News: 2017-18 UEFA Champions League draw: The Road to Kiev [R]

OK, before the pots are even finished, and also before the group draw, here are the top 16 favorites to WIN the whole thing, which coincides with all teams at 100:1 (Roma) or shorter odds:
1-Real Madrid 4.5 (best paying odds are 9/2 or 4.5:1)
2-Barca 6 (did not think we'd be so high after Copa shellacking)
3-Bayern 6.5
4-PSG 8
5-Man City 12
6-Man U 14
7-Juventus 14
8-Chelsea 16
9-Atletico 16
10-Liverpool 30
11-Dortmund 33
12-Tottenham 35
13-Napoli 66
14-Monaco -80
15-RB Leipzeig 80
16-Roma 100

Sevilla (125), Porto (150), and Benfica (200) are the next 3 and only ones better than 200:1

Comparing that really quickly to the pots listed above the "group of death" recipe would be to add a pot 4 team like Leipzeig and/or a Pot 3 team like Liverpool or Roma (or Napoli or Tottenham if they wound up in Pot 3 and not Pot 2), together with solid Pot 1 and 2 teams.

Also worth noting that more of the top 10 favorties to win it all reside in Pot 2 than in Pot 1. Pot 1 has 1st favorite, 3rd, 7th, and 8th; whereas Pot 2 has 2nd favorite, 4th, 5th, 6th, 9th, plus the 11th.

 

No-way Barca should have lower odds than Bayern! People are totally overrating Barca again.

After that though I can see Barca being better than the rest. Juve got weaker over the summer, as did Monaco and Chelsea. So Barca not alone.
The rest of the EPL teams were so far off the pace last season that even a moderate improvement doesn't make them top contenders IMO (although they could be dangerous of course)

 

It's only high because of rumors of Coutinho, Dembele and so on. When the market closes and Barca only have signed Paulinho, the odds will be higher. I think Barca is 8-9th favorite to win. No way Messi only can penetrate a parked Buss, which we definitely will see. God have mercy. Even feel Europa League is closer than knockout stages. [emoji22]

 

Barca are only 2nd based on who they might sign. Otherwise the team is pretty average outside of Messi, Suarez, Busquets, and Pique. Iniesta is world class but doesn't look like he has enough to lift Barca in big matches.

PSG improved in attack obviously and at RB, but lost depth in midfield. They should clearly be better overall at Barca's expense.

Bayern lost two world class players in Alonso and Lamn. They added quality young talent to compensate. Overall their quality is about the same.

Juve's attack, midfield, and depth are definitely stronger. Juve's defense is weaker. Overall their quality is about the same but more oriented toward offense.

Real are improving internally and have great young players to supplement their starting eleven.

The EPL sides are a question mark. It's hard to tell what they will bring to the table. You have to think that one of the five will break through to at least the quarter if not semis.

 

As far as I know Feyenoord is a POT 4 team. Dunno how we can get into POT 3!

 

Could put this in OTT but seems pretty on point here too, and not far off from the Oddschecker CL odds I posted either, though this correctly puts Barca behind Bayern: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...laxy-boca-juniors-in-one-giant-power-ranking/

 

Holy crap, looks like Azerbaijan will have a team, FK Qarabag in the CL, as they just equalized in Copenhagen, now lead 2-1 on aggregate but have the vital away goal, so Copenhagen needs 2 goals in 23 minutes.

EDIT - and just like that Copenhagen gets 1 back, now 2-2 on aggregate, but Copenhagen needs 1 more due to away goal rule. 20 minutes.

 

Good! Hope they'll end up in Barca group so Barca has a chance to advance.

 

Madrid, Porto, Anderlecht, Qarabag
Barca, Bayern, Spurs, Leipzig

 

At least it's not embarrassing being knocked out by those teams as it would have been by Porto, Anderlecht, Qarabag. That'll be an excellent draw for Barça.

 

can't have two german teams, so maybe Juve instead of Bayern?

 

and while Spurs are a better team, we probably end up drawing Liverpool for the added drama.

also interesting how much stronger Pot2 is than Pot1

 

It's a pretty dumb format because the Russian and Ukrainian champions are seeded. Napoli, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Roma in pot three are stronger than Shaktar and Spartak. This likely means that there will be two very easy groups and two groups of death unless the weakest teams in pot 1 draw the strongest teams in pot 3.

 

Barca Juve

 

So PSG gets Bayern!! YEAH!!

 

BARCA gets JUVE!! DAMN!!

Of course Dortmund gets LPB.. now without Dembele!! Should let Dembele stay there so they have a chance!!

 

So Olympiakos, Juve and Barca!! This just became impossible!!

 

Valverde goes back to Olympiakos

 

Why?