2010 MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 3

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Andy_B, Apr 7, 2010.

  1. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    % of season completed				
    5.4%				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	32229	27126	12.5%	87.5%
    1997	20599	14862	12.5%	37.5%
    1998	15992	14841	10.0%	20.0%
    1999	15912	16191	20.0%	20.0%
    2000	14448	13005	20.0%	20.0%
    2001	18738	17667	0.0%	25.0%
    2002	19959	15214	0.0%	28.6%
    2003	17270	18924	25.0%	50.0%
    2004	20544	22480	25.0%	75.0%
    2005	12778	12088	30.0%	0.0%
    2006	21653	20541	0.0%	60.0%
    2007	17695	17245	0.0%	20.0%
    2008	16403	17119	9.1%	27.3%
    2009	15314	15291	8.3%	8.3%
    2010	19211	18653	7.7%	38.5%
    
    Code:
    Final Numbers				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17406	15093	21.9%	26.3%
    1997	14619	12733	25.0%	16.3%
    1998	14312	11871	26.6%	16.1%
    1999	14282	12973	32.3%	15.1%
    2000	13756	12690	34.4%	12.5%
    2001	14962	13431	26.6%	17.7%
    2002	15821	14108	17.1%	18.6%
    2003	14898	13641	23.3%	18.0%
    2004	15559	13285	24.7%	25.3%
    2005	15108	12619	27.1%	17.7%
    2006	15504	14175	18.8%	18.8%
    2007	16770	15353	8.2%	29.7%
    2008	16459	15188	11.0%	24.8%
    2009	16037	14686	14.7%	20.9%
    
     
  2. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    AAQ:

    Average: 6th out of 15
    Median: 5th out of 15
    <10k: 5th out of 15
    >20k: 5th out of 15

    AAQ = (6+5+5+5)/4 = 5.25
     
  3. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Jesus, look at the 2005 numbers. What a horrible start to that year...
     
  4. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    Don't know if these other facts have anything to do with the poor attendance start in 2005 (as it likely just had a lot to do with where the early-season games were played that year) -- but 2005 was the season when MLS grew from 10 to 12 teams (RSL and CUSA added) and the first year that the 12-game reserve division was launched.

    certainly 2010 has gotten off to a very good attendance start for the league -- likely in part due to where the early-season games have been played (two games already in Seattle and one in the newly opened Harrison venue).
     
  5. DoctorD

    DoctorD Member+

    Sep 29, 2002
    MidAtlantic
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And we all remember the RSL opener vs NY that year.
     
  6. Neemtree

    Neemtree Member

    Jan 11, 2003
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm guessing this weeks attendance will drag down the average a little and its really a good news bad news for all of the games.

    Good Games:

    DC United at Philly: The Philly home opener should be a big draw look for close to 30k and a solid group of away supporters.

    Sounders at Real Salt Lake: Should be nice weather and the home opener for the defending champs look for a strong walk up and around 18-19K

    San Jose at Chicago: Not a great match up but good weather outlook and another home opener should be worth 17-18K

    LA at Houston: great weather good rivalry and a well supported team Houston drew 18k in their season opener look for about the same here

    Bad Games:
    Toronto at New England: Cool weather may hinder walk ups last years attendance was 11k against FC Dallas. Toronto should provide a bump call it 13K

    New York at Chivas: Weak start and lack luster match up will keep attendance down for this one Chivas drew 18k on the opening weekend call it 15K for this week

    Rapids at KC: It will sell out but that's still just 10K

    Columbus at FC Dallas: They drew 8k for their home opener against an instate rival they will be lucky to pass 7k this week

    Add it all up and you get an average just over 16K not bad but a large drop off from the opening weeks.
     
  7. CACuzcatlan

    CACuzcatlan Member

    Jun 11, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not I. Please refresh those of us who weren't following MLS at that time.
     
  8. Trav-Man

    Trav-Man Member

    Jun 7, 2007
    Dallas, TX
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I thought I read somewhere that this game is sold out. I can't recall where though.
     
  9. DoctorD

    DoctorD Member+

    Sep 29, 2002
    MidAtlantic
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I had recently posted this somewhere. Anyway, the game was played in a nor'easter in New York. It was a gale in the true meterological sense: strong winds and driving rain. Clint Mathis went to tee up a corner and the ball was blown away from the spot. On at least one free kick, someone had to hold the ball to keep it from rolling away.

    simply miserable. I don't know the exact attendance, but it could not have been high.
     
  10. nick

    nick Member+

    Nov 23, 1998
    Potomac Falls, Va
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't see how a sell out is considered "a Bad Game". It is what it is for the time being. KC and SJ playing at home should be their own category for now. Yes they drag down attendance averages but if they sell out or operate at 98/99% of capacity that's hardly bad.

    The only game that is truly troubling is the FC Dallas home game. The level of mismanagement to push attendance to that level in a wonderful SSS complex is remarkable.

    I've been to Pizza Hut Park and I just don't entirely buy the location issue. Yes it could discourge a portion of the fan base from attending, but I can't see that it has the affect of dropping attendance into the 7k range. There are clearly other factors at work where the team FO is not connecting with existing fans and with potential new fans in the entire NW corner of the Dallas FW area.

    The New England home game is a concern but not to the level of Dallas.
     
  11. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    7k would be an increase from 2009's second home match.

    I'm going to go out on a limb, and predict that FCD gets 8-9k. The match will be a Saturday evening match, as opposed to week one's afternoon contest. That should bring more attendees out to replace the Dynamo fans from week 1.
     
  12. Eric B

    Eric B Member

    Feb 21, 2000
    the LBC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Some of you people keep forgetting the Saturday afternoon factor, especially in the markets with "lazier" FO's. I imagine both Dallas and CUSA will hit about 11K.
     
  13. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    I can't see FCD reaching 11k this weekend. If they manage to get over 10k it would be a victory.

    That would be an ~70% increase over last year's week two attendance.

    http://www.mls-daily.com/2009/04/fc-dallas-2009-home-attendance.html
     
  14. Neemtree

    Neemtree Member

    Jan 11, 2003
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just meant "bad" in terms of the attendance numbers which is the focus of this thread. I think long term KC is on the right track and will be on par with Chicago and Chivas attendance wise once their new stadium is built.
     
  15. CrewBeat

    CrewBeat Be Massive My Friends

    Jul 27, 2004
    Manhattan
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've heard Section 8 is sold out, that's possibly what you heard.
     
  16. milicz

    milicz Member+

    Dec 2, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    It may still end up selling out, fingers crossed.
     
  17. Trav-Man

    Trav-Man Member

    Jun 7, 2007
    Dallas, TX
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think you're right. I saw that on my twitter feed.
     
  18. bunge

    bunge BigSoccer Supporter

    Oct 24, 2000
    Section 8 is sold out and it looks like the rest of the stadium is coming close.
     
  19. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
    Cool good. I'm happy.
     
  20. scheck

    scheck Member

    Mar 13, 2007
    Denver
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Very encouraging to see the numbers higher than the last 3 years.
     
  21. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It would be horrible not to see higher numbers given Seattle and a larger Toronto capacity and Red Bulls now drawing good crowds. Soon Philly should also pull the numbers up a little.
     
  22. Simster

    Simster Member

    May 16, 2002
    London
    Club:
    Brighton & Hove Albion FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Not bad? Considering Seattle, NY, LA and Toronto are all playing away from home, to more or less hit the average league attendance for the past 2 or 3 years would be absolutely fantastic.

    On another point, what amazes me is that announced attendances are pretty believeable these days. It was only 4 years ago when NY would announce 11,000 but pictures posted on here would show that only around 1,000 were actually in GS. So even if tickets sold is/was being used rather than actual attendance, at the very least it still points to the fact that people with tix do actually show up to MLS games these days.
     
  23. Furacao del Norte

    Mar 13, 2009
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, but last year game 2 was on the Sunday afternoon one week after the opener. Sunday afternoon is brutal, much worse than Saturday, and it was so soon after the opener that they hardly had a chance to sell it.

    This year, it's Saturday night and the FO have had two weeks to sell it. That sales force they hired three days before the opener? They're on the job now. I got a call tonight for the first time in a year and a half.

    I'm not calling a sell-out or anything (I'm not insane), but I bet we outdraw the opener.
     
  24. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    I would guess this ("these days" analysis) is in part due to the Week 1 and Week 2 "First Kick" and "Home Opener" reality.

    as the season drags on and the summer roles around, people may be heading out on vacations, and we may see some of the possible discrepancies between "tickets sold/distributed" and "seats filled."

    either way, it is good to see "solid" crowds at a lot of MLS venues at this young point in the season. 2010 has the potential to be a very solid year as a whole for league attendance (with some obvious highs and lows in various markets).
     
  25. Fiosfan

    Fiosfan Red Card

    Mar 21, 2010
    Nevada
    Club:
    New York City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Over 10k at FCD would be considered a sell-out..
     

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