Well, yes I can. That's what this forum is for. Just like you have no problem doing the same, such as predicting Juve will get 15 points in Barca's group back in August. We have more information to judge Roma and Man Utd than just these 6 group stage games. (Roma wasn't that impressive either except against Chelsea)
Road to Lyon post draw update, changes not so big as in CL, but Napoli and Leipzig took a hit for drawing each other: 1-Atletico 5:1 now 5.5 2-Arsenal 7.5 now 6 3-Napoli 10 now 12 --Dortmund now 11 and alone in 3rd 5-Milan 14 same 6-Leipzig 16 now 25 7-Lazio 17 now 16 8-Lyon 25 now 28 --Villarreal now 35 (Lyon and Villarreal were each 25:1, drew each other but Villarreal took a bigger hit for it). 10-Real Soc 30 same 11-Atalanta 33 now 50 --Sporting same at 33 still 13-Zenit 40 now 35 --Bilbao now 35 --Marseille now 50 16-CSKA 50 now 60 --Dynamo Kiev now 100 --Spartak Mos now 66 19-Nice 60 now 50 --Salzburg now 100 21-Braga 80 now 150 --Celtic now 100 23-Steaua 100 now 200
I think Lyon were playing like one of the 10th-20th best teams in the world a couple weeks ago and of course they host the championship game, so I'd say a slight favorite (but also more pressure on them perhaps), but if the 25:1 was accurate you'd think both would fall kind of equally to say 30:1 or 28:1. Either way should be a great two legs, not sure which other ones I care about, beyond the high profile Napoli-Leipzig one. Will follow the other 3 Spanish teams and take notice if any favorites need a good result in 2nd leg. Otherwise, too early with 32 teams left. I do like that the winner makes CL now, that's a big reward. But for now it is 5 rounds and 9 games away so too early.
CHELSEA ...................................... FEBRUARY .............................. FC BARCELONA FAC-5R ...................................... weekend 17-18 ................................ J24 (A) Eibar ................................... Tue 20: UCL-2R1 Chelsea v Barcelona .................................. R28 (A) Man Utd ....................... weekend 24-25 .............................. J25 (H) Girona open ............................................ midweek 27-1 ....................... J26 (A) Las Palmas .......................................................... MARCH ............................................................. R29 (A) Man City ...................... weekend 3-4 ................... J27 (H) Atlético Madrid open ........................................... midweek 6-8 .................................................. open R30 (H) Crystal Palace ........... weekend 10-11 ............................... J28 (A) Málaga ................................... Wed 14: UCL-2R2 Barcelona v Chelsea .................................. PL31 (A) Burnley ..................... weekend 17-18 ................... J29 (H) Athletic Bilbao
Damn ... you hate Neymar so much you rather see RM win ? I guess it's better for RM to advance so that they don't just focus on La Liga in case that gets close.
At the moment I honestly don't know who to root for. (LPB-PSG) The only time I somewhat wanted LPB to win was the '98 UCL final and that was only because they had former Cologne legend Bodo Illgner in goal.
If this was the CL final, or even a semifinal it would be a tougher call. Also if Neymar bitches out and doesn’t play because of some injury, it will be a tougher call.
Yeah, if they could both lose that'd be great, but knowing only one makes the final 8 is still great. I'd prefer to see Real Madrid lose as they are more of our direct rival and all full of themselves after completing the back to back CL wins (which was a great accomplishment, even if I loathe that team). PSG will fall to someone else, they are not our rivals, just a rich club which spends money with seemingly no regard for FFP. There are lots of clubs like that, new money PSG, ManC, Chelsea; but also old money / giant TV money which includes us, Real, Bayern, and most of the EPL.
I generally tend to support La Liga teams unless they are playing vs a Serie A team. It is just because La Liga teams have been dominant in the past years, and I want Serie A teams to only be the ones to stop them. Since 2013-14 season, Juventus have proven to be the only Non-La Liga team to be able to knock out one of Real, Barca, or Atletico. Since 2013-14 Bayern has not been able to knock out any of those teams and neither has PSG, Man City, or any others.
For me there's a difference between a club getting obscene amounts of money through TV, sponsorships, membership fees/ ticket revenue, etc. (e.g. Barca, Madrid, Man Utd) versus getting money through a sugar-Daddy owner (Man C, Chelsea, PSG). I also question whether PSG is only rich through their owner or are they also getting money from a State (i.e. Qatar), which would break new ground in the futbol world (although I guess its quite common in the U.S.).
I make that distinction too, and FFP tries to make it harder to simply buy ones way to the top behind a rich (or state-sponsored) owner. And I prefer teams that built their success and fan / financial support over decades. But it is worth acknowledging that Barca too (like few other teams, whether old money or new money) is operating on an entirely different financial plane than most football clubs in the world.
Cool statistical analysis, some of it rings true with the odds I typically focus on: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-three-epic-early-champions-league-showdowns/
I hope PSG knocks Real out of UCL. I don’t want Zidane sacked though lmao. He has destroyed the squad Mourinho and Rafa built. Zidane’s affair with Benzema is absolutely hilarious I hope they both never leave. Barcelona look to be the favourites in UCL this season objectively speaking. Valverde is absolutely ruthless, the defence looks so much better from Enrique. even if the football isn’t as flashy.
I think the favorites are Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern, and Real Madrid like always. Barcelona probably looks like the best team now, since the defense has improved. Valverde did do a good job with that. I see more urgency in the defense now. Man City and PSG are outsiders but I do not think they are good enough. Man City especially looks very vulnerable in defense, when they play real teams.
City & PSG would piss all over Bayern and Juve atm. In fact, PSG already did in the one meaningful encounter they just had. Seriously, i know you’re Juve but the blind bias gets tired fast.
PSG did but that was against Ancelotti's Bayern. Bayern Munich have been a different team since Jump Heynckes took over. By the way I doubt Guardiola would be able to out-coach Heynckes with the teams they are both under. Heynckes is the better manager, and Bayern is even superior on paper. Same with Allegri and Juventus. If you remember 2015-16, Juventus vs Bayern. Yes Guardiola's Bayern beat us but it was an awful mistake by Evra that led that to happen, and yet Juventus were playing without Chiellini, Marchisio, and Dybala in the second leg. Max completely out-coached Pep for most of the game. Also let me tell you Pep's Bayern had a better team on paper then Pep's City does at the moment. Also Juventus is better now than they were in 2015-16 season. PSG is hard to tell at the moment, but from what I see they are another of those teams that will look great against inferior teams but get out-coached against teams managed well around the same level. PSG is a frightening attack, but their defense and midfield are nothing to write home about. Bayern and Juve have more of a complete team. Keep in mind that in this generation, Heynckes and Allegri are arguably the two best managers in the world. Zidane is also up there or at least he was in the past.
It could be argued that Juventus-Tottenham is the tie of the round if only because of LPB's form this season. Could change in six weeks time but right now I'd lay money on PSG to advance. Not sure who I'd bet on in the Juve-Spurs encounters.
To simply exclude City and PSG from the list of top contenders, while including Juve - who have done nothing much since beating Barca last April - is a bit biased.
Its funny you say this, because I am seriously backing Real Madrid to advance. I believe we will go through as well, but Spurs is not a team to be underestimated. From what I have seen, I think Spurs win over Real was really a fluke and Real just playing to advance and not to win the group. Other than that Spurs really has not convinced me, and in fact they have been beaten by teams in the EPL in situations where they have drew or won in the past seasons those same fixtures. Spurs 1-2 Chelsea Man Utd 1-0 Spurs Man City 4-1 Spurs I mean Spurs is not to be underestimated but if you want my honest opinion, I don't really think they have improved this season. I think they might have even downgraded a bit especially in defense. Reminds me just like last season where many people were backing Arsenal to finally advance against Bayern and say Arsenal was better and Bayern not as good. Yet the complete opposite happened. Bayern ended up smashing them with the biggest aggregate score they have ever beaten them in a knockout round. Now I do not see Juventus smashing Spurs because Juventus do not smash teams, but I do see Juventus going through more comfortable than predicted although it will be close.
What have City and PSG done? Juve beat Barca last April, but what big team did City or PSG knock out in the knockout rounds? Yes PSG beat Bayern but that was a group stage game. Man City couldn't even beat Monaco, and PSG threw away a 4-0 lead against Barca last season. What have Man City and PSG done better than Juventus besides just finish with quite a bit more points in their respective UCL groups that were arguably easier? Man City did not have a really tough group. PSG had Bayern but Barca is arguably a tougher team, and Sporting/Olympiacos is arguably tougher than Celtic/Anderlecht.