Assume that the European big four are the best leagues in the world. Then assume that the clubs in the Champion's League are the cream of that crop. In the U.S., we've basically got two development systems: 1)amateur youth clubs + USSF U18,U20 and college+MLS 2)amateur youth clubs + USSF U17 residency + MLS I realize that a player could be an U17 residency player, go to college and be an U18,U20 player and then to MLS. Let's simplify it for comparison purposes into U17 residency + MLS to U18,college, U20 + MLS. Also, we're only going to consider the best players from each group, not the Beckermans, nor the Jolleys, etc. 4 year college players: Reyna--highest level achieved with a big four team has been Sunderland and VFL Wolfsburg, mid to lower tier teams. This is with an EU passport, so if he had the talent to play on Champion's League teams, he would have been picked up already. Sanneh--highest level achieved has been with a mid-tier Hertha Berlin or Nurenburg. Berhalter--highest level achieved has been with a lower tier Cottbus. Gibbs--lower tier Bunesliga team. Would it be safe to assume that the highest level a player can reach with four years of college ball would be a mid to lower tier team in the big four? Or is it taking it too far? I'm not trying to belittle these players, just trying to make some observations. Contrast that with the rumored values and potential abilities of the U17 residency players(admittedly only potential at this point). Donovan--still considered to have the potential to play for a European Champion's League team in the big four. Beasley---Ajax's 2 million dollar bid would have gone through had they not found a Dutch player at the last minute. Not sure about his value to the big four CL's teams. Convey---Bundesliga scout at the 2001 U20 WYC said that he had the ability to play in their league right then and there. Quaranta and Johnson--Manchester United have been interested in both of them and have rumored to have considered putting Johnson in with their Belgium affiliate for future purposes. Q supposedly has an EU passport possibility so that might distort his value some. Would it be safe to assume that to have a better chance at a higher tier team in Europe, U17 residency/year round immersion training is necessary with most players? Or is the sample size too small for both groups? This may go without saying to most of you all, but I wanted to see if there was some general consensus out there.
You're taking it way too far. Before Mathis blew out his knee in 2001, he had Bayern Munich written all over him. Brian McBride is currently playing a big part in Everton's push to reach next year's Champions League. Hejduk's time with Leverkusen might qualify him, too. BTW, didn't Reyna and Berhalter both leave college early?
Re: Re: Youth development and how it translates to the professional game Yeah, I think they both played three years. Anyway, I don't think it makes much sense to try to definitively compare different development paths this way, because of the big selection bias issues. Players who go pro before college may tend to have a higher ceiling than NCAA players, and players who leave after three years will tend to look better than those that stay all four - but that's partly because you have to be extremely good to make a pro first-team roster at the age 17, and unusually good to get drafted before your senior year. Going pro early is an effect as well as a cause of having pro talent, and it's hard to separate the two. How many years did David Weir spend at the U. of Evansville, anyway?
Re: Re: Youth development and how it translates to the professional game Everton is still a mid tier team in the EPL in my mind unless they finish in a UEFA Cup or CL's spot. They may have last year, I don't follow the EPL too closely. Hejduk played very little for Leverkusen, and they liked him so much they let him go. I wouldn't call that making an impact. I think Mathis pre-injury might have gotten signed by Munich, but his impact there would still have been up in the air IMHO. Ramos, one of our best past players, was in the 2nd division with Real Betis a good part of his career. Wynalda played briefly in the Bundesliga 1st, but always hovered around that Berhalter level in terms of club. In the future we'll be able to make more observations, especially about Cherundolo, Bocanegra etc.
Re: Re: Re: Youth development and how it translates to the professional game Yeah, but isn't that the point of the whole argument? That you have a higher potential ceiling when you have the residency training versus the lower ceiling with NCAA training. Let's try this a different way. Would Donovan be as good as he is now had he not had U17 immersion training and gone to college? He'd be right around the age of a college senior this year. Factor in the huge adjustment to the speed of play that offensive college players have to make and he might not even be approaching MLS All Star levels for another two years in 2005.