2016 NCAA D-I Women's Soccer Tournament Prediction Contest

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by Soccerhunter, Nov 7, 2016.

  1. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Current points -- user name = potential points
    67 -- Kurt Kline = 127
    66 -- HeadSpun = 140
    64 -- cpthomas = 154
    64 -- Millennium = 154
    64 -- TWSWBC = 154
    62 -- mentor5959 = 138
    62 -- mpr2477 = 152

    For those of you who would like to get a head start on the scoring during each round, I have put together a quick list to see how many points the leaders can potential end up with. From here on out, for every choice you get wrong, just subtract 6 points for every choice you got wrong in round 3 from your potential points, in order to see where you would end up (if all your future choices come out correct). In rounds 4, 5, and 6 you would subtract 8 points for every wrong choice or eliminated team you picked. Please note that I have already subtracted the points lost for teams picked to go further, which have already been eliminated (i.e., Stanford and Florida State).
     
  2. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree, they're actually sort of their own thing. I'll be watching to see how the two of them compare to both groups.

    And, I'm going to feel really bad if either of them comes out on top. I've never trusted either one.
     
  3. Kurt Kline

    Kurt Kline Member

    Ajax
    United States
    Jun 26, 2012
    Yorba Linda, CA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks MiLL...can't you at least let me have 24 hours of gloating before pointing out my glaring inefficiencies in the later rounds? :)
     
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  4. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hahaha!!! Sorry Kurt, my bad. Totally understand.
    Congrats, by the way, on being in the lead!!!

    I've been keeping my own spreadsheet to see where I stood.
    I should've waited till tomorrow, although, I think we'll have a clear cut winner by then.
    Not sure, if the later rounds will even matter, not many points in them.

    .
     
  5. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    Oh I disagree about the latter rounds not mattering. The reason being that we have a pretty wide divergence of picks for the semi finals and Champion. So any contestants ending up within 16 points of the leader by the end of the quarter finals has a real shot because the entries are so diverse this year. So consider the following facts.

    Our 24 contestants have picked a total of 10 different champions. Five of those champion picks have three or four votes. With Stanford and FSU already eliminated, that opens up seven other championship possibilities that others have chosen. So there's 8 points in the mix for a majority of contestants right there.

    Then if one considers that in the semis, contestants have picked (excluding Stanford and FSU) 7 other possible opponents to play which will provide a differential of another 8 points for picking the runner-up.

    So, while we will know more tomorrow and things will become even more clear when the final four is known, I am forecasting that there will still be five or six players within 16 points by that time and some of those could luck out and win it all.
     
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  6. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    Big win for USC over BYU. Can someone explain to me how BYU was just a #4 seed? Their ranking and RPI seem more consistent with a 3 or even 2. Very tough third round game for USC, but they did it again. USC is very strong.
     
  7. Kazoo

    Kazoo Member

    Nov 1, 2015
    What is the deal with the Georgetown field. It's impossible to see it well via a livestream, but it is brown and hard and it looks like they are almost playing on dirt.
     
  8. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    The third round is all finished up and this contest is beginning to sort itself out. Perhaps like a a horse race or an 800 meter foot race coming around the last turn we see a group clearly in the lead and a few others who may yet overtake the leaders, but we also see that there is perhaps half or more who now are lagging pretty far behind with little change of coming in first.

    Millenium and TWSWBC are now tied for the lead. TWSWBC will take it all if UNC wins the championship. Millenium will win if USC wins over West Virginia in the finals but will loose to sweepsit if UNC beats South Carolina. Duke picker mentor5959 has an outside chance if the final four picks fall the wrong way for the leaders, and cpthomas also has a shot at winning if things fall just right. I'll leave it to the rest of you to see if HeadSpun, the guru, castate, or Liesse00 has a prayer (I've run out of time...)

    Usually, it's all over but the shouting by the semifinal round, but this contest might get decided on the final day (or not).

    Human Division Third Round Contest Scores

    100 MILLENNIUM
    100 TWSWBC
    96 sweepsit
    90 HeadSpun
    90 the guru
    88 castate
    88 cpthomas
    87 Liesse00
    86 mentor5959
    85 Kurt Kline
    84 Soccerhunter
    83 Glove Stinks
    83 Ingoldsby
    81 Jim Halpert
    80 REGION 1
    78 Persin
    75 Got Jukes?
    74 mpr2477
    73 Merlin 13
    72 RtD!
    71 KickitHard
    71 NilamCA
    70 dmthomas49
    68 ziggy1010
     
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  9. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    Without comment, here are the Third Round Computer/Statistical/Poll Scores

    87 Iteration 5 URPI
    87 Non-Conf ARPI
    86 Standards
    85 Massey
    83 ARPI
    83 NCSAA Coaches Poll
    79 Top Drawer Rankings
    72 ARPI+Conf Stand+Conf Rank
     
  10. Gilmoy

    Gilmoy Member+

    Jun 14, 2005
    Pullman, Washington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Stanford's loss does not compute.
     
  11. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    I quite agree. However watching the video, it becomes momentarily tempting to become a believer in the "Soccer Gods" who clearly were for some reason very annoyed with the Cardinal on Friday.

    Just glancing at the video one sees on the Greek amphitheater stage the two defenders in the box with simultaneous choreograph-like precision separately fall to the ground leaving the shooter open to shoot from 13 yards. The chorus wails. The shooter takes her shot, but right at the keeper. Then the last defender lying prone on the ground stirs herself to lift her leg in an attempt to block the shot and deflects it away from the keeper into the corner of the net. The Furies cheer.

    Al Capone or Bugsy could not possibly have paid any one to choreograph such a stunt. Soooo... if I ever see this precise sequence again, I will really have to consider the existence of vengeful Soccer Gods.
     
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  12. European football fan

    Dec 16, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Agree, it was surreal. I still don't understand why Stanford could have punished by the Soccer God. May be coach Smidt got a little Divine intervention because he is one of the best and nicest coaches in NCAA?
     
  13. Nacional Tijuana

    Nacional Tijuana St. Louis City

    St. Louis City SC
    May 6, 2003
    San Diego, Calif.
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    When I was watching the Gators match today, I thought I heard two of their players were suspended and rejoined kind of late. Did I miss something? If not, who? I can't find on Google.
     
  14. Kazoo

    Kazoo Member

    Nov 1, 2015
    The foul weather ruined some of today's game.s Heavy winds in the UVa-Georgetown game, and UCLA played in the snow at West Virginia. The poor Bruins were not comfortable in 34 degree weather and sliding around in the snow.
     
  15. David

    David Member

    Jun 2, 2000
    I kind of doubt that any team in the tournament (West Virginia included) is comfortable in 34 degree weather and sliding around in the snow!
     
  16. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree. I didn't see anything indicating one team was more weather-disadvantaged than the other in the West Virginia v UCLA game. I thought the play was pretty good under the circumstances.
     
  17. winster

    winster Member

    Jul 7, 2008
    Club:
    Besiktas JK
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think Georgetown uses Bermuda Grass. If so, DC is probably a little too far north for using Bermuda grass in late November.

    Georgetown always had a great field early in the season: smooth, flat, soft. However, the field progressively gets worse as the season goes on. The boys and girls team both practice and play on the same field and it doesn't seem to hold up well when it is played on in the rain....and again depending on the type of grass, the cold weather late season could really harm field quality.
     
  18. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting. At the University of Portland, whose Merlo Field almost always is pristine, the teams do not practice on on the field. They practice on an adjacent field. I doubt any field can hold up with three or four hours of practice each weekday plus games on weekends. And, perhaps the Georgetown grass is dormant this time of year. That's what happens to the field at Texas A&M -- at the College Cup I attended there, they had to paint the field so it would look good on TV.
     
  19. winster

    winster Member

    Jul 7, 2008
    Club:
    Besiktas JK
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I guess I don't know if they hold each and every practice on that field, but they do hold at least some practices on the game-field. It is literally the only on-campus grass playing surface for any sport. There is a field turf "field" that is used for lacrosse and football and an old astro-turf style field hockey pitch that is too unsafe for varsity sports...so they play intramurals there. The baseball, softball, and field hockey teams all practice and play off-campus.
     
  20. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As SoccerHunter pointed out earlier, the winner of the contest will most likely come down to the final.

    Here's a list of the most likely winners of the contest, depending on which school wins the NC:
    If North Carolina wins the National Championship, then twswbc will win the contest.
    If Univ. of S. Calif. should win the championship, then sweepsit or millennium win the contest.
    If West Virginia wins the championship, then cpthomas or castate will win the contest.
    If Duke wins the championship, then mentor5959 has an outside chance to win the contest.
    If none of the above win the championship, then TheGuru has an outside chance.
     
  21. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    Or not. Often the winner is known several games in advance. Although this year, I think you are correct and that that the final will decide.

    I will post the official quartefinals results on Saturday late evening. ( I, in a matter of hours, will be without internet or cell phone through out the Thanksgiving holidays.

    Thanks for your input, Millenium!

    Cheers to all>
     
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  22. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #97 MiLLeNNiuM, Nov 25, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2016
  23. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, I'm officially out of the contest with SC's 0-1 loss to NC.
    Best I can do is 2nd place.

    Note to future self: always bank on the better programs and conferences; don't get swayed by team records.
     
  24. Soccerhunter

    Soccerhunter Member+

    Sep 12, 2009
    The Contest Scores after the Quarterfinals.

    I got in a half hour ago after being out of touch both by internet or cell phone for four days. Was eager to see the results of the quarterfinals... Impressive!! ...Teams having got this far are all struggling for 1-0 wins!

    The current contest scores are posted below. I haven't had time to to look at the combinations and permutations of the scores and remaining game possibilities, but at first glance, there could be at least two possible winners depending on how the final four goes. Sweepsit and TWSWBC are in the running!

    Additionally for the esteemed second and third place prizes place prize, there appears also to be a numberst of possibilities.

    Stay tuned!

    POST QUARTERFINAL SCORES

    Human Division

    124 TWSWBC
    120 sweepsit
    116 MILLENNIUM
    112 cpthomas
    106 HeadSpun
    104 castate
    104 REGION 1
    103 Liesse00
    100 Soccerhunter
    99 Glove Stinks
    99 Ingoldsby
    98 the guru
    94 mentor5959
    93 Kurt Kline
    89 Jim Halpert
    87 KickitHard
    86 dmthomas49
    86 Persin
    84 ziggy1010
    81 Merlin 13
    79 NilamCA
    75 Got Jukes?
    74 mpr2477
    72 RtD!

    Machine/Statistical/Poll Entries

    101 Massey
    99 NCSAA Coaches Poll
    95 Iteration 5 URPI
    95 Non-Conf ARPI
    94 Standards
    91 ARPI
    87 Top Drawer Rankings
    80 ARPI+Conf Stand+Conf Rank
     
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  25. MiLLeNNiuM

    MiLLeNNiuM Member+

    Aug 28, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Looks like the humans are killing the machines/stats/etc. this year.
     

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