Considering that teams are releasing Fall schedules and games will be played in a short 3 months, it is probably time to retire the 2015 thread on this subject and start a new one for the upcoming year. Let the speculation continue .......
First I think you have to define "Hot Seat." I'm defining it as realistically feeling pressure to show significant progress. Not necessarily meaning win this year and you are gone. But need to take a step to show AD they are headed in the right direction. ACC: Miami, Syracuse, Pitt The ACC is tough and with the new scheduling, who you play can vary greatly. If I understand it correctly, they seeded teams based on previous RPI, so getting out of the cellar is even worse. Big 10: MSU?, Iowa?, Nebraska? I don't think anyone is really feeling too much pressure. Iowa took over a mess. Nebraska won the double a couple of years ago. Seems like that program has struggled to be relevant outside of 1 year. MSU should be better? Don't see any of these as feeling too warm. SEC: Tennessee Bizarre situation. Recruiting has been great but hasn't turned into success. Revolving door of players. Big 12: TCU, ISU I think TCU is the hottest of all the programs not talked about. He has not won despite new coaches around him winning. NCAA or bust for him? Does ISU care? Pac 12: Oregon Was a head scratcher hire that has proved her critics wrong.
I think the idea is you are supposed to have good evidence they will be fired. But apparently other see it differently.
Passive aggressive- the indirect expression of hostility, often due to an obsession to be liked. It seems pretty obvious that a "hot seat" would be due to their feelings of discomfort with their current situation. One could never know what factors inside of a program may exist. Does an athletic's dept care? Is the coach golfing buddies with the AD? Is there a contract? Does that matter? The main factor, that we could openly discuss, would be results, or lack thereof. Miami- 2 years. 0 Conf or NCAA Tourneys, Past year 5-12, 2-8 conf. Inherited an NCAA team Pitt- 4 years, 0 Conf or NCAA Tourneys, Syracuse- 8 years, 0 NCAA tourneys. MSU- 25 years, 3 NCAA tourneys. 1 NCAA tourney win Iowa- 2 years, 0 NCAA tourneys Nebraska- Last 10 years, 1 NCAA tourney Tenn- 4 years 1 NCAA Tourney, 0 NCAA wins TCU- 4 years. 0 NCAA Tourney ISU- 2 years. 0 NCAA Tourneys Oregon- 3 years. 0 NCAA Tourneys Combined they have 97 years and, 5 NCAA Tournaments and 1 NCAA wins. Based on the only metric I could reasonably have based this on not being at the institution, this seems like a reasonable list. for coaches who aren't comfortable in their current situation. Sorry for the stats. I just wanted to give you some more stuff to complain about.
Agree with the post. A lot of college coaches talk about Oregon, Miami and Syracuse and based on results they should all be hot but who knows. Texas should be hot too. I believe Tennessee were brought up previously but I haven't heard people talking about that one and have no connections there. Not sure about Nebraska and Iowa. The Iowa coach is new so I'm guessing issues there. Iowa State has been a mess for years, TCU I thought Eric was a good hire and hope he gets it going but don't know the situation. Of all of them Miami must be the hottest that program has plummeted. I know Louisville was mentioned previously but haven't heard how things are progressing there.
The trouble is that not making the tournament isn't, and never has been, the standard for being on the hot seat. NCAA tournaments in all sports are designed so about 1/6 of all teams make it to the tournament - basically the top two standard deviations. Half of those are automatic bids. The rest follow metrics tied to a standard. In women's soccer, that's RPI. And about a fifth of all teams turn over coaches each year. That's not exclusive of teams that made the tournament. So there is a huge middle ground. All I'm saying is the metric isn't enough. You need to show there is some correlation other than not making the tournament.
You've overestimated things by a fairly large margin. The number is generally between 10-15% (or has been in the past half decade or so). Twenty-nine changes this offseason (barring something crazy happening), which is 8.68%. Fewer changes than normal, since we're usually between 35-40.
For the P5 conference schools (of which I was using) I would wholeheartedly disagree. Your arguments break down pretty much at every level. To lump all 330 D1 schools into the same category is oversimplification at best, or lazy and ignorant at worst. If you are saying that Oregon and Miami are using the same metric as Hampton and Southern, then we can't have a real discussion. I believe there are 64 P5 schools. 2 don't have women's soccer. Less than 10 have not gone to an NCAA tournament under their current coach (2 years minimum.) Or around 15% haven't. It isn't as black and white as simply making the NCAA tournament, but I would say, yes that is a very accurate and fair metric. For the P5 schools I would also argue that about half go every year. We are using a 3-5 years cycle (8 years in the case of Syracuse) I would say being in the top half of the P5 every 3 years is a reasonable standard with all of the money these Universities are now using. Texas Tech, Baylor, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Arkansas, Colorado, Arizona, Indiana have all had varying degrees of success in their 1st handful of years of a new coach. Some of the situations they took over were pretty awful. They used different means to get that success, but they all showed in their own ways that it can be done. I am not saying anyone will or even should get fired. Only based on the information we have (wins and losses) they are probably not feeling comfortable.
If I understand it correctly (and I may not) the groups were selected using recent RPI results. The bottom teams will have the tougher schedule with more regularity since they, themselves are the lowest seeded team in their pod. I do not know how they solved crossover or permanent rival scenarios which would also factor in. Or how often they "re-seeded" teams. But if you had a 7 team pod, and you were the "7 seed" your schedule would be naturally the toughest inter-pod schedule seeing you are you don't play yourself, or by nature of the "seeding" , the easiest game each year. I admittedly do not know much about it, so my logic may be incorrect.
Really surprised about Wellesley. Tony Mohammed is generally well liked in this area and I liked speaking with him on brief occasion. Seemed happy there. Wonder if he left on his own or perhaps took another position there. It's a good job, probably about $55-$60K and wouldn't be surprised if Price got a bit more. Decent living for a D3 coach and comparable to many mid to level D1 jobs. Tough to live in the Boston area just for that so may need to supplement that somehow. But can see why leaving a so so D1 job in Nevada for a good D3 position would be desirable.
As for the positions listed by Devad I would agree Miami is the hottest in the ACC. Louisville seems safe for now, Syracuse won't make a change this year for reasons stated, Wake Forest has fallen dramatically but still not too far off from their glory years, Pitt had a winning season (with a woeful non conference schedule which I think other lower level ACC teams should emulate so not being judgmental on that) and think Santoro at NC State is fine for this year. If Mertz signed a four year contract at Oregon than this would be her last year. Any idea if that is the case? If so would definitely think that seat would be hot. It's a state school so may be able to find the contract length posted somewhere. Other position is Villanova. Would need to see if Kulas is on his last year in his contract there coming up as well. They should be able to win more than two games. If you can win in men's basketball then you should be able to win in women's soccer, especially in an an area as soccer rich as eastern Pennsylvania.
She is a soccer coach with a Ph.D who likely received a faculty teaching position at one of the most heavily endowed universities in the country. Finically I am going to guess she'll be ok.