This topic has been kicked around on some of the individual college threads as well as recruiting threads. Time to give it its own thread as it will be a topic of discussion involving various college players and implications for their teams until next December at this time. What college players ill be ignoring the call to play for the U20s, and what college players will be red-shirting for next fall to play in Papua New Guinea with serious implications for some teams.
To start off the discussion, we can note that 12 of the 20 players in Honduras for the CONCACAF qualifying round are still in high school. Which current college freshman or sophomores will be replacing some (or most) of them over the course of this next year? There are are a host of outstanding Freshmen this year who already have significant experience on us Youth National Teams and should be candidates for the U-20 team. Names that come to mind are Duke's Schuyler DeBree, Taylor Racioppi, and Kayla McCoy, Penn State's Ellie Jean, Kaleigh Riehl, and Emily Ogle, Florida State's Casey Tillman, Stanford's Alana Cook and Jordan DiBiasi, UNC's Megan Buckingham, (UNC teammate Jessie Scarpa is presently on the team in Honduras), and Virginia's Morgan Stearns. I believe that all of these eligible players have had experience with the US U-20s. Some of them are shoe-ins such as Racioppi who got significant playing time on the last cycle of the U-20s, or Penn State's Kaleigh Riehl who capped against France or perhaps teammate Ellie Jean who was the captain of the U-17 national team before joining the U20s at camps. My apologies to the many age eligible names that don't come to mind at the moment, but who are now in college with U-20 experience under their belts. The present U-20 team now playing in Honduras (and drew 2-2 with Mexico yesterday) consist of the following players, Which ones will yield to college players? Present Class, Name, College (enrolled or committed) Bold = presently starting in Honduras * = Subbed in to Mexico game HS Junior, Emily Fox, UNC HS Junior, Ashley Sanchez, UCLA HS Junior, Kiara Pickett, Stanford HS Senior, Marly Canales, UCLA HS Senior, Tierna Davidson, Stanford HS Senior, Savannah DeMelo, Southern California HS Senior, *Jordan Harr, Texas Tech HS Senior, Brooke Heinsohn, Duke HS Senior, Taylor Otto, UNC HS Senior, Mallory Pugh, UCLA HS Senior, Zoe Redei, UNC HS Senior, *Ella Stevens, Duke College Freshman, Rose Chandler, Penn St. College Freshman, Mikaela Harvey, TAMU College Freshman, Kelcie Hedge, Washington College Freshman, Natalie Jacobs, Notre Dame College Freshman, Parker Roberts, Kansas College Sophomore, Sabrina Flores, Notre Dame College Sophomore, Shannon Horgan, Clemson College Sophomore, *Jessie Scarpa, UNC
Will this also affect Notre Dame's Monica Flores (Mexico U20 team)? She is the twin sister of Sabrina but she plays for Mexico. What about other ND international players such as Karin Muya of England and the 2016 freshman defender from Canada? ND could be in for its worst season in a long time.
Yes, potentially all you list could be effected. However, this whole process will take at least until August to start to be clearer, and until late October or early November before things are finalized and the international rosters have to be submitted. We will just not know much until these dates. Rest assured that Romagnolo will be working on this issue all spring and summer preparing the best she can. I say August because I imagine that some of the players will make decisions then as to whether they want to be on the U-20 team or not. It is a great privilege to represent your country, but there will be compromises and they, their families, and their college coaches are going to have to help them through this process. As we said on the other thread, they will be in a position to commit themselves to as much as they can handle in terms of academics, college soccer and U-20 camps and friendlies leading up to traveling to Papua New Guinea in early in Late October or November for the tournament. (which will last until early December.) On any case, I doubt that the perfect storm for ND that you are fearing will happen. First check the birth dates of the players. Sometimes internationals are older than US players of the same playing status. To be eligible for the 2016 U-20 tournament, their birthdays will have to be on or after January 1, 2016.
Now that the U20 WNT has won CONCACAF Championship and qualified for the 2016 U20 WWC, it will be interesting to see how many current college players get called-up for camps between now and early summer 2016. Having watched all of the US's U20 games during the qualifying event, IMO, it is clear that only 8 (at most) of the qualifying roster should be on the final roster, if the US is to have a chance of going far at the U20 WWC.
So.... The U20 Women's Wold Cup qualifying at CONCACAF is now finished. The USA, Canada, and Mexico will all be going to Papua New Guinea next November. There will be 10 months to massage the roster to get the best team to represent the US. As noted above, there is no dearth of college players who opted not to play in the qualifying down in Honduras these past two weeks. What will prove very interesting is watching how decisions will be made this spring and summer. Will there be any current eligible college players players who will simply shun the opportunity to be on the U20 Team USA in favor of their college seasons? How many on the CONCACAF qualifying team this past week will be on the World Cup team? I'll venture some guesses... but first some stats and conclusions. Looking at the numbers for the CONCACAF tournament finished up today, we can see the pattern of player movement and playing time. Minutes Played by the 20 players on the roster 450 Chandler 450 Jacobs 436 Davidson 431 DeMelo 405 Fox 387 Scarpa 386 Pugh 386 Sanchez 335 Roberts 315 Harvey 270 Otto 194 Flores 157 Canales 153 Stevens 76 Hedge 70 Harr 63 Redei 45 Horgan 32 Pickett 0 Heinsohn The top 12 players can be counted as the starters. Flores started the first three games at defense, but then was injured 14 minutes into the third game and did not play again. Otto did not play the first two games, but started the third game on the back line, and with Flores out played every minute subsequently. So the 4-player back line was set. Jacobs in a center role player every minute of the tournament with Davidson also getting essentially every minute as an outside back. Flores started in the middle, but her replacement Otto finished up on the outside. And Fox moved from the outside to the middle next to Jacobs for the championship match. As generally expected, these defensive players had the most minutes of all the field players. Chandler was obviously the first choice as keeper and Heinsohn never saw any action (but this is normal for national team back-up keepers.) DeMelo played the most minutes of any midfielder, followed by Roberts and Harvey, the other two nominal starters. Canales started the first game (when they played 4 midfielders), but then saw little playing time for the remainder of the tournament as the coaching staff then went with three (nominal) forwards. Stevens was the only other midfielder getting significant time with 153 minutes for the tournament. The first game started off with two forwards (Sanchez and Pugh.) But then the coaching staff clearly wanted to include Scarpa, and went with that threesome for the remainder of the tournament . (Scarpa responded with 5 goals.) I will assume that all of the players on the current (qualifying) team will want to go to the U10 World Cup. However, from looking at the starters and subs, I think that the coaching staff would be looking to bring about 5 top college players on to the team, and end up removing 5 on the current roster. Reading the tea leaves at the bottom of the CONCACAF cup, at this present time, the players who may not be on the travel squad next fall will likely be: Pickett, Horgan, Redei, Harr, and Hedge. This will leave room for 5 of the top college players who are age eligible. But I would not be surprised of more of the qualifying squad also is replaced, including some of the starters. For instance, I am not sure about how Taylor Otto will stack up against the potentially available players now in college. Or Fox who apparently really impressed the staff, but is relatively untested. And in my view, Canales, Flores, and Stevens are also vulnerable. And Scarpa may face some stiff competition, as might Harvey. I can see up to half of this qualifying team being replaced. But nothing is cast in stone. The players currently at the bottom of the pecking order for this tournament, may blossom over the next few months while some others who got the lion's share of PT at this tournament may fade. And it is yet unfathomable as to the exact skill sets which will be brought by the top players yet in college and how they would compliment those on the qualifying squad. Who knows! We'll likely only know at the end of the summer (if not even later than that.)
I'd guess that the most turn-over will be on the back line. The US started the qualifying event with a single DM sitting in front of the center backs and, to put it mildly, it didn't work. For the rest of the games, the US played with 2 D-mids. That worked fine against this level of competition, but having 6 of the 10 field players on defense does not seem like a situation this coaching staff favors. For example, in the last cycle, Coach French started 5 forwards on occasion and, I believe, never fewer than 4! So, IMO, improving the defensive line to the point where only a single D-mid is necessary would seem like priority number 1. Excellent options exist in the college ranks, but the great unknown is how many of those players will want to be part of the 2016 U20 WWC.
Good post Hooked.... (While I was busy composing, you summed it up succinctly and made your post!) It always baffles me that others can watch games. Clue me in. I only see the highlight videos posted by CONCACAF. Where are the full games available? I see today that CONCACAF has posted the "Best 11" from the tournament (as selected by their "Technical Committee".) The US got 8 of the 11 positions. 5 of those 8 were high school students. Hmm. Gotta love the gold plated soccer boot trophy awarded to Mallory Pugh. It looks like a size 13 man's boot replete with old fashioned screw in studs. With Pugh holding this outsized trophy like a stuffed fish, one wonders if next time the tournament committee can plate a smaller and modern women's shoe?
FoxSoccer2Go (a streaming internet pay site) had all the games, including the non-US ones. I signed-up for a month and watched lots of the games at the event. Picture quality was excellent, but you got no commentary, just general audio. That site may have the games available on demand for awhile. Broadcast channel FoxSports2 showed some games, but as a Comcast customer I don't get that channel.
I would have picked some different players, but one can make a case for all that were chosen. I was glad that they did pick the 3 that I felt were the best on the US: Scarpa, Sanchez, and DeMelo. For me, the most valuable player at the event for the US was Scarpa. Not as fast or flashy as the other US attacking players, but gave the US attack solid, smart, efficient play for the others to rely on. One would hope there's a place for a player like that on the final roster.
For the games I watched, I thought Harvey was the best player, except she looked a little gassed in the championship game. I thought Sanchez was next. But then, I'm most interested in players who supply the attackers rather than the attackers themselves.
For what it is worth, a number of players on the elite eight rosters turned down spots on the qualifying roster. It is likely they are higher up on the roster than some of those who saw limited minutes last week.
Until they commit to playing on the team, they don't exist for u20 purposes. Then everyone will be be puzzled why they aren't fast tracked onto the full team.
These are all people who have had previous time with the team. Pretty clear they will commit fully in the fall. Expect several to take redshirt years.
For the two games I watched, I thought M Harvey was almost non- existent. Barely touched the ball. Outside backs busting up the wings and passing it (or aiming it in the general direction of) to the forward three made an attacking mid almost useless. Not a criticism of Harvey; more on the US scheme in general. They win with regularity, but it is not the first WNT (at any age group) to play in that manner, meaning more direct in nature as opposed to a build up Just my opinion, that's all.
The roster named for the January U17 camp seems to have implications for the U20 team going forward this year. Specifically, Ashley Sanchez, who was a full time starter for the U20 CONCACAF Champions is not appearing on the U17 roster. This would imply that she (or the coaching staff) has decided not to ply U20. The other high School Junior on the U20 team (Emily Fox) is too old for the U17 squad. In any case, does this news imply the influx of college players we have been expecting displacing many of the high school players many of whom started last month?
Could also mean that (a) she's only going to do u20 camps or (b) she wants/needs to spend less time away from high school for the rest of this school year. Bottom line: I have no idea what it means.
AAGH.. Late Nite Typo stikes again...I meant to say that "Ashley Sanchez, who was a full time starter for the U20 CONCACAF Champions is now appearing on the U17 roster." ("now" not "not"!!) So still not knowing what it implies, her smiling face is looking out from the U17 January camp roster on the US Soccer site. (One graduates from the U20s to the U17s?)
The initial U20 camp for 2016 has been announced and most of the high school age players are missing from the camp roster. Only 4 HS players are left, and they may be dropped in the next several months pending on how they show against the various college players coming through the camps. In looking at the college players invited, the plan for moving forward may be coming clear. It appears that wide casting of the net is now taking place among the college ranks. I suspect that we will see maybe four months or more of different players shifting in and out of the camps as the staff looks at both individual player strengths and weaknesses and at various combinations which may fit the strategy. In any case, by July (7 months of experimenting) the die should be cast and the field will be greatly narrowed. Certainly by the beginning of August one would want to have settled on the provisional roster or 35 (4 keepers) which is due into FIFA well in advance. (Date not announced yet.) On November 14 (ten days before the tournament begins) the final roster is due. All 21 names on the final roster must come from the provisional roster of 35 and must include 3 keepers. I think that the U20 coaching staff is assuming that they will be set by the end of July so that the girls who will not be playing on the U20 Team USA will know in time so as to commit themselves to their college seasons which will be starting in early August. The timing of the U20 tournament (which essentially overlaps with the NCAA tournament) is a shame for American college soccer (as if the rest of the world gives a hoot.) The whole equation used to be far easier when the trounament was usually always in the late summer or early fall (late September or early October.)
U20 WNT Roster for the January 2016 camp: GOALKEEPERS (3): Rose Chandler (Penn State; Atlanta, Ga.), Brooke Heinsohn (New England FC; Norfolk; Mass.), Casey Murphy (Rutgers; Bridgewater, N.J.) DEFENDERS (9): Julia Ashley (North Carolina; Verona, N.J.), Alana Cook (Stanford; Far Hills, N.J.), Maddie Elliston (Penn State; Omaha, Neb.), Emily Fox (FC Virginia; Ashburn, Va.), Shannon Horgan (Clemson; Long Beach, N.Y.), Natalie Jacobs (Notre Dame; Coto de Caza, Calif.), Taylor Otto (CASL; Apex, N.C.), Kaleigh Riehl (Penn State; Fairfax Station, Va.), Alex Thomas (Louisiana State; New Orleans, La.) MIDFIELDERS (9): Savannah Demelo (Beach FC; Bellflower, Calif.), Jordan Dibiasi (Stanford; Littleton, Colo.), Kelcie Hedge (Washington; Post Falls, Idaho), Emily Ogle (Penn State; Strongsville, Ohio), Courtney Petersen (Virginia; Canton, Mich.), Mayra Pelayo (Florida; West Palm Beach; Fla.), Haley Pounds (Texas A&M; Spring, Texas), Parker Roberts (Kansas; Leawood, Kansas), Shannon Simon (Washington; Torrance, Calif.) FORWARDS (5): Mimi Asom (Princeton; Fairview, Texas), Cecelia Kizer (Mississippi; Overland Park, Kan.), Taylor Racioppi (Duke; Ocean Township, N.J.), Jessie Scarpa (North Carolina; Lakeland, Fla.), Ally Watt (Texas A&M; Colorado Springs, Colo.)
Yes, a lot of new faces (at the U20 level; many of these names are well know for other YNT experience) in this camp. Specifically, for the January 2016 camp, here are the number of prior U20 camps/events in this cycle (which stared a year ago and for which the maximum number for non-keeper college players is 8) that each player has attended (including this one): GOALKEEPERS: 7 - Casey Murphy (Rutgers) 5 -Rose Chandler (Penn State) 2- Brooke Heinsohn (New England FC) DEFENDERS: 8 - Natalie Jacobs (Notre Dame) 7 - Kaleigh Riehl (Penn State) 5 - Maddie Elliston (Penn State) 3 - Emily Fox (FC Virginia) 2 - Shannon Horgan (Clemson) 2 - Taylor Otto (CASL) 1 - Julia Ashley (North Carolina) 1 - Alana Cook (Stanford) 1 - Alex Thomas (LSU) MIDFIELDERS: 7 - Savannah Demelo (Beach FC) 7 - Emily Ogle (Penn State) 6 - Parker Roberts (Kansas) 6 - Courtney Petersen (Virginia) 4 - Kelcie Hedge (Washington) 1 - Jordan Dibiasi (Stanford) 1 - Mayra Pelayo (Florida) 1 - Haley Pounds (Texas A&M) 1 - Shannon Simon (Washington) FORWARDS: 7 - Taylor Racioppi (Duke) 7 - Jessie Scarpa (North Carolina) 4 - Ally Watt (Texas A&M) 1 - Mimi Asom (Princeton) 1 - Cecelia Kizer (Mississippi)
The March 2016 La Manga event seemed more like wide-spread experimentation that fine-tuning the squad, which seems appropriate this far out. For example, Scarpa (a successful forward in earlier events) played 45 minutes in game 1 at left flank-mid in a 4-4-2 and 45 minutes in game 2 at right flank-mid in a 4-5-1. For me, that was all about seeing if the player could be a back-up option in those positions. IMO, the answer was a resounding "no." Nonetheless, I'd still play her at forward. For another example, Demelo (normally a successful midfield player in earlier events) played 45 minutes in game 1 at right forward in a 4-4-2. Again, IMO, not a success, but she will still likely make the roster at midfield. I expect we'll see more college players brought into future camps because there are still some problems with the roster. While the primary issue (center-back) seems to have be solved by Stanford's Cook, outside back, flank-mid, and keeper remain unsettled positions, IMO.
Are we far enough along in the U20 preparations to get a better sense of who/how many college players will be gone for the NCAAs this fall? FWIW, the latest roster (now in camp) features 5 players from PSU, and 2 each from UNC, Notre Dame, UCLA, and Tennessee. With the possible exception of Tennessee (who may not yet be looking at the final four anyway...next year?) if this roster holds, these schools will be seriously compromised in the NCAA tournament. (In case anyone has forgotten, the tournament in Papua, New Guinea coincides with the NCAA tournament. It starts on November 14th and ends on December 3rd thereby neatly wiping out the entire NCAA tournament (and probably the conference tournaments too) with travel plus a week or two of U20 final prep beforehand. I can't help but think that especially PSU, but also UCLA, Notre Dame, and UNC's post seasons will be very different than they might have been without 5 or 2 of their top players. (And yes, I am counting Mallory Pugh and Marley Canales as the two from UCLA.) It is interesting that with all its talent, Stanford has not been represented on the last several U20 rosters. (Although 6 on their roster have had U20 experience earlier (Tierna Davidson, Alana Cook, Jordan DiBiasi, Tegan McGrady, Michelle Xaio, and most notably Andi Sullivan.) Can anyone confirm or debunk the rumor that this is not by coincidence? Duke's talent is also missing from the latest roster (they have 3 players with U-20 experience, most notably Taylor Racioppi, but I expect her to get back on the roster) plus Imani Dorsey who traveled with the U18s to Europe two years ago but does not seem to even have garnered a look this year at the U20 level.) I surely have missed other situations like these, but the U20 WWC schedule is seriously disruptive this year for a bunch of college teams. (Understatement!)
The Stanford players chose to take themselves out of consideration due to the redshirt requirement. With regard to the UCLA players. I really like your balanced approach and analysis so I am saying this with all due respect, Pugh will 95% likely not be playing in the U20 WWC and I know 100% that her and Canales will not be redshirting. Whether they are getting an exemption or not I am unsure of but my source of information is bullet proof. Pugh is on this roster in order to get her fitness back prior to the Olympics. She will be playing with her club team in Oceanside this week and then will be going to the next pre- Olympic camp. She will be reporting to UCLA immediately following the Olympics as will Jessie Fleming from Canada. Canales will likely make the team and this is her last opportunity as she is a '97 birth year and is ineligible for the 2018 U20 WWC (unlike Pugh) which might mean that she misses the tournament. However I have it from a source that is 100% reliable that she will not be redshirting. As a matter of fact she will be back from U20 camp on Thursday and will be moving in to the dorms on Friday for summer school with all of the other freshman except Pugh and Fleming. Your analysis of the UCLA freshman class is pretty accurate but it is hard to capture the expectations that this class has from the staff and the quality that it brings in all of the lines. There are 3 forwards the least heralded of which was the second leading scorer in spring. 3 midfielders of which the most unheralded is a player that came up playing in the Japanese youth system and is probably the most technically gifted in the class. And finally 2 defenders and a keeper. Pugh is obviously going to be in contention for the Hermann trophy (she will likely only miss the opener against SDSU and the scrimmage against BYU) and there will be at least 4 other starters besides her that come from this class. They are all up training at 7am with the players that stayed for summer school including the team captains and I have been told the field and weight workouts have been pretty intense. UCLA will be in contention with Stanford for the Pac 12 title and I would say Stanford has to be the favorite to win it all considering what Penn St. will be missing. I give Stanford a slight edge over Duke. I appreciate all of your work and look forward to seeing your Tarheels when they come to town to play the Bruins on the 9th of September in Westwood. That game is a week after they take on Penn St in Westwood so they should have a lot figured out by then and should give UNC a good game.
saw the U20 scrimmage in NC. Pugh with 4 goals obviously stood out, the 5th goal was a garbage goal from not clearing a corner. Without Pugh the game could have been 0-0. There was a huge lack of creativity outside of Pugh's game. But even as amazing as Pugh is, financially she's better off going to med school than playing professional soccer. I have no idea why someone like scarpa would red shirt, and the Stanford players are doing the right thing IMHO. It seems nuts to ask kids to redshirt when there is no decent paying professional route down the line. Did anyone ever clarify are the U20s being asked not to go to school? What happens if one of the U20s permanently injures herself with USNT, who pays for the rest of their schooling? Seems like asking U20s to skip school is a bridge too far for women's soccer. And how do the finances work if one of the scholarship players, isn't playing for the school? Seems UNC got in trouble academically precisely for paper classes to allow athletes to physically not be at school.