Right, which is why they have no magic number--they cannot clinch a playoff spot; at best they can end up tied for one--and a tragic number of one--dropping a single point is enough to disqualify them.
Have observed some similarities between season 2012 and 2005, based on the weekly playoff ranking thread:
Here are the updated numbers, taking into account tonight's results and the fact that CLB @ DCU and CHV @ VAN are on the remaining schedule, which lowers the bar for those four teams and the ones ahead of them to clinch a playoff spot. Corrections are always welcome. Code: EASTERN CONFERENCE Rank Team Pts GR MP MN TN SS 1 SKC 50 7 71 11 31 25 2 NYR 46 7 67 15 27 29 3 CHI 44 8 68 17 28 31 4 HOU 42 7 63 19 23 33 5 CLB 42 7 63 19 23 33 6 DCU 41 7 62 21 21 34 7 MON 39 5 54 25 13 36 8 NER 28 6 46 36 5 -- 9 PHL 26 9 53 38 12 -- 10 TOR 21 7 42 -- 1 -- WESTERN CONFERENCE Rank Team Pts GR MP MN TN SS 1 SJE 53 7 74 1 42 19 2 RSL 46 6 64 8 32 29 3 SEA 44 8 68 10 36 31 4 LAG 43 6 61 11 29 32 5 VAN 37 6 55 17 23 38 6 FCD 33 5 48 23 12 -- 7 COL 29 6 47 27 11 -- 8 CHV 28 9 55 26 19 47 9 POR 27 7 48 27 12 --
Based on the odds at the interesting SportsClubStats: Vancouver is >90% certain to make playoff with >44 points. On the other hand, for their Eastern Counterparts: Montreal only has 29% chance with 51 points. D.C. United, Columbus Crew & Houston Dynamo each has about 60% chance with 51 points (depending on combination of results).
In Toronto, we have noticed a glaring similarity between 2005 and 2012.....in neither year, as September gets rolling, do we have a chance of making the playoffs. Of course, in 2005 there was good reason...but the similarity exists nonetheless.
Alirght, so a Houston draw/win tonight eliminates us on Sept 6. Could this possibly be the earliest MLS elimination ever?
By calendar date, certainly not, since some seasons ended around Sept. 6. By games remaining, I dunno.
I don't think that this is true. If Columbus loses out, and Toronto wins out, you would still be tied for 5th, and it goes to tie-breakers, all of which are up in the air now. Toronto is eliminated if they drop any points OR (Columbus gains any points AND Houston gains any points). On the 50-50 scale, you can't be eliminated tonight, but have a 67% chance of elimination by end of day on the 12th, and a 95% chance of being eliminated by end of day on the 15th. Methodology: Toronto has 2 matches, with 9 possible outcomes (3^2) with only one non-elimination result so 89% chance of elimination based on own results. Dynamo cannot eliminate by themselves, but have 2 matches. Crew cannot eliminate them by themselves, but have 1 match. Dynamo have an 89% chance of picking up at least one point. Columbus have a 67% chance of picking up at least one point. Combined, they have .67 * .89 or 59% chance of *both* picking up at least a point and eliminating Toronto. So to invert the numbers, Toronto has 11% * 41% chance of surviving to the end of the 5 matches, or 4.5% survival chance, or 95.5% elimination chance through the games on Sept 15. Further: If Dynamo pick up a point tonight, chances of survival drop to 11 * 33 = 3.7% through the 15th and if Dynamo lose tonight, chances of survival through the 15th climb to 6.2% (11 * 55.5)
No, i meant 2005....but you did catch on to the "good reason" we were eliminated at this point in 2005....now, if someone can explain 2012, there are people here interested!
Another nice resource on Magic Numbers: http://mobile.sounderatheart.com/2012/9/5/3294301/state-of-the-mls-run-in-8-weeks-to-go
If Houston gets a point tonight, TFC can't catch them. That means at least four teams we can't catch (New York, KC, CHI, and HOU). Since, either DCU or CLB must finish above 42 points (as they play each other later on this season), one of them is uncatchable. That makes five.
Touche. So Toronto has a 66.7% chance of elimination tonight, 88.9% by the end of day on the 12th, and 98.8% by end of day the 15th, since it doesn't matter what the crew do. It is strictly between Toronto and the Dynamo between now and the end of the season.
Your team has more commonality with a steaming pile of moose poo than it has with a winning soccer team?
So, what you are saying is that it looks the same from the outside as it does from here? Was hoping for some outside observation that would offer greater insight...but thanks for trying!