CONCACAF teams will be hard to beat for any asian teams now. If it happens, Iran have more chances than Jap/Aus/SK because they got same level but lately are less known in America. If in worse case, one of big3 CR, MEX, USA or the 4th ranked Honduras drops to playoffs, we will have even less chances remember they are studying more about asian teams now because of the better results lately. As you expressed in 5th point, Poor Iraq has to keep playing like god but will be tough to get the playoffs tickets. Unlucky they went to the other group with UAE/KSA. All three teams are gonna kill each other and blood points everywhere helping JAP/AUS conclude their tickets faster. + Remember the sticky hell away games in Thai SouthEast. Iraq suffered with them, will probably lose points again. Like know, all Honduras is emotionally in national fiesta cause they meet SK in QF. In this game also, whoever score first will go to next round. One mistake and Adios.
Only Iraqi fanboys would put Olympics football which is a youth tournament followed by few millions, in the same sentence as World Cup, the biggest sporting event watched by billions of people. Last time you managed to qualify for a World Cup 4 decades ago, mainly thanks to a strange East/West AFC Zone format and Iran boycotting the qualifiers , you went 3 and o out with 0 points, in an easy group with no top teams. Your players' only highlight on the biggest stage, was spitting on an opposition player' face in front of the whole world watching. So yeah, first qualify for a World Cup, get a single point maybe, then make such silly comparisons.
USA/Mexico will be difficult but Costa Rica/Honduras are inconsistent. In fact, Asia is favored against Honduras because Honduran teams are too aggressive--> Red Cards. As for other teams, any of Top 4 should be able to beat Panama/Jamaica. Yes Iraq may struggle but so will Saudi/UAE/Thailand. 3rd place is wide open IMO. This is assuming Japan/Australia clean up points like they usually do. Doesnt get any easier when they have to play 3rd place of Group A. Assume Korea makes it. Iran/Uzbekistan/Qatar/ are no walk in the park. Iraq also doesnt have home advantage. Would be an acconplishment if they make it.
https://ahdaaf.me/2016/08/13/iraq-v-south-africa-iraqi-olympic-exit-rio/ Another interesting article on Iraq's age cheating which also asks the question "how can Iraq tie Brazil so comfortably at u23 level then lose to them 6-0 at senior level?". Btw @Mussab86 your own federation has written Younis Mahmoud's date of birth as 1979 in a friendly sheet agaisnt Syria. Do you still want to change it on Wikipedia?
Our Olympics dream is over. Leading whole match, one mistake. 0-1. + Egyptian antifutbol referee and latino grassrolling combo. Normal human referee can't let player stop 5 minutes and add no extra minutes. Honduras was lucky we couldn't concrete but Brazil or Colombia will have no mercy with their cheap pussy style game. At the end, this loss will help our NT do better job with this type of teams during WCQ stage.