2016 Pac12 Thread

Thanks for creating a PAC 12 thread, I was looking forward to one.

I think Stanford will dominate this year. They are LOADED. They have no weak links in their starting lineup. I have them getting to the College Cup Finals, and I don't see anyone stopping them. But, we'll see. I think USC will be number 2 in the conference, as they have a very strong returning back line, which is bolstered by Morgan Andrews who could be the best striker in the college game this year. If UCLA had Pugh, I would be them in 2nd and a challenge to Stanford's dominance. But, she won't be suiting up this year, and that makes the Bruins drop significantly in my opinion. They should be 3rd, but that also depends on how the defense holds and how well their freshmen get and pick up the slack. I think UW will surprise, as they have most everyone back from last year, with the exception of Kelcie Hedge (most likely redshirting this season with the under 20 team). Cal should be 5th, maybe higher as Boyd might be the 2nd best goalie in the conference behind Campbell. I think Arizona will be 6th, but they have a veteran team returning, and could surprise. Should get 6 teams for sure, maybe 7 into the tourney. Will be an exciting year.

 

Stanford will win the college cup. UCLA is a lot stronger and will give them a run. Fleming and Hernandez will more than make up for the Pugh enrolling in January. Jenkins is healthy and from the first few days of practice is looking back in AA form. The defense is looking good. 'SC will be right there assuming they find some offense as their defense will be strong. Cal won't be far behind. With Onomonu getting a 5th year due to injury they will have the best one two attacking punch in the conference. After those 4 it's going to be a knife fight with at least 7-9 teams getting into the tournament.

 

On the other end of the spectrum, wondering if Oregon can finish somewhere near the middle of the pack and save Kat. I think she may be on a short leash, at least that's some of the rumors. Absent significant improvement, UO made be back looking for a coach.

 

Sorry to hear a out Dom Randle. That is her 2nd ACL tear. She tore her ACL the 1st time prior to USC and I believe she already redshirted her freshmen year. Her injury will hurt the USC backline for sure. Is Aly Prisock playing in the U20 WWC? If so, there goes USC starting center defenders from last season.

 

She can apply for and injury hardship exception. Whether she wants to is another issue.

 

2016 Pac-12 Women’s Soccer Coaches Poll

1. Stanford (6) 116
2. USC (4) 112
3. California 96
4. UCLA (2) 94
5. Arizona 70
6. Washington 68
7. Washington State 65
8. Arizona State 36
9. Utah 35
10. Colorado 31
11. Oregon State 28
12. Oregon 20

 

Them's motivatin' words, sir

 

Apparently, the other conference coaches aren't too confident of Amanda Cromwell's work with her own UCLA recruits. Or maybe without Mallory Pugh, they're not too impressed overall on this year's class and its chances of bringing the Bruin program completely out of the toilet.

 

Well, I just spoke with a good coach friend of mine about his expectations for freshman. He laughed and said he has none. His program would be in trouble he said if he counted on freshmen. His faith goes into the returning players since he has no idea what he's going to get when he throws a freshman out there. So my guess is that this ranking is more to do with the returning players than the incoming ones. Next year's ranking will be more of a reflection of them.

 

Sorry to hear that

 

They picked Washington State #3, so I support this article

We'll see how it goes. USA W20s and W17s have some stiff tests this fall, too. Good thing we can always count on the WNT in Rio, eh? oh snap --

 

Umm...aren't the teams just listed in the order they finished last year?

 

Glove Stinks,
What TDS? LOL.
It is your fault. You are still reading TDS.
Anyway, these preseason rankings are all BS.
Cheers!

 

Here are what a simulation I've run produces as results:

Arizona State loss @ Boston U
Arizona loss @ Pepperdine
California win over Cal Poly
Colorado win @ Air Force
Oregon tie at Hawaii
Oregon State win over Cal State Northridge (Sunday)
USC win @ Santa Clara
Stanford win @ Navy
UCLA win @ San Diego State
Utah win over Weber State
Washington State tie v BYU
Washington tie @ Portland

 

We'll see on Arizona v Pepperdine. This simulated result is based on Arizona being the #7 team in the Pac12 and Pepperdine being the #2 team in the WCC. Based on average ratings of teams in those two positions, Pepperdine should be significantly stronger than Arizona, plus the game is at Pepperdine.

 

Could be, although I don't assign much value to the NSCAA rankings or any other similar rankings. I prefer data-driven simulations. My simulation,which uses Chris Henderson's data-driven "within conference" ratings (see HEROsports.com) really are just for fun, so it will be interesting to see what a pre-season simulation like this does in relation to what the NSCAA's pre-season rankings do. If the simulation does as well as the NSCAA -- or better -- then we'll be able to tell them that, so far as pre-season rankings are concerned, they have become obsolete!

ADDITION: My simulations make adjustments for game location. When I compare to opponents' ratings after adjusting them for the game location, if they are within a certain range I treat the game as a tie. The "tie range" is the range within which the higher rated team has less than a 50% chance of winning. If it looks like the simulation is doing a pretty good job in terms of game results, I'll give a more detailed explanation of how it works. A "pretty good job" would be one in which the higher rated team wins roughly 75% of the time, which is about where almost all statistical rating systems come in.