Really quickie CONMEBOL scenarios for the last match day: URUGUAY is in with: - a win/draw - Peru/Colombia ends in a draw - Chile loss/draw CHILE is in with: - a win - a draw AND Peru/Colombia ends in a draw AND Chile ends up with more goals scored than Colombia AND a Paraguay loss/draw COLOMBIA is in with: - a win - a draw AND -- Paraguay does not overcome a GD of 7 -- Argentina loss/draw PERU is in with: - a win - a draw AND -- Chile loses by at least 2 goals -- Argentina loss/draw -- Paraguay loss/draw ARGENTINA is in with: - a win AND EITHER Peru/Colombia ends in a draw OR a Chile loss/draw PARAGUAY is in with: - a win AND a Chile loss AND an Argentina loss/draw I KNOW for a fact I missed plenty of scenarios, but these are the quickest ones I calculated.
to me, Uruguay is pretty much though, even if they lose. The are +3 ahead of Peru and Argentina. However, they have +10 goal dif, while Peru and Argentina both have only +1. So even if they lose like 0-4 at home against Bolivia, they are ahead of Argentina if the later won`t win 5-0 in Ecuador and are ahread of Peru, if they don`t win 5-0 against Colombia. Such things only happen in twilight zone.
Argentina pretty much have to win, or they're out. There is a scenario where they could finish 5th and make the playoff with a draw, but it would require BOTH Colombia and Chile to lose by two goals. If either loses by only one goal, Argentina would be out, because although they would be tied on points and goal differential at 26 points and a +1 GD, both Colombia and Chile have scored more goals than Argentina.
Uruguay is at least guaranteed 5th, but with the +10 goal difference they are basically guaranteed a top 4 finish.
Let's say Argentina draws and gets passed by Paraguay beating Venezuela. Then Argentina would need to pass two of Chile, Colombia, and Peru. That would happen if Colombia and Chile lose by at least two. It would also happen if Chile loses by at least two and Colombia beats Peru by any score. Then third through seventh would be: Colombia: 29 points and +3 or better (and in second ahead of Uruguay if Uruguay loses) Paraguay: 27 points and -4 or better (with a win over Venezuela) Argentina: 26 points and +1 Chile: 26 points and +0 or worse Peru: 25 points and +0 or worse In their 9 home games, Argentina has as many shutout losses (2) as games with at least 2 goals scored.
Uganda v Ghana has just finished 0-0. This means Uganda now has 8 points and Ghana 6. Egypt already has 9 with a match in hand. This means Egypt can qualify tomorrow with a win at home against Congo, as neither Uganda nor Ghana can get to 12 points.
Egypt is also in a very good position, just needing to beat Congo at home tomorrow to qualify with a match to spare. Also, Morocco will qualify if they beat Gabon at home today and don't lose in the Ivory Coast on the final match day. So we could have 3 North African teams in the World Cup for the first time.
Senegal now take control of group D with a game in hand... They are 2 pts ahead of their closest contenders and due to a +4 GD they likely need just 1 pt from the next two games to qualify. I say barring a miracle Tunisia, Egypt, Senegal and Nigeria will be in Russia. The only question mark is Group C. Even if Morocco win today, qualification is still a wide open matter, as Cote d'Ivoire will only need to win at home to qualify.
I'm calling it - next to qualify: Switzerland! Andorra to beat Portugal today! Switzerland qualifies with a match in hand.
I mostly agree. I think Morocco (which leads Gabon 1-0 as I write this) has more of a chance than your post suggests, though. IIRC Morocco drew Cote d'Ivoire home and away in the penultimate qualifying round last time around. Cote d'Ivoire has also already lost at home this qualifying cycle (1-2 against Gabon). Granted, in a do-or-die scenario like this, you'd think they play with more urgency than they did in those qualifiers from four years ago I mentioned, but they are definitely vulnerable. Personally, I like new teams qualifying (unless it's at the expense of a team I particularly like), so I'd welcome Morocco qualifying. 57 minutes in, Andorra and Portugal are still drawn. I don't think Andorra will beat Portugal, but there is a possibility the match finishes in a draw. In any case, yes, Switzerland might qualify today.
I'm not saying Morocco has a slim chance or whatever. I'm just saying its a wide open matter. Morocco will need a win or a draw to qualify, Cote d'Ivoire a win. Given its an away game I say chances are even. Besides - lets not jump the ship just yet... Gabon is still in it and its 1:0... BTW Four years ago the last game was Cote d'Ivoire vs Morocco with Cote d'Ivoire already qualified with a game in hand. So that was a glorified friendly. The first game was an away game, where Morocco drew at the death and Cote d'Ivoire dominated thoroughly despite it being an away game. Totally different situation. Albeit Cote d'Ivoire was a stronger team back then, while Morocco is much better than four years ago. EDIT: 2:0 now. So Cote d'Ivoire vs Morocco it will likely be
Fair enough. That information puts things in some perspective. The fact that match is at home for Cote d'Ivoire perhaps gives it a slight advantage, but its relatively poor form recently makes me think Morocco may be able to spring a surprise. We'll see. In other news, Portugal now leads 2-0 in Andorra, so it looks like that group will in fact not be decided until the final match day. EDIT: Morocco is now 3-0 up against Gabon. If it wasn't already in the bag, it surely is now.
Cote d'Ivoire did have a lot of players injured though. No Gervinho, no Seydou Doumbia, no Wilfried Zaha, no Max Gradel, no Adama Traore (the starting left back), no Jean Michel Seri. Thats basically over half of the starting line-up. And its not like Morocco fared any better in Mali. Hard to say, but Cote d'Ivoire obviously not dominating qualifying as they did these past few World Cups.
All of those are fair points. The result that really stands out, and the main reason Cote d'Ivoire is in this position of having to win their last match in the first place, is their home loss against Gabon (although, to be fair, they did win the away match convincingly).
13. Costa Rica Kendall Waston scored in the 90+5th minute to let the home fans celebrate a 1-1 draw. Honduras scored in the 66th minute. 46 teams have not qualified or been eliminated.