Really though provoking post. I went completely the other way, but this challenges a lot of that. I'm not entirely sure you are right -- the roster we'd be bringing to Qatar would be very young and I don't know if Berhalter and Co. would go that far -- but it's intriguing. I think the tough part for me is if you go with the idea that we will have substantially younger lineup than I supposed ... the actual player selection is so completely up in the air.
It is, as far as this youngest 5 surely, maybe even bottom 1/3 to 2/5 of the roster. At this pt in the '18 cycle: - Pulisic was just emerging at BVB. He wasn't as far along as Reyna even. He might have went to BVB's academy anyway due to his father + dual status, or may have went Aaronson's route. Would have been 19 at the WC. - McKennie was in FCD's academy. Ultimately was in that first friendly after qualifying & scored. Probably would have been at the WC at 19. - Adams was at RB 2, went on to play well in the 1st friendly after qualifying, & likely would have been at the WC at 19. - Weah was in PSG academy. Maybe he still would have gone there due to his father, or stayed in RBNY's academy. Eventually debuted in those post WC friendlies & played some for PSG toward the end of that season. He had a shout for a WC spot at 18, especially at winger where had little depth. - Remember JoGo? He was in Monterrey's academy. Today that may be San Jose's academy or 1st team like Cowell. Went on to breakout at Monterrey, & likely would have been at the WC for the US, at 19. That's up to 5 teens, 4 of which hadn't done anything up until now. So it could be I was even conservative, only having 1 teen on the list, w/ the rest 20 to just over 22. It's just that it's hard to predict, diving into academies. So at least being good in MLS or on the verge of a 1st team already in Europe is something to draw from. This is some pretty rapid turnover, to the point the Weahs', Adams', & even Sargents' who were suggested as the pups could be practically be relative vets come the next WC, mentoring & deputizing the actual youth. It could be a consideration by Gregg that it's too young of a roster to have several more teens to guys just over 20 AND the previous wave. But the new era has arrived, w/ the academy revolution, so have to get on board or be run over by not acknowledging it.
I would argue that BS's opinion on who would have gone would have been pretty close at this point. I used to keep track of predictions historically and one from March 2017 predicting the 2018 roster has Pulisic and McKennie, but not Adams, Weah JoGo, which I still think might have been correct. Obviously March 2017 and September 2016 are different, but I still would've picked Pulisic and McKennie still hadn't even debuted for the first team. I think there are two ways of looking at this analysis: 1) Your way, where you look at how many youth players you expect based on how many historically break out 2) Building a roster, and then seeing what gaps are open and which players could potentially break out in time to beat competition I think the second way makes more sense here. This is my roster, right now, barring any new breakouts (or at least something close, this is off the top of my head): ST: Sargent, Altidore, Zardes W: Pulisic, Weah, Morris, Reyna CM: McKennie, Holmes, Aaronson DM: Adams, Roldan LB: Dest, Robinson CB: Brooks, Long, Richards, EPB RB: Cannon, Yedlin GK: Steffen, Horvath, Turner So for a player to make the roster, they have to get good enough in game in two years to beat out someone else. Kobe could break out, but will he be a better option than any of the full backs with a few games for Wolfsburg? Probably not. He'll have to be getting at least 500 minutes (likely much more) to be considered. JoGo is even further behind to catch up. I think the easiest places to get on the roster are at CB #4, DM #2, and CM #2 and #3. Getting onto this roster as a winger is not easy - we already have Pulisic, Weah, Morris, and Reyna can play there in a pinch. I just don't see a way that Konrad and Llanez make it unless they're both killing it and can push Morris out, but that's tough considering he's the experience there. Harper needs to be scoring 20 a season for Celtic to get on here. Likewise, I think the only way Pepi makes it is if he drops 20 in MLS in 2022. Zardes is the trusty vet here. Pepi's best chance is if Altidore gets hurt, but otherwise he's one of 3 guys on the roster who's been to a WC before. Alternatively, if a guy like Kayo gets 1000 minutes for Wolfsburg in two years, I think he's almost a lock. I could even see Sands making it as an MLS all-star. If Johnny is playing week-in, week-out for International or makes a move to France, he's in there. Otasowie is taking a DM or CB spot if he looks good in the championship. It'll just be easier for those guys.
Kobe the LB may not beat them out. But what about Kobe the deep-lying distributor 6 which is how Wolfsburg has used him the last few games?
It's a dramatic difference from March of 2017 last cycle & September 2020 this one. Because of the late WC start, in Dec., it's a full year. Yes, in a yr, we will be much clearer picture, for all but a couple of the youngest players. And I wouldn't say one roster w/ Pulisic & McKennie at that pt would even be all that accurate. I think JoGo & Adams were highly likely for the roster, given what they were showing w/ club & country, + thru the trials starting at Portugal. Weah may be a stretch, but we were starting Arriola & had crap for depth. No Jordan Morris. So we're still going to see plenty of turnover, unpredictability, names come out of relative nowhere, & it's going to require some real prognostication to get anywhere close. It's a false dichotomy. You can do a combo & I did. Thus a player like Paredes is on there for his youth, maturity, & usefulness as a lb, or winger, or offensive 8. These are all needs. Or Otasowie makes a youngest 5 list because he'd still be on the young side @ 21 AND we need quality cb's & his brand of ball-playing. Not to mention that's another versatile guy. So on & so forth. You did the same thing as me, just have somewhat of a different interpretation on how to deploy the members of the the current roster (Morris CF, Reyna 10, for examples), & Weah is an injury question, so I think wing depth is a big need, whether that be a KDLF or Llanez, or an older guy like Mueller, or it opens up a chance for a younger guy like Paredes or even Cowell. I rate this u-17 cycle & the last higher from what I know higher than the previous ones. Guys are emerging at younger ages. I can bank on a kid showing it on MLS level already relative to Regionaliga or u-19's. Though those guys can go from youth NT'ers to senior teamers rapidly, w/in a couple months. But it's a less reliable path & there are a lot less of them. So outside exceptional talents like Reyna (who I was extremely bullish on, similar to Otasowie), who then also go to a youth factory like BVB, it's taking a lot of long shots. Right now w/ KDLF, we can go from uhhh to duh practically overnight. But Barcelona is tough to break into & he has his flaws. Similar thing w/ Kayo, only w/ less upside club-wise, & he's football's version of Evil Knievel - high reward but high risk, running into people, getting run into. On verge of TO, foul, or injury, & misses doesn't see open teammates. Still needs to slow down & see the field.
This expands on the point I made above. Basically, it seems likely that we will have a 19 year old on the roster, which would mean that an '03 has to be on the roster.
Your point is well taken, but there is a pretty good chance that at least a couple of field players are not available/in form. The big question is who are those guys and what will happen down the depth chart between now and then. Impossible to know.... fun to ponder.
Almost exactly the same logic I used! Dropped out Weah in my final cuts because I was nervous about chances one guy younger than him like Ledezma, Cardoso, Araujo, or Kayo squeaks in, so I took a flier on Kayo.
A lot can change in 2 years but that is a pretty good list. I personally would prefer Sebastian Soto over Pepi incase, as you say, Altidore is injured which is a very good probability. Or even Daryl Dike is another option. Too many young good players coming up that can improve or simply stay as that, a "promise". Bello, Cowell, Yow, Paredes, Nyeman, Pepi, Soto, Busio, Araujo, Dunbar, etc
Not sure if it's interesting enough to create a separate thread, but how many teenagers do people think will be on the roster? Qatar 2022 starts 11/21/22, so Reyna(11/13/02) will be 20 while Musah(11/29/02) will be 19. I'm thinking Caden Clark('03), Cade Cowell('03), and Malick Sanogo('04) have the best chance to make it, I don't see us taking chances on Moses Nyeman('03), Ricardo Pepi('03), or Evan Rotundo('04) even if it looks like they are breaking out in '22, and Jonathan Gomez('03), Quinn Sullivan('04), and Dantouma Toure('04) as other noteworthy but still unlikely contenders.
I’d Here are the u20’s who I think could make it for 2022. Best case scenario: Gio Reyna (lock) Yunus Musah (lock) Folarin Balogun (lock if he chooses USA) Matthew Hoppe (only if Folarin doesn’t choose usa) Caden Clark One of Uly Llanez/Konrad/Alex Mighten One of Johnny Cardoso or Owen Otasowie One of George Bello/Kobe/Jonathan Gomez One of Julian Araujo or Bryan Reynolds Overall even having 15 u20’s actually be in the running for the USMNT in a World Cup cycle is significant in my opinion. This bodes really well for the future. But we have to be realistic with the one’s who will actually get a shot For the 03’s and younger outside of Caden Clark and Jonathan Gomez I don’t think any have a chance for 2022. Caden does because of the 10’s lack of depth and promising Leipzig pipeline. JoGo has a chance because the LB position flat out sucks. Every other position is deep enough that an 03 or younger doesn’t stand a chance. Keep in mind we won’t likely see any 2003’s or younger for any country in 2022 anyways because they’re so young. Our 2003’s are still a very strong age group on a global scale and I’m confident that they’ll have a huge footprint in the 2026-2034 cycles. In regards to the 04’s, for 2022 and 2026 the only 04 who I’m confident in saying has the ability to fight for a spot is Malick Sanogo. I think Evan Rotundo, Antonio Leone, Brandan Craig, and Kenan Hot also have a shot for 2026 but have a lot of work to do fixing holes in their games. When looking at the 2023 u20 cycle and the 01-05 Olympic pool I barely see any of the 04’s even making those teams. Overall, I think the 2004’s are by far our worst age group and it isn’t likely that they’ll get bailed out like the 2002’s did with dual nats. With how the USMNT pool is progressing you need to be a true high end, blue chip talent to crack the USMNT player pool post 2022 and sadly the 2004’s just don’t have many of those. Luckily, the 2005’s and 2006’s have much better prospects who have emerged at the early stage
The youngest likely inclusion is now Yunus Musah, as he's two weeks younger than Reyna. I can't see anybody younger than an 02 making the roster. [Its amazing to me that those two are younger than Kayo.] If Caden Clark has a great 2021, then he's the only 03 I see with a chance. But even then he's 100% behind Reyna and Aaronson. The injuries to Ledezma and Pomykal increase his chances, but those guys will be back. There are other midfielders that might make a push too (Bassett and company) . It'll be too soon for Jonathan Gomez. He'll be in the USL next season. He'll move to Europe, but he'll only be there a few months before Berhalter has to put his roster together. This summer Robinson, Bello, and Vines all have the opportunity to lock down their places on the depth chart. If they falter, then I'll see how Gomez is performing against the mighty Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
What gives guys like JoGo and Caden a chance is the World Cup being 5 months later than usual. They’ll have basically an entire half year longer to break out which helps their chances. JoGo will move to Europe in January 2022, if he gets first team minutes by March then he 100% has a chance to make the World Cup squad
Right now we're playing dual 8s Reyna, Aaronson, Ledezma (if he comes back), Pomykal I don't think we're that thin, there. I think Caden has the kind of upside to go, with a whole two years ahead of him. After all, Reyna would go at 18 if there were a World Cup today. I think if an 03 goes it will be less about positional issues and more about the player being an absolute star.
Personally I see Pax as an 8 and I’m not as high on Brenden as most are. Ideally it would be Richie and Gio at the 10 but who knows how Richie will recover, I hope he comes back 100% because he’s a good kid with a bright future
Richie seems like a long shot at best to me because he has a major injury to come back from and even then he still has to break into the team. It's not like he was a regular before so I see him having major hurdles to climb and having to do them very quickly.
- Players who aren't committed to the US can't be locks. - Players who haven't proven anything against men can't be locks. - Players w/ talent to have a big season or move aren't out of the equation. That includes '03's who'll be almost 20. Pepi could breakout this season. - Aaronson is best as a creative wing. We have a need there behind Pulisic. And it looks like he may play there for RBS, replacing Szob. - Ledezma was breaking thru & has time to recover from an injury that recently has a good track record. Should be playing for a yr+ before WC. Plenty of time. We should still expect a significant amount of names who aren't part of the equation now or come from virtual nowhere. Players who are versatile like Araujo, Otasowie, Aaronson, & Pax have significant advantage in a tournament format. Same goes for an lb like Bello, Gomez, & KHF. A virtual specialist like Clark or Ledezma are at disadvantages. Also still have to beat out a solid holdover like Lletget.
Pax is a 8/10 in a 4-3-3 and probably a winger or one of the holding mids in a 4-2-3-1. He could play the #10 in that formation but it would be more as a disruptive force who combines and makes some good passes than a classic dribbling, dishing #10. His biggest weakness is staying healthy. If he can't do that nothing else will matter.
I think our World Cup roster will be surprisingly old. Not old old of course, but without any really young Julian Green type players making the final cut. 2005 and younger: not happening 2004: most likely is Malick Sanogo who is a dual national that has never played for the US at any level 2003: most likely are Ricardo Pepi and Caden Clark ... both possible but not likely My 8 picks 2002s: Yunus Musah, Gio Reyna, George Bello 2001s: Matthew Hoppe, Johnny Cardoso, Konrad de la Fuente, Bryan Reynolds, Ulysses Llanez (just missing the cut are Julian Araujo, Owen Otasowie, and Tanner Tessmann) That's eight... now all eight definitely won't make it, but when you get into the 2000s (Dest, Aaronson, Richards, Weah, Sargent, Soto, Gioacchini, Ledezma, Perea, Dike, etc. etc.) there are so many possibilities that the likelihood of selecting the right few for this is too low probability: 4-7 of the 2000s could make the WC roster with 0-2 being young enough for this. That's also why I didn't select any dual nationals who haven't played for the US yet (eg Folarin Balogun)... Playing it conservative in order to win!
I think we need to see both Pax and Richie after recovery before putting them onto a hypothetical WC roster. I believe we're being a little optimistic about Pax's return. Due to the injury history as well as the severity of the recent surgery. We still have one and a half club seasons to go before a roster needs to be set. A lot can still happen. As evidenced by the fact nobody had Hoppe on any sort of WC prediction roster......................until last week. Now all of a sudden he's the best thing since Cheez Whiz. A kid who is an 03 now can be in the 19 year old range for the 2022 WC. That certainly isn't too young to make a roster. [Beasley was 19 when selected for the 02WC; turned 20 while there I believe.] We sorta just need to see the performance first before jumping those 03s ahead of 01s and 02s that are breaking out. Musah and Reyna are both November 02 birthdays. And that performance has to be on a stage big enough to merit USMNT callups/inclusion. Jonathan Gomez doesn't have that stage in 2021. Caden Clark does. Ricardo Pepi does. Cade Cowell does. I'm not suggesting these guys are going to make the WC roster. Simply that they have a bigger stage on which to make a case. I can't assume whatever stage Gomez is going to have after he leaves Louisville. But he's going to have to become a starter immediately after arriving in Europe as an 18 year old, and play well enough to jump over others in the LB queue. Its a shallow LB pool, so it can be done. Worth noting that even the top of the line USYNT prospects don't move to bigger European leagues as 18 year olds and start right away (McKennie for instance). It sounds like I'm being negative about Gomez' ability. That's far from the case. I just don't see the timeline working for him, while it can for Caden Clark (if he has a strong 2021 season for NYRB). For people who don't believe my assertion that Gomez doesn't have a stage in 2021...............i give you Jose Gallegos. STRONG 2020 season for San Antonio. Nowhere to be found on the three USMNT camp rosters. Meanwhile Cade Cowell is there.
Injuries happen all the time. Most players come back from them just fine. I don't quite understand why the prevailing sentiment on the forum is a default "this player will never be the same again." We went through it with Pulisic, Weah, Adams... If someone has microfracture knee surgery, sure. Or if the player is a borderline talent to begin with. But young players coming back from typical injuries with high recovery rates ... if they aren't the same, I'll cross that bridge if we ever get there. For now, I think they are still valid discussion fodder. Ledezma will be cutting it close, but he'll have close to a year to impress.
How much in advance is the roster usually set for a tournament like this? Especially given the odd November/December timing, it's very relevant to the chances of an 03 or 04 if the roster is gonna be set in June 2022 vs October 2022
This was from 2018. I imagine the days before the 1st match will still be about the same in 2022. Nov. 21 will be the first match day of the WC. “A provisional list of 35 players per national team was submitted to FIFA by 14 May 2018, one month prior to the opening match of the tournament.[2] From the preliminary squad, the final list of 23 players per national team was submitted to FIFA by 4 June, 10 days prior to the opening match of the tournament.”
Thanks! I think that really opens things up for an 04 or even an 03 to break out that year. That's the entire 2022 MLS season, and a decent stretch of the 22-23 european season for someone to play their way onto the squad. I don't think it's worth even guessing who it will be, but I wouldn't be surprised one bit if someone younger than an 03 makes the roster.