2016 Olympic Women's Soccer--General discussion

Discussion in '2016 Olympic Women's Soccer Tournament' started by lil_one, Jun 6, 2015.

  1. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    It is confirmed that no team can win back-to-back WWC and Olympics.

    Did you notice which years were the only ones when USWNT didn't win the gold at Olympics? Yeah, Sydney 2000, after WWC 1999 and Rio 2016, after WWC 2015. You can win the Olympics if you lost WWC only... :rolleyes:
     
  2. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I kind of hate that both semifinals are rematches from the group stage. 12 teams in a tournament really doesn't work well.
     
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  3. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    and Brazil easily beat Sweden 5-1. Sweden's underperformed this entire tournament(except the PKs), so Brazil should easily win. That Canada-Germany match might be a different story, and the better game to watch.
     
  4. Game-Ball

    Game-Ball Member

    Jan 17, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I hope for a Brazil vs Canada gold medal match so I can watch Marta vs Sinclair one more time.

    In 2002 FIFA sanctioned the first youth world cup for U19 and Canada won over Brasil in a penalty shoot out. The United States prevailed over Germany. Canada lost in the finals to the US.

    Sinclair won the golden boot. The tournament all star team consisted of 4 x Canada , 4 x United States, 3 x Brasil.

    Marta vs Sinclair one more time s'il vous plait.
     
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  5. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006

    Remember it well. Then Sinclair came back to school and won an NCAA championship.
     
  6. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Both semifinals are rematches from the group stage. Using the official FIFA ratings, the approximate odds are:
    Germany (2115) .733 probability of advancing to finals over Canada (1938)
    Brazil (1982 + 100 pts homefield advantage) .613 probability of advancing over Sweden (2002)
    ¶ Roughly recalculating the ratings using the Olympics games played thus far:
    Germany (2115-42=2073) .557 over Canada ( 1938+92= 2030)
    Brazil (1982-3=1979 + 100) .640 over Sweden (2002-24=1978)
    [also posted at Equalizer Soccer]
     
  7. Calci0

    Calci0 Member

    Jun 22, 2013
    NC
    Club:
    Juventus FC
    Sweden will, not leave themselves open like they did in the 1st game. Expect a tactic similar to what they rolled out against the US. If it's not broke........
     
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  8. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm going to take the liberty of cross-posting something which I also put on the FIFA World Ranking thread:

    Brief note re using the ratings to determine the probable result of games at the Olympics. Through the quarterfinals, there have been 22 matches.

    The median rating difference between the two teams is 172
    The average expected win probability (for the favored team) has been .769
    The actual win percentage (won/loss/tie) has been .727
    The average FIFA chart result (using goals scored and the FIFA table) has been .694
    The expected win probability based on the median rating difference of 172 points is .727 (!)

    Important note - I used the official FIFA ratings EXCEPT I substituted a Massey-based rating for the two lowest ranked teams South Africa (1693 in place of the official 1442 ) and Zimbabwe (1508 in place of 1208)
     
  9. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This looks like it matches pretty closely with the results I've come up with using NCAA D1 Women's Soccer data: the favored team wins roughly 75% of the time.
     
  10. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just noticed the referees for both semifinals will be the same referees as the group stage matches between the same teams...! Lucila Venegas (Mexico) will be the referee for Brazil/Sweden, just as she was for their group stage game. And Hwang Ok Ri will be referee for Germany/Canada again. Since the refereeing didn't seem a matter of controversy in either group stage game, let's hope it bodes well for the semifinals. In both cases, the teams should have some confidence in their referees and they'll know what to expect.
    [also posted at EqualizerSoccer]
     
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  11. FawcettFan14

    FawcettFan14 Member+

    Mar 19, 2004
    Colorado
    Seriously. Raising it to 16 teams would not be difficult. At least 12 is better than the ridiculous 10 teams from 2004, when two groups had three teams and the other had four! That was insane.
     
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  12. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    FIFA doesn't want that because it challenges the WWC in importance.
    IOC doesn't want that because it's more athletes to house, at greater cost to the host nation.



    So it is a consipracy :D both of those organizations against all of us
     
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  13. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    It's one of the IOC's really stupid rules.... They hate having team tournaments with more than 12 teams, their argument being something along the lines of total number of athletes competing. But look at all the big team tournaments (i.e. not counting anything "doubles" like beach volleyball or tennis) - they all either have 12 teams (field hockey, indoor volleyball, basketball, rugby, WoSo, men's water polo, handball) or 8 teams (team fencing, synchro swimming, women's water polo). I think the only reason BroSo is at 16 is because FIFA petitioned for it a while back....
     
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  14. FawcettFan14

    FawcettFan14 Member+

    Mar 19, 2004
    Colorado
    Now that the Women's World Cup includes 24 teams, raising the Olympics to 16 will not challenge it.
    The IOC is fabulously wealthy. And the men's tournament includes 16 teams.
     
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  15. BrooklynSoccer

    BrooklynSoccer Member+

    Jan 22, 2008
    I'm not sure if it will be that much better. Germany had 28% possession in their first match, but had a lot of fouls.
     
  16. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    Ref should have played advantage. That was one of the few times Sweden had numbers forward.
     
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  17. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In the SF's we had 2 rematches of group stage games, and yet opposite results in both. Ah, the beautiful game...
     
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  18. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    Go Sweden.
    It'll be better for Global Women's Football if someone new wins a major tournament title.
    And let Pia win another one. She was a better player than Neid, and would still smoke her on the field of battle.
    Neid wasn't all that.

     
  19. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #169 kolabear, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016
    Update regarding the Elo probabilities and game results, through the semifinals (24 matches)-

    the median rating difference between two teams has been 172 points
    the average expected win percentage for the higher rated team has been .754
    the actual win percentage (won/loss/tie) for the higher rated team has been .729
    the average game result for the higher rated team using game scores and the FIFA table has been .694

    [using Massey converted ratings in place of the official ratings for the two lowest rated teams South Africa and Zimbabwe]

    So the ratings seem to be doing a reasonably good job of predicting results, including the incidence of upsets (including ties). What does it mean?

    For a gambler (or someone making pre-tournament predictions in an office pool or on BigSoccer Forum) - not much. The favorite has only won outright 14 out of 24 matches. (Thankfully I'm not a gambling man)

    But if the ratings are reasonably accurate, it means it's a useful guide in evaluating how a team is doing, not so much during a tournament like the Olympics but in between big tournaments. It tells you something about how strong your opposition is; it tells you something about a team's strength-of-schedule. You can use it to chart performance ratings during any given period of time - to show how well a team is performing during it. Are they playing at an elite level? Are they playing at a top 10 level? Are they playing at the level of teams likely to qualify for the next World Cup? Etc.
     
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  20. terrysoccer

    terrysoccer Member

    Toronto FC
    Canada
    Jun 17, 2015
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Not having any sour grapes here as GER was full measure for their win today, but it seems rather counterproductive to have had the semi-final pairings workout this way. Those battles had already been fought in group play. The only way to assure fairness across group play assignments would have dictated different pairings. Anyway to avoid this happening again with this format or does the format need to change?
     
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  21. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    This is one of the main reasons why 16 teams is a lot better than 12.
    You pretty much can't have a rematch against a group opponent until the Final, instead of the Semifinal.
    Both Semifinal matches today were rematches of group play, which enabled today's matches to become moofball.
     
  22. McSkillz

    McSkillz Member+

    UCLA Bruins
    United States
    Nov 22, 2014
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So is Sweden going to be able to park the bus for another 120 minutes and hope for PKs again? Can Germany do what USA and Brazil couldn't do and break through the wall? And most importantly, are the Swedish kits going to be sold at H&M stores at the local mall?
     
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  23. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Frankly, I'd never thought I would have said that, but I guess right now I'd slightly prefer Germany to win. :cautious:

    And don't get me wrong, no hate towards Sweden from my part, I even love Lotta Schelin and I guess it would be a wonderful way for her to put an end to her international career (I don't think she will play for many years longer) with a trophy that escaped her for all of these years with National Team...

    But the fact is: this Sweden's style of play is too ugly for my taste. :confused: I wouldn't mind a good defensive team, with clinical finishers up there and an elegant way to hold the bunker... but Sweden didn't look particularly spectacular or smart in their defense either (and remember in one of the games they even took 5!): just two tight horizontal lines retreated to their half of the pitch and balls launched all the way beyond the side-lines; they didn't defend very tidily or in a way that was at least technically good to see: they couldn't seem to string two passes together and they basically gave away possession all the time, in the hope that the opponent wouldn't have found a way to make use of it; they were vastily out-shot and out-corner-kicked (made up that word in this very moment) and when they had some scarce counter-attacks, their FWs seemed unable to clinically convert, like you would expect from a "good" defense-and-counterattack team, but they just showed some random running, and excess dribblings that were coiling onto themselves before producing a serious shot.
    In a few words: I am afraid Brazil is more to blame for not scoring and not converting their possession and territorial dominance into a real win, than Sweden is to praise for their defensive game (didn't watch the USA-Sweden match, but I wonder if the same can be said about it). Versus a better team than Brazil (but, at this point, is there one in the world, since even World Champions met the same ending? :cautious:), Sweden's gameplan wouldn't have worked, not because it was a failed gameplan in itself, but because Sweden's execution was miles away from clean and perfect.

    So, I felt the need to speak up my mind before the final: it's not that I "hate" Sweden (they did what they had to do, and what they could do) and I have no prejudice against them (I am not from USA and I am as neutral as it can get, since my country's team, Italy, and the team I root for, Japan, didn't even qualify for Olympics), but I don't think that in this tournament they showcased the quality that you would expect from an Olympic Champion team; should they win (unless they put out a stellar and very convincing performance in the last match), I guess it would be quite a regress for the overall quality of women's football. I repeat, nothing against Sweden and nothing against defensive game or even "bunkering" at all (they are playing-styles that are part of the game), but if no team in the world can dismantle a so half-baked and poorly executed gameplan like the one Sweden showed, this, in my humble opinion, means that the women's game is in a bad shape (and that it lacks fantasy, technique and sound tactical plans from coaches and from best offensive players alike).

    Last disclaimer: I guess I clarified quite well my thinking, so I will welcome any criticism to my point of view, but I wouldn't like to be called "Sweden-hater", "Solo's companion", "unable to understand the legitimacy of defensive game" or such. What I dislike is not defensive play or even "bunkering" in itself: it's Sweden's way of executing this style of play that, despite coming across as a winning strategy in this tournament, looks very dull and unattractive to me by any point of view (technical, tactical, etc.).
     
  24. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    With only three groups (and assuming no group-stage rematches in the QFs), you're guaranteed to have at least two possible same-group SFs and guaranteed to have at least one possible same-group SFs in each half, so there's no way to avoid the possibility of both SFs being group rematches. If you wanted to avoid this in a twelve-team tournament, you either need to have dynamic SF scheduling (no organizing committee or participating team would like that, they want to know who could go where the instant the groups are done) or switch to a group stage that's 4-groups-of-3-teams.
     
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  25. Airox

    Airox Member

    Mar 14, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Blissett's post is a bit long winded, but says exactly what I think. Granted, I'm a fan of the US, but I had no problem with Sweden playing that tactic. I was more disappointed that the US failed to handle the situation.
     
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