1-32: FIFA World Cup qualification timeline

If Zambia and Algeria draw today, Nigeria will know they qualify with a win in Cameroon. Nigeria is at Cameroon before the second Zambia vs. Algeria game, so if the first Zambia vs. Algeria game has a winner and Nigeria wins, Nigeria can qualify the day after they play.
Honduras vs. USA is the first CONCACAF game of the day, so if they draw Costa Rica will know they can't clinch qualification.

 

Looks like we can scratch that scenario... surprisingly Algeria being manhandled by Zambia.

 

Of the teams in the Round of 16 last time:

Qualified (2): Brazil and Mexico
Probable (8): Colombia, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Switzerland, France, Germany, Belgium, and Nigeria
Questionable (4): Argentina, Chile, USA, and Greece
Doubtful (2): Algeria and Netherlands

That's my opinion. In CONMEBOL it's hard to differentiate between Probable (what I gave Colombia and Uruguay) and Questionable (what I gave Argentina and Chile).

 

6. Belgium

 

So, France do the almost impossible and fail to beat Luxemburg at home...

 

7. South Korea

 

8. Saudi Arabia

 

You've got the CONMEBOL all wrong. The teams play two games in October and you gave scenarios for the 17th round of games, in which only Uruguay and Colombia can qualify:

URUGUAY - qualifies with:
- a win AND either Argentina or Peru win AND a Colombia loss AND a Chile loss
- a win AND a Argentina - Peru draw AND either a Colombia or a Chile loss
- a draw AND a Chile loss AND a Argentina - Peru draw

COLOMBIA clinches with:
- a win AND a Chile loss AND a Argentina - Peru draw

The permutations for the 18th round are too complex to count.

 

Only Uruguay and Colombia could secure their spots next match date.

Last direct spots in Conmebol, together with the playoff spot, will only get decided the last match date.

And let me remind you that the playoff spot is not a 100 % ticket to the WC, as in the playoff despite the diference in level that may exist with the OFC representative (New Zeland), anyone can win and whom happens to lose will not get WC tickets.

 

Looking increasingly likely that either Chile or Argentina will do a playoff... worst case scenario one of Chile and Argentina might even finish sixth or seventh with Peru, Paraguay and Ecuador all breating down your necks! The champions and the runners up of CONMEBOL in dire straits. Pretty unexpected scenario I must say.

 

Small summary of seeds going into October:

1. Germany 1605
2. Brasil 1590
3. Portugal 1386
4. Argentina 1325
5. Belgium 1265
6. Poland 1250
7. Switzerland 1210
-----
8. France 1208
9. Chile 1195
10. Colombia 1191
11. Spain 1184
12. Peru 1103
13. Wales 1089
14. Mexico 1083

All other teams are well below 1100 points and very unlikely to be seeded. Note Wales - they are on a strong push upwards and if they win the remaining games and 1-2 of Argentina, Chile, Switzerland, Colombia fail to advance they will be seeded! It is entirely feasible for the seeds to be: Brasil, Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland and Wales.


Whereas Argentina, Chile and Switzerland are far from guaranteed qualifying.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Fact we play Brazil away, for the last match date puts us in a very dificult position, as for us to secure anything, we will have to do the almost impossible and beat them there (something that has never happened to them ever in WC qualifiers, against no one).

 

Are you suggesting that you are basically out?
Hmm... I must say you have a point, but there is still some hope:

With a optimistic scenario of a draw (vs Brazil A) and a win (vs Ecuador H) Chile will have 27 pts, meaning one of the below would have to happen (Chile's fate is totally out of their hands):
- Uruguay must lose two of their easiest games: Venezuela away and Bolivia home plus a +9 GD would have to be made up (not going to happen)
- Colombia would have to get at best 1 point from a home game vs Paraguay and an away game vs Peru (pretty unlikely - Colombia should win at home)
- Peru would have to at best get 3 pts in their away game vs Argentina and their home game vs Colombia, even then goal difference comes into play (tough games for Peru, they could be vulnerable)
- Argentina would have to at best get 3 pts in their home game vs Peru and away game vs Ecuador, even then goal difference come into play (they should

Also Paraguay can pull off a shock win in Colombia and then reach 27 pts (albeit with a poor GD).

Peru and Argentina are still vulnerable therefore. Even 3 pts for Chile in their next game might be enough if either Peru or Argentina get just one point in their next two games. Peru has a tough set of games, while Argentina are just playing terrible, so who knows...

Lets say they don't make it - that would be two continental champions out (Cameroon, Chile) with USA (in playoff spot with Panama yet to be played and Honduras breathing down their neck), Portugal (Switzerland still in front and then a playoff) and Australia (two playoffs ahead of them) still in risk of failing. Add to that New Zealand who will likely lose out to the 5th CONMEBOL team and we could have an chance of an unprecendented situation all continental champions do not make the World Cup (Portugal with an outside chance of failure).

On a side note: Also not likely, but still very possible:
A group of debutants:
Wales, Iceland, Burkina Faso, Syria.

 

There's always hope.

But from hope to be completely, 100 % certain, and without any doubt, sure it's going to happen,.... we are talking about a very great distance.

For real though, knowing how we've been playing lately and how the others been playing lately, with all the positives vs all the negatives, the others have a stronger position to achieve that final goal.

Happens and it's part of the game. You win some and lose some. We've won a lot in recent times, but at some point all that glory will end, and maybe our time for that has come.

But yes, we still have hope in turning things around (hopes and dreaming are for free, and no damage is done in wishful thinking).....

 

Sad Pelé is sad - it was a good goal.

J

 

Wales reached the quarter-finals in 1958. One and only appearance at the Finals so far, but one more than none!

 

That's correct. Panama would lead USA and Honduras by 4 points with 1 game left. USA vs. Panama will be first, so if Panama wins they can watch Costa Rica vs. Honduras to see if they qualify.

 

I have corrections:

1. Honduras ends hosting Mexico, not Panama.
2. Tunisia qualifies with a win and a draw.

 

Just curious: As a Chilean fan, are you surprised by how awfully Chile has been playing recently, or did you see this coming? Because this is a far cry from the team I was so impressed by during the World Cup three years ago. To think I considered Chile an outside contender to win the World Cup just a matter of months ago...

 

Chile is not playing awfully. Despite final result being defeats, the team still manages to have more posession than the eventual opponent.

Chile has had scoring problems, lately (since last year, till now). Once we solve this issue, we'll be back in business (only problem, we need to solve it soon, as there is only one month left for WC qualifiers to finish).