Actually, we may be the only team to do this without switching Conferences (i.e. Houston, KC, Chicago...). So we got *that* going for us, oh yeah. For 2016 I am upping my "last place!" prediction a while ago to "something better". I am looking forward to see if our starting 11 looks like a real MLS team. R
Gashi is exactly the type of singing all the smart pundits say mls should make. I predict that my interest will be much greater that it was a month ago. I have hope again, that's something.
I have been holding off on my predictions for the season. My thought was to go through the roster and evaluate each piece. As I am looking at it, we have a competitive roster IF coaching is solid. Hear me out (and I am guessing it won't be a hard sell). Our roster is now good enough to make the playoffs with solid coaching. They are not good enough to carry through without it, however. Some rosters would make the playoffs even if I coached, the Rapids are not one of them. So, my prediction for the season rests completely on coaching. Which I am having a hard time evaluating given past history and my hope for Pablo's coaching improvement. At this point in his coaching career, he should have learned enough lessons to be a middle-of-the-pack coach or better. If I had to pick, I would predict that the team will start slowly (killer first quarter schedule) and Pablo will not be coach by June 1 (I don't completely blame him given the rest of the RFO, but losses mount up and someone has to be the scapegoat). We then finish off the year by rebuilding (again), although most of the pieces are already here. We end the season NOT in last place, but not in the playoffs either. Next year we have Spencer as coach and he melds the (mostly) current group into a playoff team. We are not close to top in the league, but everyone is excited just to be a mere playoff team again. Expectations are low enough that just being in the playoffs raises the excitement level. Given how early it is in the pre-season, my thoughts are subject to change. Although I didn't really go out on much of a limb. rod.
These are good predictions, based in some logical thought. Having little confidence in the FO and coaching staff leads me to believe the scenario posted by Rod above, or just about anything poorer, including worst record in MLS, is possible. I have trouble believing Pablo will be out by June. Hinchey seems oddly committed to him. But continued poor performance may increase the public pressure and league embarrassment to a point where Hinchey/Bravo have no choice but to replace him. In which case Pablo will probably be asked to step down publicly (to save some face) but will continue to work with the club in some capacity.
Agreed that he may be asked to work with the club. Might have been easier to head up the Academy (or youth development) before things really have gone south, but I don't see them getting to mid-year with Pablo if we are mired in last place. I don't blame all of this on Pablo, and really hope it turns around. A couple of wins in the early part of the season may give us all hope. rod.
Alright, guess it's time to put some things down. With Gashi addition we will for sure score more goals. Golden boot winner will exceed 10 goals, but I can't decide who it will be between Doyle and Gashi. Call it Gashi. Challenge will be giving up more than we can put in net with or without Howard. Still think teams can shut down our attack at the midfield. Like most have pointed out, after the first game, it will be challenge getting wins PM probably will survive most of the season before finally getting put out of his misery. Too many rumors, way too many really out there about FO continued targeting/ priority signing of a Mexican National teamer, no clue who, but think regardless of how much sense it makes they will sign someone.
We will play .500 ball for the 1st quarter of the season going 3-3-3. Then people will figure out how to defend/attack against the Rapids and we will go 7-13-5 the rest of the way with a final record of 10-16-8 for a 9th place finish. No wooden spoon. Sorry...
My thoughts: 1) The forward line has improved compared to Day 1 last year. The tactics for that forward line likely hasn't improved. This will lead to, in our first 1-2 games, improved-looking attack, shortly followed by offensive impotence when teams catch on to our only having Plan A and Plan B for getting the ball in the net, with no nuance. Our offense mildly improves compared to last year, but will need a midseason addition to boost its numbers, long after our playoff chances are effectively snuffed out. 2) The midfield largely seems to be a wash compared to last year. We essentially traded one wily Latin veteran who contributed in limited minutes, for a younger Latin mid who sadly seems likely to have limited minutes for one reason or another. We essentially traded two ineffective d-mids for another ineffective Dmid and, well, Watts. Powers is still the same x-factor as last year, with tactical questions about his best position left unanswered by our tactical leader. Serna irregularly starts because of lactate levels or supposed U23 exhaustion before we trade him. 3) Our defense is respectable, but worse than last year until July, losing many 2-0 or 4-2 games, rather than last year's 1-0 losses. MacMath is shaky, and fast offenses like Dallas expose our lack of speed in the back 4. Howard and a summer CB arrives, and our numbers look...about the same as the first half of the year, conceding slightly fewer goals, but tying more games. 4) The difficult first 12 games of the year doesn't kill us...but we are in triage. It's the annual summer swoon that does us in, and Pablo is actually let go in late August. 5) Javi Morales is injured midseason, and a surprisingly poor, injury- and call-up-struck Seattle challenge us for last all year. We finish 9th, out of the playoff running by early September. Hinchey and Bravo keep their jobs.
I think the over/under is about 40 pts. I am going out on a limb and taking the over. Maybe 41 or 42 points. That would put us 4-5 points better than last season. Offense gets better, defense a little worse, coaching is stagnant.
Using 'the math' a 1 to 2 win to loss ratio will yield 1 point/match, draws will reinforce that 1 point/match perfectly so a finish in the low 30s seems predestined, using 5 for margin of error doesn't get us into playoffs?
We may go goalless if both Gashi and Doyle are away for the Euros. I think we're capable of winning more than last year - enough more to maybe contest for the playoffs for a while but finish around 8th. But if we have to go very far into our bench for very long, we'll be back in Wooden Spoon territory.
I admire you guys' optimism, not picking the Rapids for last. But then again, a lot generally has to go wrong for a team to finish last. There are still plenty of problems--I think the midfield will still have problems moving the ball. I don't know if they really will try Powers at holding mid, or if Pappa will play enough to make that a regular thing. Otherwise, Cronin/Azira/Watts does not seem as good as Cronin/Pittinari/Sarvas/Watts. Pittinari lost the ball a lot but wasn't all bad in defense. And Gashi/Doyle are reasons for optimism even if they can't do it by themselves. Having a couple good goal scorers working off each other can cover up some warts.
Luckily, MLS is taking some games off in the period. Euros start June 10, Rapids have a game May 28--will they play that game, then leave for their national teams? Rapids play on the road vs Chicago June 18 (they'll want to win this one, so that hurts a bit), and on the road vs. the Galaxy Wed. June 22 (a tough one at full strength). Then they don't play again until July 4. Euros first knockout round is June 25-26.
I'm sticking with my Wooden Spoon prediction. There is a difference between individual players who separately have some skills and a group of players who play as a team. With the current coaching and technical staff situation, I'm not convinced that the Rapids will improve over last year. I hope I'm wrong, but these ARE the Rapids we're talking about.
To me, it's not optimism, it's thinking that Houston got significantly worse. They lost some decent defenders and a good chunk of their midfield, including Brad Davis, and their big signings this off-season have been a couple of second division Spanish players and getting Cristian Maidana and Andrew Wenger from Philly. I actually think we have a better team than they do.
Rapids finish with points in the low-40s and in 8th place in the West The Rapids get less than 12 points in their first 9 games, leading to Pablo's removal as head coach sometime in that stretch. Spencer takes over and rides the "new coach" bounce to a win over FSL in game 10 Colorado pulls an upset in the third Rocky Mountain Cup game in Sandy and retain the Cup for their first back-to-back RMC wins since '05-'06. Pablo stays with the organization in another capacity (Academy?) We win a USOC game, maybe two, but bow out before the competition gets really interesting Howard shows up in July and immediately becomes the best keeper in MLS but its not what the team needs to make a playoff push Gashi scores 11 to become team MVP and Golden Boot winner Ramirez never returns to Colorado The Rapids make one more notable signing (name player, not necessarily DP) this season Spencer retains coaching position into 2017 even though results after taking over for Pablo don't really deserve it Bravo keeps his job into next year
Rapids win the wooden spoon, despite beating Dallas 8-0 and despite signing Tim Howard mid season. After signing Tim Howard we tie the next eight games 0-0.
I think at end of year we will be happy (if true) the JJ contract was 1 year only deal. Ever since the WC he has looked a step slow and regressing. However still better then anyone else we could put out there on paper.
I never have predictions. But here's what I think for this season. I think they'll still be bad, so I'll pick them to finish 9th. I don't think Pablo will be fired during the season. The rest are just vague thoughts that don't necessarily translate to predictions--I think Pappa will do less than most Rapids fans are thinking...kind of like Sanchez. He'll do some things to make people cheer but the effect on the scoreboard and standings will be underwhelming. Gashi seems like a great pickup, and Williams a good one. I think the other impact signings will be too limited by players availability (Jones: suspension, injuries, callups; Howard: midseason window) to have a big effect on the season. I think the Rapids will still have plenty of problems moving the ball and creating chances. The D will still rely heavily on having numbers back as the individual skills/abilities of the defenders are average at best, and this will hurt the attack. I think Doyle will be sharp but will not have high goal totals due to a lack of service. The best hope for the season is that Doyle and Gashi really work well together and having two very good finishers helps the Rapids score more goals than their passing ability/chance creation warrants, and allows them to steal some games.