2009 MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 25

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Andy_B, Aug 31, 2009.

  1. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    % of season completed				
    76.3%				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17997	15220	23.0%	28.7%
    1997	14945	13152	20.5%	16.4%
    1998	14421	11682	24.7%	15.8%
    1999	14527	13101	31.5%	15.8%
    2000	13515	12546	36.3%	11.0%
    2001	14854	13431	25.8%	17.5%
    2002	15606	13507	18.9%	17.0%
    2003	14574	13442	24.6%	17.5%
    2004	15107	13122	27.2%	22.8%
    2005	14779	12167	30.1%	15.1%
    2006	15372	13036	21.9%	17.8%
    2007	15937	14464	10.1%	22.3%
    2008	16476	15264	11.3%	25.0%
    2009	15873	14611	15.8%	20.5%
    				
    				
    Final Numbers				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17406	15093	21.9%	26.3%
    1997	14619	12733	25.0%	16.3%
    1998	14312	11871	26.6%	16.1%
    1999	14282	12973	32.3%	15.1%
    2000	13756	12690	34.4%	12.5%
    2001	14962	13431	26.6%	17.7%
    2002	15821	14108	17.1%	18.6%
    2003	14898	13641	23.3%	18.0%
    2004	15559	13285	24.7%	25.3%
    2005	15108	12619	27.1%	17.7%
    2006	15504	14175	18.8%	18.8%
    2007	16770	15353	8.2%	29.7%
    2008	16459	15188	11.0%	24.8%
    
     
  2. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    AAQ:

    Average: 4th out of 14
    Median: 3rd out of 14
    <10k: 3rd out of 14
    >=20k: 5th out of 14

    AAQ: 3.75

    The median looks like it will shortly lose its grip on 3rd place and move down to 4th place by the end of the season.

    I think the final AAQ will be between 4 and 5.
     
  3. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am a trend guy and one trend that bothers me is that when looking at the 4 major categories, all are dropping when compared to last year, and all 4 dropped last year when compared to 2007(which was MLS's best year to be fair).
     
  4. blockski

    blockski Member

    Feb 13, 2009
    Club:
    DC United
    US unemployment rate, December 2007 - 4.9%

    US unemployment rate, June 2009 - 9.5%

    Is the trend worrisome? Sure. Is it specific to MLS? I don't think so.
     
  5. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I find it fascinating how 2009 continues to track 2007, despite 2007 being the best year for attendance in MLS history. Andy, when did the 2007 numbers start jumping ahead?
     
  6. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

    Jun 25, 2003
    dc
    Without Seattle, this year would have been ugly.
     
  7. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And without Toronto and Beckham 2007 wouldn't have been as good....
     
  8. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member+

    Apr 27, 2004
    Why do people keep saying this every single week :confused:
     
  9. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Without Chicago & Miami, they probably fold the league in 99
     
  10. iammrben

    iammrben Member

    Jul 27, 2007
    DC (Petworth)
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Without the World Cup in '94, the league never exists and we never get the distinct privilege of reading MM10S's crap every day.
     
  11. okcomputer

    okcomputer Member

    Jun 25, 2003
    dc
    Without them the average is 14,635. That would be one of the lower years ever.
     
  12. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sucks to be Chivas and RSL eh? :) Nothing good came from their arrival in 2005.
     
  13. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    *gasps* Really? That's shocking! Who knew?!?! It's not like this hasn't been mentioned every single week. Yay! Seattle saved MLS! :p
     
  14. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And by "one of the lower years ever" you mean 10th out of 14th. In the middle of a recession. Yeah it wouldn't be great but I'm not sure that's a disaster.
     
  15. blockski

    blockski Member

    Feb 13, 2009
    Club:
    DC United
    This.

    Again, I'll re-iterate myself, this time with nifty graphs:

    [​IMG]
    That's the unemployment rate over the past 10 years from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
     
  16. Fiorentina lives!

    May 5, 2004
    Colorado's stadium sure looked rather empty yesterday...
     
  17. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    At about the 60% mark. Blanco and the remaining Beck's affect really started driving the numbers, especially the median which experience a significant jump in the second half of the season.

    It won't be long before the 2007 median jumps past the 2009 IMO.
     
  18. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    but you can't cherry pick like that and get a logical result. You would have to also remove a variable from every season and then do your comparison.
     
  19. They reported 10k and change. I'd say it was maybe half that in reality.
     
  20. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    since we're discussing hypothetical MLS set-ups (what would the average be without Seattle), does anyone have a projected average for 2009 if say KC and/or SJ weren't in temporary 10K venues, but instead were already in ~18K venues and hypothetically averaging 14-15K fans or so?

    it's not that I really care, but it's just that these "what if" scenarios are kinda pointless, imo. given that MLS does expand, and new teams seem to join pretty regularly across recent seasons. the average attendance in Seattle has been outstanding in their year one (and likely will continue for many seasons), no doubt about it.

    but help (in terms of attendance) from new teams (be they Seattle or TFC or whomever in the future) is greatly important, and it should be expected and weighed in amongst all the important "attendance factors" that MLS encounters as it expands the number of teams in the league (and still doesn't yet have all teams in ideal stadium situations/locations).
     
  21. monster

    monster Member

    Oct 19, 1999
    Hanover, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And why do people phrase it as if it's a negative?
     
  22. CACuzcatlan

    CACuzcatlan Member

    Jun 11, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    San Jose has an average in that range this year due to the Galaxy games in Oakland and the Barcelona double header.
     
  23. monster

    monster Member

    Oct 19, 1999
    Hanover, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Did the camera show the whole stadium? Or were you there?
     
  24. You could see Colorado spelled on the seats clearly so there is no way it could have been more then half full.
     
  25. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    of course, but hypothetically, their other 12 home games would have a higher average as well. Just putting ideas out there and (as your post helps to indicate) there are other things that affect/drive attendance across a season than just the newest team in the league, or the team leading (by a large margin in this case) amongst average attendances for each team in MLS.

    as for the "league average without Seattle" -- was that adjusted average computed by only removing Seattle's home games, or did it also factor in removing the attendance data for Seattle's road games as well?

    expansion is a good (great) thing. having 2009's attendance data track fairly comparably to 2007's data is also a solid thing for MLS.
     

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