News: 2017-18 UEFA Champions League draw: The Road to Kiev [R]

Juventus
Barcelona
Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon

 

Oh dear SPORTING, Juve,

Europa Leauge next for Barca!!

 

United get by far the easiest group!

 

What the ....

 

ah come one, they can do this!
at least they don't have to travel far
should be Juve and Barca

 

Im just being silly guys!! haha

 

Barca will be first in the group

They need to win one game vs Juve. Juve won't win the rest of the games

 

👏 @liekemartens1, chosen as Best Player of the Year by UEFA! Congratulations! 🔴🔵#ForçaBarça pic.twitter.com/9CCwk3NRJv

— FC Barcelona (@FCBarcelona) August 24, 2017

 

Oh right. Was thinking Leipzig was Austrian.

 

Time to see if the group selection did anything to materially damage (or assist) any of the top 16-19 team's odds of winning it all. Above I posted the odds of all 19 teams which were 200:1 or better (shorter odds), albeit before a few of those teams had full cemented their place into the group stage.

Now 4:1 1-Real Madrid 4.5 (best paying odds are 9/2 or 4.5:1)
Now 7 2-Barca 6 (still 2nd but now tied for 2nd with 2 other teams)
Now 7 3-Bayern 6.5
Now 7 4-PSG 8
Still 12 5-Man City 12
Now 11 6-Man U 14 (so now leapfrogged neighbor to 5th most favored)
Now 16 7-Juventus 14
Now 18 8-Chelsea 16
Now 20 9-Atletico 16
Now 22 10-Liverpool 30
Now 50 11-Dortmund 33
Now 40 12-Tottenham 35
Now 40 13-Napoli 66
Still 80 14-Monaco -80
Still 80 15-RB Leipzeig 80
Now 150 16-Roma 100
Now 150 17-Sevilla 125
Still 150 18-Porto 150
Now 150 19-Benfica 200

Rest of Barca's group: Sporting Lisbon 500:1, Olympiakos 1,000:1

So not a huge amount of movement based on draw. Both Tottenham and Dortmund took a hit as only 1 will advance with Real Madrid, but Real took no hit at all as neither is considered a huge challenge. In the other "group of death" all 3 teams took a hit: Chelsea, Atletico, and Roma each saw their odds grow longer. Barca and Juventus both saw their odds get slightly longer, but not by much as Sporting and Olympiakos are not considered strong enough to push either into 3rd place and Europa League.

ManU was rewarded with shorter odds after getting the most cupcake draw (Benfica in pot 1). Same applied to Sevilla and Liverpool (Spartak in pot 1), and Man City and Napoli (Shaktar in pot 1).

Monaco, Porto, and Leipzeig is another tough group, none are real favorites to win it all but all are very similarly placed (joint 14th favorites, and 18th most favored), in that case the odds stayed EXACTLY the same for all 3.

 

Europa League Final - Road to Lyon special report. Draw tomorrow. A few big teams did not even make it through the playoffs - Bordeaux, PSV, Ajax, Freiburg, Galatasaray, Fenerbahce, Brugge, etc.:

POT 1:
Arsenal
Zenit St Petersburg
Lyon
Dynamo Kiev
Villarreal
Athletic Bilbao
Lazio
AC Milan
Viktoria Plzen
FC Salzburg
Copenhagen
Braga

POT 2:
Steaua Bucharest
Ludogorets
BATE Borisov
Everton
Young Boys
Marseille
Real Sociedad
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Lokomotiv Moscow
Austria Wien
Hertha Berlin
Nice

POT 3:
Astana
Partizan Belgrade
Hoffenheim
FC Koln
NK Rijeka
Vitoria Guimaraes
Atalanta
Zulte Waregem
Zorya Luhansk
Rosenborg
Sheriff Tiraspol
Hapoel Beer-Sheva

POT 4:
Apollon
Istanbul Basaksehir
Konyaspor
Vitesse
Slavia Prague
Red Star Belgrade
Skenderbeu
FC Zlin
AEK Athens
FC Lugano
Vardar Skopje
Ostersunds

Favorites pre-draw:
1-Arsenal 8 (bet a $1, to win $8)
1-Milan 8
3-Everton 20
4-Bilbao 25
4-Lyon 25
6-Lazio 33
6-Marseille 33
8-Villarreal 40
8-Real Sociedad 40
10-Zenit 50
10-Hertha Berlin 50
10-Hoffenheim 50
13-KOLN 66
13-Atalanta 66
13-Basaksehir 66
13-Nice 66
17-Braga 100
17-Vitoria Guimaraes 100

All others more than 100:1, Vitesse considered team to avoid in Pot 4 (200:1). Odds from here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner

 

Atalanta seriously? Over Dynamo Kyiv, Astana, BATE, Copenhagen, and Ludogorets? This is just a joke. Dynamo Kyiv should be like right after Everton. Zenit as well should be a lot higher.

 

POST DRAW UPDATE:
Favorites pre-draw:
1-Arsenal 8 (bet a $1, to win $8) - NOW 2ND FAVORITE, STILL 8-1
1-Milan 8 - NOW ALONE AS MOST FAVORED AT 7-1
3-Everton 20 - STILL THIRD BUT NOW TIED AND WITH LONGER ODDS 25-1
4-Bilbao 25 - STILL 25-1, NOW JOINT 3RD
4-Lyon 25 - NOW 6TH AND 28-1
6-Lazio 33 - NOW 40-1, AND JOINT 8TH
6-Marseille 33 - STILL 33-1, NOW 7TH
8-Villarreal 40 - BIG MOVE UP TO JOINT 3RD AND ONLY 25-1
8-Real Sociedad 40 - NOW JOINT 11TH AND 50-1
10-Zenit 50 - NOW JOINT 8TH AND 40-1
10-Hertha Berlin 50 - NOW JOINT 11TH AND 50-1
10-Hoffenheim 50 - NOW JOINT 8TH AND 40-1
13-KOLN 66 - STILL JOINT 13TH BUT NOW 80-1
13-Atalanta 66 - STILL JOINT 13TH BUT NOW 80-1
13-Basaksehir 66 - NOW 125-1, 18TH
13-Nice 66 - STILL JOINT 13TH BUT NOW 80-1
17-Braga 100 - STILL 100-1, GOOD FOR 16TH
DYNAMO KIEV NOW ALSO 100-1 FOR JOINT 16TH
17-Vitoria Guimaraes 100 - NOW 150-1, JOINT 20TH

e, h, i, k & l all seem to have a 3rd team who could pull an upset

 

My Gosh, how on earth is Bilbao, Lazio, Marseille, Real Sociedad, and even Everton and Villarreal above Zenit?

Zenit should really be just below Arsenal and Milan. Dynamo Kyiv should be there too.

Literally the rank should be more like this:

1. AC Milan
2. Arsenal
3. Zenit
4. Dynamo Kyiv
5. Lyon
6. Everton
7. Lazio
8. Villarreal
9. Hoffenheim
10. Hertha Berlin
11. Athletic Bilbao
12. Real Sociedad

 

what's so special about Zenit?

 

What are the odds for Feyenoord? Think we're going to pull off a Leicester City