disclose budget/scholarship cuts.

 

Agreed Michigan state and seton hall are hot. Both will probably be open at the end of the year.

 

Any new schools? What about NM State weren't there some concerns there? Thoughts on these programs:
Richmond- Time for a change
St. Bonaventure- why isn't he getting it done
American-
Campbell-
Tulsa-
Akron-
Vermont-
UT Martin-
Marshall-
UTSA-
IPFW-
Incarnate Word-
Michigan State-
UGA-
VCU- got to Do well in A-10.

 

i don't think VCU is on the list, in my opinion. As a southerly public in that conference, they'll default to top end of the standings.

 

They should just Sack him at the end of the season. An assistant who would get the HC fired is the lowest kind of scum.

 

See......Campbell!!

 

It IS a contract year for NM State, but I think they are safe on the merit of their UTEP and especially UNM wins alone. They are .500 and have an easy conference in which they'll pick up a few wins. Several winnable matches left, and they're better than they've been, so I believe they'll be extended.

UIW are poor in an area where they should thrive. It's not the easiest school to win at but they should be better. Someone I know close to the situation says they have at least a year left, but who knows. They'll probably pick up at least another win or two in the Southland, but if they can't I could see them being in trouble. No excuse to not be better in that conference and in San Antonio.