2012 MLS Magic and Tragic Numbers

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by aletheist, Sep 3, 2012.

  1. aletheist

    aletheist Member

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right, which is why they have no magic number--they cannot clinch a playoff spot; at best they can end up tied for one--and a tragic number of one--dropping a single point is enough to disqualify them.
     
  2. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Nice analogy... ":alien:"
     
  3. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    So should I plan around a playoff schedule?
     
  4. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    This day becomes earlier and earlier every year that we are unable to qualify.
     
  5. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Have observed some similarities between season 2012 and 2005, based on the weekly playoff ranking thread:

     
  6. aletheist

    aletheist Member

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are the updated numbers, taking into account tonight's results and the fact that CLB @ DCU and CHV @ VAN are on the remaining schedule, which lowers the bar for those four teams and the ones ahead of them to clinch a playoff spot. Corrections are always welcome.
    Code:
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SKC   50    7   71   11   31   25
      2   NYR   46    7   67   15   27   29
      3   CHI   44    8   68   17   28   31
      4   HOU   42    7   63   19   23   33
      5   CLB   42    7   63   19   23   33
      6   DCU   41    7   62   21   21   34
      7   MON   39    5   54   25   13   36
      8   NER   28    6   46   36    5   --
      9   PHL   26    9   53   38   12   --
     10   TOR   21    7   42   --    1   --
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   MN   TN   SS
      1   SJE   53    7   74    1   42   19
      2   RSL   46    6   64    8   32   29
      3   SEA   44    8   68   10   36   31
      4   LAG   43    6   61   11   29   32
      5   VAN   37    6   55   17   23   38
      6   FCD   33    5   48   23   12   --
      7   COL   29    6   47   27   11   --
      8   CHV   28    9   55   26   19   47
      9   POR   27    7   48   27   12   --
    
     
  7. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
  8. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    LA hasn't swept the series against Vancouver, they had 2 wins and a draw (2-2 in Vancouver).
     
    henryo repped this.
  9. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Right, they won the season series, but didn't sweep it... Good catch.
     
  10. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    In Toronto, we have noticed a glaring similarity between 2005 and 2012.....in neither year, as September gets rolling, do we have a chance of making the playoffs. Of course, in 2005 there was good reason...but the similarity exists nonetheless.
     
    scheck and edwardgr repped this.
  11. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Alirght, so a Houston draw/win tonight eliminates us on Sept 6. Could this possibly be the earliest MLS elimination ever?
     
  12. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    By calendar date, certainly not, since some seasons ended around Sept. 6. By games remaining, I dunno.
     
  13. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Everybody has to lead at something....cut us some slack and say "yep...that is a record!"
     
  14. bgix

    bgix Bad Penny

    Jun 29, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think that this is true. If Columbus loses out, and Toronto wins out, you would still be tied for 5th, and it goes to tie-breakers, all of which are up in the air now.

    Toronto is eliminated if they drop any points OR (Columbus gains any points AND Houston gains any points).

    On the 50-50 scale, you can't be eliminated tonight, but have a 67% chance of elimination by end of day on the 12th, and a 95% chance of being eliminated by end of day on the 15th.

    Methodology: Toronto has 2 matches, with 9 possible outcomes (3^2) with only one non-elimination result so 89% chance of elimination based on own results.

    Dynamo cannot eliminate by themselves, but have 2 matches. Crew cannot eliminate them by themselves, but have 1 match.

    Dynamo have an 89% chance of picking up at least one point.
    Columbus have a 67% chance of picking up at least one point.
    Combined, they have .67 * .89 or 59% chance of *both* picking up at least a point and eliminating Toronto.

    So to invert the numbers, Toronto has 11% * 41% chance of surviving to the end of the 5 matches, or 4.5% survival chance, or 95.5% elimination chance through the games on Sept 15.


    Further:
    If Dynamo pick up a point tonight, chances of survival drop to 11 * 33 = 3.7% through the 15th

    and if Dynamo lose tonight, chances of survival through the 15th climb to 6.2% (11 * 55.5)
     
  15. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Now we have headaches to go with our bad record....can't you just take us out back and shoot us?
     
    AndyMead repped this.
  16. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    TFC wasn't around in 2005... You meant 2007? :)
     
  17. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    No, i meant 2005....but you did catch on to the "good reason" we were eliminated at this point in 2005....now, if someone can explain 2012, there are people here interested!
     
  18. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada

    If Houston gets a point tonight, TFC can't catch them. That means at least four teams we can't catch (New York, KC, CHI, and HOU). Since, either DCU or CLB must finish above 42 points (as they play each other later on this season), one of them is uncatchable. That makes five.
     
  19. bgix

    bgix Bad Penny

    Jun 29, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Touche.

    So Toronto has a 66.7% chance of elimination tonight, 88.9% by the end of day on the 12th, and 98.8% by end of day the 15th, since it doesn't matter what the crew do. It is strictly between Toronto and the Dynamo between now and the end of the season.
     
  20. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Your team has more commonality with a steaming pile of moose poo than it has with a winning soccer team?
     
  21. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    So, what you are saying is that it looks the same from the outside as it does from here? Was hoping for some outside observation that would offer greater insight...but thanks for trying!
     
  22. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Turns out, it wasn't Mo Johnston after all.
     
  23. TOareaFan

    TOareaFan Member+

    Jun 19, 2008
    Greater Toronto Area
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    A fairly significant portion of our support would still disagree.
     
  24. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Get in line behind Celtic. :)
     

Share This Page