Figured it's late enough in the season to start this now. Seems like the 6 teams in the East are pretty much set, though Orlando might have inched back into the picture after last night's big win vs. SKC. 1. RBNY 45 pts, 8 GR 2. DC 45 pts, 5 GR 3. CLB 44 pts, 5 GR 4. NE 43 pts, 6 GR 5. TOR 37 pts, 7 GR 6. MTL 32 pts, 9 GR 7. ORL 32 pts, 5 GR Remaining schedules: RBNY: @ NE, @ POR, v. ORL, v. CLB, v. MTL, @ TFC, v. PHI, @ CHI DC: v. CLB, @ MTL, v. NYC, v. CHI, @ CLB (also 2 CCL games over the next 2 weeks) CLB: @ DC, v. POR, @ RBNY, @ TFC, v. DC NE: v. RBNY, @ MTL, v. PHI, @ CHI, v. MTL, @ NYC TOR: @ NYC, v. COL, v. CHI, v. PHI, v. RBNY, v. CLB, @ MTL MTL: @ SJ, v. NE, v. CHI, v. DC, @ ORL, @ RBNY, @ COL, @ NE, v. TOR ORL: @ CHI, @ RBNY, v. MTL, v. NYC, @ PHI Columbus appears to have the toughest schedule remaining just based on opponents (all playoff teams), while the Revs appear to have the easiest. Montreal has a pretty congested schedule to close out (a bunch of midweek games, and their game against Colorado is the only one during the international break). Toronto has 5 home games in their final 7. Based on schedules, it really seems like the Revs have a solid opportunity to gain ground on the rest of the conference before the season ends. At this point, they should be shooting for the #2 and the bye.
#2 and the Bye. Yes. Possibly a #5 overall so we have a chance to host the final instead of knowing we have to go West if we reach the finals.
I also think home games are very important, since I think the MLS average is over 60% of the wins come from the home team. If the Revs can beat NYRB on Wednesday, they have a shot at #1 otherwise, I agree #2 is their ceiling. What teams would the Revs have a hard time playing against? The Revs already have a loss against NYRB, DC, and Columbus, and those are the only team that worry me.
Kai Kamari in Columbus is the only team that matches up against us well. New York is playing hot on a shoe string budget but they have a tough schedule IMHO to finish out the season. yes alot of the games are at home... but they play the West and we are done with the west.
The huge result yesterday seems to raise the stakes for Wednesday even higher: - A win vaults us right into 1st in the east - and then we'd have to keep winning (do-able) while NYRB squanders some point from their extra games. - A tie brings us even with Cbus and inching closer to DC and #2. - A loss would suck so bad I don't want to think about it. Not good.
NE: v. RBNY, @ MTL, v. PHI, @ CHI, v. MTL, @ NYC my prediction. loss to RB, Tie montreal, Wins against Philly, chitown, mtl at home and tie NYC on the road 11 pts.
Second place is ours for the taking. I really hope we can get all 3 from the MetroFilth, but if not, it looks like they will likely win the division. DC are toast, and Cow-lumbus has a tougher schedule than us, so this is definitely possible. We need to beat the teams we should (including the sugar, taurine and acetonitrile water drinkers), but I see most every game from here on being a dogfight. The throwrugs at the bottom of the table still think they have a shot at the 6th spot, so they won't be pushovers.
Speaking of the motivation for some of the bottom feeders on our schedule, our final game against Philly comes 4 days before their USOC Final matchup against SKC on September 30th. Considering where they are in the playoff race, it wouldn't be surprising to see them rest some key starters against us as the USOC seems to be their only shot at salvaging their season.
After beating Toronto and RedBulls we are in a strong position to finish one or two in the East and have an outside shot at the Shield. One game at a time guys---win out
The Revs have the easiest only because they don't have to travel and have fewer games left to play in the same amount of time. Otherwise, RB should pick up points in most of their remaining games given most are at home. I expect them to beat Orlando, Mtl, Cbus and Philly at home and most likely win @ TFC given they've kind of imploded. They may drop points in Chicago (they usually lose there) and Portland (they can't seem to deal with turf very well) which could be the revs' best opportunities. DC also has a favorable schedule but have the CCL games mixed in so that makes it tougher. The revs on the other hand have to go to Chicago where they never do well and @ NYC in the final game of the year to face Mullins (oh yeah and some guys named Lampard and Pirlo). It should be an exciting race to the finish!
Great win last night, really enjoyed the game. For the moment, being in 1st is nice, and if they do win out they just may finish 1st in the east and possibly lift the shield. All that said...just imagine if they had won even just one or two of the games they lost during the swoon.
Below are the stats for finishing at seed overall and for the supporters shield. I am guessing probably 4-0-1 TBH. I don't think we win in Montreal. Other games should be pretty easy the rest of the way. We have Philly, Montreal at home. Montreal, Chicago, and NYCFC on the Road. And in the East: I think it is safe to say that if we can manage 7 more points we are at the worst.... finishing in 4th and will host at least one playoff game.
Update after last night's games 1. NE 46 pts, 5 GR 2. RBNY 45 pts, 7 GR 3. DC 45 pts, 5 GR 4. CLB 44 pts, 5 GR 5. TOR 37 pts, 6 GR 6. MTL 33 pts, 8 GR 7. ORL 32 pts, 5 GR Remaining schedules: RBNY: @ POR, v. ORL, v. CLB, v. MTL, @ TFC, v. PHI, @ CHI DC: v. CLB, @ MTL, v. NYC, v. CHI, @ CLB (also 2 CCL games over the next 2 weeks) CLB: @ DC, v. POR, @ RBNY, @ TFC, v. DC NE: @ MTL, v. PHI, @ CHI, v. MTL, @ NYC TOR: v. COL, v. CHI, v. PHI, v. RBNY, v. CLB, @ MTL MTL: v. NE, v. CHI, v. DC, @ ORL, @ RBNY, @ COL, @ NE, v. TOR ORL: @ CHI, @ RBNY, v. MTL, v. NYC, @ PHI Revs move to first after last night's win and now face a Montreal team traveling cross continent from San Jose on the road. All of their remaining games come against teams in the bottom 5 of the league in points (Montreal has fewer points than all 10 Western teams!). Red Bulls now have to travel across the country on short rest to play in one of the toughest environments in the league on Sunday. Portland is 6th in the West and probably need the win more than the Red Bulls with San Jose on their tails and an opportunity to get a home field matchup in the knockout rounds. They will be fully rested, and they are 7-1-6 at home this season. With Columbus and DC facing off as well, this weekend could be a solid opportunity for the Revs to gain even more ground on their Eastern competitors. With another Toronto loss, it seems like the Top 4 in the East have started to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. I believe the Revs, Red Bulls, and DC can all clinch a playoff spot with a win or a draw/loss by both ORL and NYC. And Columbus needs a win plus an Orlando draw/loss or a draw plus an Orlando loss to clinch.
It was really nice walking out of the match last night to see exactly this table on the big screen at CBS Scene!
- I think it's unlikely that the Revs can finish first, mainly because it means the RBs would have to squander 5 of the potential 6 points from their games in hand, with not that challenging a schedule overall. - it will really come down to who can maintain their recent pace. For either us or RB to do it would be pretty exceptional in this league, where teams rarely have a top run of form for more than 7-8 games. - even with 1st place and the challenge of RB a stiff one, it's good to remember that DC and Cbus are right behind us - one slip and we can tumble just as fast as we jumped last night. - one point made in the NY/NJ media about last night is that the Revs rested a number of players and still got the result. RB has a more congested schedule from here and didn't rest key players, so they have to regroup physically and mentally after a tough, bruising loss. - Heaps had faith that he could get the results while going to his bench and in Montreal he'll be rewarded for it with some fresher players. Whether he can or will get some rest for some other keys (the centerbacks, Nguyen, Caldwell, Fagundez and Shuttleworth) will be interesting to watch.
The Montreal game was a bit of a reality check. The streak was not going to last forever, and it was a matter of time before we had a bad game. Just like the Toronto game where the score made us look better than we were, this one evened it out. I was disappointed that the Red Bulls won in Portland, as I thought that would be a good place to see them drop points. Then again, losing midweek to us did not make them happy, so they were definitely up for it. Looking at the remaining schedule, for argument’s sake, let’s assume everyone wins whatever home games they have left with non-playoff teams, and split the remaining points with the teams currently in the playoffs. The projected finish would be this (Current points and remaining games in parentheses) NYRB—60 (48p, 6 Gr) NE—55 (46p, 4 Gr) DC—54 (45p, 4 Gr, plus CCL @ Jamaica) Columbus—53 (47p, 4 Gr) Toronto—51 (40p, 5 Gr) Montreal—48 (36p, 7Gr) Now I can see DC dropping more points, due to their midweek CCL, and Columbus has a tough schedule (Portland H and @ 3 contenders). We’ve got it pretty good, with @chicago and home to Montreal, Philly and NYC, which are all winnable games. RB have 4 home games left (Orlando, Cowbus, Montreal, Philly) and @ Chicago and Toronto, so I can’t see them dropping a lot of points the rest of the way. That was why I was disappointed they won in Portland. At the end of the day, second place is ours for the taking, as long as we win the games we “should.” First place is possible, but we will need some unexpected help from teams below us for that to happen. The wildcard of course, is all the head-to-head games between the playoff contenders. Some really good matchups every week!
Based on Portland's performance at home vs. RB, I don't think they project as a great challenge on the road in Columbus.
I wasn't going on a game-by-game prediction, but I figure that any team who is currently above the red line should not be a gimme for anyone. Just to make it simple, I split the points where if you've got 4 games left, one at home vs a bad team (+3) and 3 against contenders (2 home 1 away), I rounded it up to 9 points (extra home game) from the 3, for 8 points total. Obviously who wins the head-to-head games will ripple through the other teams' results. Of course, as we go along, some teams will emerge in better form, but as a rough guess, it seems reasonable.
Updating this... The chance we miss the playoffs old seems to be possible if they lose all 4, or lose 3 and tie 1