2016 ladder prediction contest

Hi everyone! In past years, I've done a prediction contest that combines a preseason ladder prediction with week-by-week game predictions. These contests have shrunk noticeably each year I've run them, so I'm going to do something different this year to simplify it down, which will hopefully get more people involved and encourage discussion. We're just going to do ladder prediction this year, and I'll leave it open so people can enter the contest (or revise their predictions) through the season with a per-week penalty the later you act.

Here's how the points work:
--3pts each for correctly picking the spot a team finishes in
--1pt each for being 1 spot off on where a team finishes
--1pt bonus each for the NWSL Shield and Wooden Spoon winners
--3pts bonus for for getting the group of playoff teams correct
--1pt bonus for getting 3/4 of the playoff group
--1pt bonus for making a prediction before first kick and sticking with it
--2pts penalty for each week into the season your last prediction was made ("weeks" begin at kickoff of the first game after the previous Sunday)

You are not required to predict the entire ladder to enter the contest; however, if you predict part of the ladder at one point and then pick the rest of the ladder later, the later date will be the one counted. Feel free to make a prediction now, since you have the opportunity to discuss and revise as the season goes on! To make your predictions official, please include and bold the phrases X - Team Name to show and emphasize your picks. Even if you're just posting a list (i.e. not going in to deep discussion) use that format, please.

As an example, here's my initial prediction (which I'll probably revise before kickoff Saturday):
1 - Seattle Reign
With how strong the team already was and how the little turnover they've seen has only been improvements, I don't see how this team can be beaten often enough to be anything but 1st.
2 - Portland Thorns
#InParsonsWeTrust. Or lament, since he's across the country now. I think he'll be the one to turn this team around from being strong "on paper only" to being strong on the field as well.
3 - Orlando Pride
Going out on a limb here, but Sermanni is smart and he's made a pretty darn good roster down there in Florida. I'm being optimistic, since I could also see them as low as 7th, but I think that'd be more pessimistic than this is optimistic.
4 - FC Kansas City
Andonovski knows what he's doing, but his squad took the biggest offseason hit it's ever seen. Still, there's enough talent there that I think he'll definitely get them into the playoffs again.
5 - Houston Dash
They were certainly looking up last year, but were still several points out of playoff position. Not so this year - the team is maturing and Waldrum is adjusting to the pro game, I think, and while I again think they'll miss the playoffs, it'll be a cruel miss like the logjam in '14.
6 - Chicago Red Stars
A lot of people are thinking Chicago did well last season and are only maturing. I agree about the maturing part, but I don't think that'll help. Why? Well, Chicago rose to 2nd last year on the back of the strongest home field advantage outside of Seattle and a long time span where all teams were going with NT players. Both of those advantages are completely gone this year. Chicago is a solid team, but the more I look at them, I think the reputation they earned last year was inflated. I hope I'm wrong.
7 - Washington Spirit
Another team I'm tumbling, though this time it's only because of the coach. They could be a #3 team, but if they succeed, it'll be because of player talent, not coaching. #Garbagga
8 - Boston Breakers
At this point in the ladder, I'm placing teams low that I could easily see higher, since aside from my picks for #1 and #10, I could see a five-slot span for any of these teams - i.e. Portland could be anywhere from #2 to #6, and Boston could be anywhere from #5 to #9. Boston is low since its average in my prediction (#7) is lower than other averages. Similarly...
9 - Western New York Flash
I could also see WNY going all the way up to 5th with the roster they have. Riley might even fit with this team in a way he couldn't in Portland. However, this is a team in transition. With some stability, I could see them in the playoffs next year. Not this year.
10 - Sky Blue FC
Just two days ago, I would've placed them above Boston and WNY, even with their coaching unknown. But one of their linchpins in defense is now no longer with them, and that combined with a thin midfield and an unknown at forward, I think this will be a painful season for them.

 

I'm going to make one minor modification to the rules to be a bit nicer to people who might only join the contest (or the forums entirely) in midseason. Change this:

to this

I know most of us with ladders up already either didn't account for the 4x's in the schedule (myself included) or are second-guessing themselves after this first week's games, so I will expect some updates in the coming weeks before the 2pt/week penalty gets too strong!

In the meantime, since this thread was made to welcome discussion as well, I'm going to post my current guess for Power Rankings. And if you wish to do the same, please do NOT use the bold formatting I outlined in the Rules post! You don't want me reading your Power Ranking as an official updated ladder prediction, right? =-)

Anyway, my Power Rankings;
1: I think there's no question that HOU gets first spot. They were clearly the most cohesive, dominant team in their game this weekend. They may drop in the future if they burn out or if other teams with stronger rosters start gelling better, but right now it's all about #DashOn
2: Similar to how I hated doing this in my ladder, I have to put POR as number two in my power rankings right now. They clearly weren't gelling that well, but with their talent overall and great play from Heath & Horan, they got the result, and against a very good Pride team at that.
3: Sky Blue comes up as the surprise at my third slot. I haven't watched that game, but even if Seattle was listless and uninspired like was said in the P/I/P thread, anyone who can beat that roster AND break the Memorial undefeated streak has to be doing something right.
4: Even though the Pride lost, they honestly didn't look like an expansion team to me. They arguably gelled even more than Portland did, just had a mishap or two and didn't have anyone put in a stellar performance like H&H. This team will be one to watch.
5/6: I didn't watch the KC/WNY game either, but it sounds like it was a relatively close game. WNY got the win but I'd say KC still has the better roster, so I'm putting both in the middle of the pack for now.
7/8/9/10: Yes, DC won. But I was not impressed. Yes, BOS lost. But after giving up the early goal, they kept the game very even. Then you SEA and CHI who were inexplicably bad despite their rosters. I'm not sure who to rank where down here.

 

NWSL's power rankings for week 1:
http://nwslsoccer.com/2016-nwsl-power-rankings---week-1?sf24604469=1
First obvious thing is that it's divided winners 1-5 and losers 6-10. Second, winners are exactly the same as standings except golden child Portland got first place over Houston. Third, Seattle got sixth - really???