YNT-eligible MLS players: 2020 In-season thread

Amaya, Duncan, and Fernandez starting in Cincy/NYRB match.

 

Another factor is that a lot of these kids come from poor families. I don't want to speculate which of them comes from a poor family because that wouldn't be right, but a lot of these players we see signing at 14, 15, 16, 17 come from families where an extra fifty thousand up to a few hundred thousand per year can be life changing for the family. A lot of them cannot afford to pass up between a few hundred thousand to a million dollars they'd make prior to turning 18.

 

Neither Hyndman nor Soto were in top five leagues when they were frozen out by their clubs.

 

That can happen, but I still think taking a mindset like this lets these clubs off the hook way too much.

I think we all recognize that if some players are playing top flight football at a young age, playing for the National Team, eventually moving onto Europe, they will become better than players who sit and rot at MLS clubs. You need to show development at all these ages. You can be as talented as you want at age 16. If ages 17-20 you don't see the field, it's going to effect your development. Your skills will not develop as well as they could've.

However, that doesn't mean that the ones who were given a platform for success developed their games into having more ability than those who rotted. I think that rarely happens. When it happens, it's usually the type of thing thats noticeable in a significant skill development.

I think what you end up seeing is that most of the ones whose careers took off that weren't heralded before had better circumstances in their favor. Maybe thats lack of injuries, opportunity for success at their club team, luck with the team's strategy for using academy players when they came through. That might help them have better careers than the ones who rotted, but I think what becomes a problem for our NT is that I don't think it means the ones who had success got so much better. There are always going to be players who break through that weren't extremely heralded.

It doesn't however mean that these players have unlimited potential. You can give as many mid-tier talents great conditions for success. If they don't have top level ability, they aren't going to eventually have a chance to play for the top clubs in the world. We only have a very limited number of players who have this type of ability, and its usually evident by no later than 18-20. Not all will reach the level of potential they had, but I don't think its often that at these ages we are adjusting up what their ceiling is.

We cannot continue to lose a top talent each age group to rotting in MLS. We don't produce enough of them that we can afford one to fail before they even leave MLS because some of them are going to fail once they do reach the top level. There are plenty of flops who get signed for big fees at these top clubs, and don't materialize into contributors for the top teams. I'd like to think our players won't become that, but we can't be sure that Adams, McKennie, Reyna, Dest won't become that if they sign with better clubs in the upcoming years.

 

Hell, Keaton Parks got frozen out by a 2nd Division Portuguese club.

 

I should've phrased that differently.

FCD and Philly will give young players an opportunity to succeed IMO. I think if a young player has an opportunity to sign with those clubs at a young age instead of waiting until they can go to Europe, it's an option they have to consider. It may not end up making sense, but it's something that needs to be assessed.

NYRB/RSL are clubs that I don't completely trust because there's a lack of a recent track record. RSL produced a bunch of players a number of years ago, but hasn't done much recently. NYRB has been pretty good through the years of bringing through young players, but they don't ever have much academy talent. I wouldn't be totally convinced that the player will rot, but I also would probably prefer they go to Europe.

I'm not putting any trust into the newer clubs without any developmental track record (LAFC, Miami, Nashville, Cincinnati, Minnesota). They could end up being good environments, but I need to see the results before I believe signing with these teams is a good idea for a top young player.

Clubs like Colorado, Orlando, Houston, San Jose, New England that are perennially bad and don't have the biggest budget to work with are clubs where I wouldn't trust would be good environments for a top young American, but I can also see how it would work.

Bigger clubs like LAG, Seattle, Atlanta, NYCFC that have bad/questionable track records are clubs I'd certainly advise against signing with.

Columbus and SKC are situations I'd be conflicted about. I think Columbus has great potential to be the next FCD/Philly Union in this area because they don't attract big names, they are very well run almost every year, they are great judges of talent, but they just don't seem to have much use for their academy. I wouldn't trust them now, but I think they are a club we might eventually regard in 5-10 years as good in this department. SKC is very similar, and I think they actually have the talent in their academy (more so than Columbus), but as long as Vermes is there, how can you trust that guy's ability to develop academy players?

Portland is a complete joke on this front. Terrible academy, no record of bringing through academy players. The owner fights on twitter with people about their usage of American players. I'm not convinced they'll produce a relevant player anytime soon where the discussion comes up if the player should sign in Europe or MLS.

DC and Chicago are two odd situations IMO. Very poorly run clubs, but they do produce some talented academy players. DC actually has given minutes to some young players through their history (Hamid, Najar), but they recently failed with Durkin IMO. The coach is unanimously looked at as a complete joke. I wouldn't be shocked if a top young American gets a platform there, but its not a stable situation where I'd advise that they should sign with instead of Europe.

Chicago has been just as unstable of an organization in recent years. Their best academy products didn't even want to sign with them, they were eliminating youth teams. The new regime has come in and said the right things about developing academy players. The new regime has a very good track record elsewhere in that respect. The conditions are there for success, but how can you trust this club with developing a top young American at this point? I don't think you can.

I believe I covered all the American MLS clubs. I think what its a matter of is can you trust that the player will get a chance to prove themselves. That should be the only ask. If the player fails, they fail.

 

This is completely missing the point, and I know it's one sentence, but it's something I vehemently disagree with you about, and I think it speaks to how different our mindsets are on this issue.

I think you believe youth players and development are a complete crap shoot, there is no point making any assessments until we see them in pro football, and then we root for whoever comes through.

I view it very differently. I believe there are clear determinations that can be made about the ability of players, and the potential they have.

It is true that some improve certain skills and others don't, but we aren't talking about anything huge. By a player's mid teens, they have a pretty set skillset. It's unlikely to ever change that much beyond that. It's at the margins, refining skills, making them more consistent, getting more game reps, eventually playing more and more against your peers age-wise as you get older. Thats how a lot of the improvements come. It's not a wild spin of the wheel where the list of players is on one spoke of the wheel, a different skill that will become world class is on the other, and there's no point in making any judgements until we see what the development fairy decides will happen.

Some hugely talented players will never succeed, despite all their talent or perceived talent. That will always happen, and some will succeed, despite all the obstacles. However, I find it so incredibly naive to think that all this stuff is a mystery, it's baked into the pie, and we just have to accept what the development fairy decides. I'd like it if everyone that is a fan of our YNT program would be as educated as possible on the players, and can give their own opinions on all these matters. It shouldn't be that we accept the results of decision makers, and the eventual results. It should be that everyone has an informed opinion, and speaks their mind.

I think what's an actual shame here is that the system with MLS has actually become too much of a crapshoot, and if you want to do any assessing of the players, it's probably best to put a disproportionate amount of weight on conditions for success. Things have improved, but this is still one of the biggest issues. I've started putting a lot of weight in conditions available for success because I see it matters in the results. It's a shame that it does. It shouldn't, and I think this is a large part of the issue.

 

Emerson Hyndman was frozen out by Bournemouth who has been in the Premier League ever since he signed there

 

Hyndman was frozen out by Fulham when he wouldn’t re-sign and he wasted a whole season there playing a few matches with their reserves. Which completely ill-prepared him for his move to the EPL.

 

Thank you! It might sound offensive, but MLS needs to know their place. Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Brazil, Argentina all know their place, and these countries all have much better track records of success in soccer than we do. There are a handful of leagues at the top level, and MLS isn't one of them. All the best players play in these handful of leagues.

I don't know if it comes from an belief about America's position in the world on most matters where we are one of the world leaders in more important measures of success than any other country, but soccer is one area where we are behind. If we want to catch up, MLS needs to have some more humility, and understand its place. Their money, facilities, brand names, locations don't matter. MLS is not a top league. It shouldn't view itself as anything more than a very glamorous (money, location, facilities) feeder league. Instead, it has this weird pseudo-vision of being a top league, even though they try to also openly subvert that idea at the same time with the league's mechanisms.

I don't think any of us believe that Europe is some wonderland where no player ever fails or gets screwed by the club, but the clubs that actually have an interest in signing young Americans do so because they think its an untapped market with cheap talent that they can eventually turn a profit on. They bring these kids in for some short-term sporting success, but most importantly to make the club money. These European teams in any of the top 10 or so European leagues that are bringing in young Americans all have a much better track record of understanding and maximizing the value of these assets (players) than any MLS team does.

 

The point was him saying MLS needs to still play their academy kids even if they know they’re not going to sign a HG deal, and sign abroad.

Trust me, Argentinan, Dutch, Belgian, Brazilian, Portuguese clubs would tell those kids to get the GTFO too.

 

Frozen out like how he made the Fulham bench or played in every game but 5 from December till the end of the season, played in 16 of those games, and was playing so well that he secured a move up to a Premier League team?

 

Hyndman had plenty of interest from top division teams before his final season with Fulham, go read his YA thread on here. Fulham knew he wasn't re-signing and started him a whopping 9 times out of 46 league matches. That's as many as starts as he had the previous season and he missed almost half that year with an injury. They were extremely bitter he was going to leave.

 

Stupid corporate branding aside, but if you're a very good prospect, I would not leave the Red Bull family.

 

Let's not pretend that MLS is some outlier. Fulham screwed over De La Torre. Hannover screwed Soto. Varzim screwed over Keaton Parks. Europe isn't some higher level panacea where every kid who flees MLS is a sure fire vastly better choice. The number of kids who flame out there is just as numerous as the kids who flame out here because that's soccer or any pro sport you care to name.

Did FCD screw over Johan Gomez because they signed Ferreria and Pepi first? They made a call. Maybe it was right or maybe it wasn't but it obviously affected Jonathan and he fled as well. Richards signs and is sold. Carrera leaves. Tomkinson stays with the Solar till he signed with Norwich. Che, is rumored to be the next home grown. Every player and every club makes choices and thankfully it seems MLS clubs are beginning to play more young players and sell them abroad when possible. We're all rooting for more deals like Scally to BMG.

But that's not going to happen immediately or overnight. It's going to be gradual as other American players like McKinnie, Reyna, Weah, De la Fuente, Llanez, make their mark and prove that Americans are worth the risk. We'd all like to wave our magic wands and it's perfect immediately but that's not how life works. There's failures and successes but at least it seems as though MLS is moving in the right direction.

 

GMAFB. Athletes do not stop adding skill in their mid-teens. Michael Jordan got cut from his JV high school team. Do you think Tom Brady knew how to read pro defenses at 16? Clayton Kershaw didn't develop his cutter until he was a pro. Tiger Woods was a weak putter when he first came on the PGA tour. They all got better through instruction, practice and determination to be the best at their sport. Getting bigger and stronger helps but it is exactly improving your skill set that sets the elite apart. I can't think of a single thing that people are finished products in their mid-teens except writing dumb crap on the internet.

Edit: spelling.

 

Parents are seeking out advice from some rando on the internet? Not happening.

 

It looks as if Chris Brady is the Fire's 5th keeper (they've had four keepers in their match day roster and he hasn't appeared yet), which isn't too unusual because he's 16, but this is another instance where you have to question if the player would be better off having waited more time to sign, and seen the situation when he was a few years older. He's clearly nowhere near the first team. You have to question how much he would even gain from being on a contract with the team when he's the fifth keeper.

It's not so much a criticism of how he's being used by Chicago now or stating he should be playing, but to point out a problem with the system. He still should've been able to play in the academy teams, train with the first team, play USL games on an academy contract (if Chicago had a USL team) without binding himself to the Fire until age 20.

Or there should be a rule that a contract goes until your 18th birthday, and not a day longer than that. I think that might be a good solution to a problem we see that some clubs don't develop a player well in their first few years, and when they could actually bolt at 18, they have to stay an extra two years because of a team option. A team option will almost always be exercised, as long as the player still has any modicum of value to the team.

We also have to put this on the players. They need to start negotiating contracts better. The clubs should have a responsibility once players sign, but these kids can't keep binding themselves for five years.

 

The rumors just keep flying around about Busio. Amazing what a Euro passport can do for a young player.

https://t.co/emtI80Xp6K

— USMNT Only (@usmntonly) July 23, 2020

 

This thread feels especially angsty about players signing with MLS clubs this year.

Guys — it's a long season. Pace yourself.

 

Consider it crap in relation to PSV. I just checked the PSV deep throat info and no mention of Busio whatso ever.
On top of that PSV is loaded with top quality midfielders.
Given what I saw yesterday and given the new PSV coach, he doesnot fit in the frantic play style of the new coach.

 

Not unusual, but the other 16-year-old goalkeeper is in Orlando. I can't find the story I saw in late June/early July, but it looks possible Chris Brady will be sent to Forward Madison.

 

Very good post. I would add that one of the top variables that makes projection soooo difficult is the variability in how much and where the change will take place. I think it is very fair to say that most level off/plateau quite a bit at some point. How flat the plateau is varies and when they begin the plateau varies. Add in the variability rates of physical maturity...size, speed, strength. Than also mental maturity (which ideally shouldn't plateau at all but increase with playing time) and it is pretty easy to see why so many can't miss prospects actually do miss.

Of course, there is also the luck of the draw....who has the right coach, who gets injured at exactly the wrong time, who has the player in front of them injured at exactly the right time etc.

 

Honestly, I find the whole signing goalkeeper thing inexplicable.

It's a rare young goalkeeper who can outperform a vet. They take longer to develop. Even if there is ROI in signing Chris Brady from Chicago's POV, it could be 10 years from now.

At least Brady gets paid now. And hopefully they get a USL team. But GK is probably one position I would de-prioritize from a signing perspective in MLS. There's tons of affordable, good GKs out there -- the Stefan Freis and Tim Melias. They last forever. They don't generally move overseas.

I'd spend my roster slots on defensive players who can be affordable plus defenders so I don't have to pay for them, and on attackers I could sell for a good chunk of change.

 

I find this discussion to be over the top on both sides.

I do not put the blame on the clubs in these situations. It should lie squarely with the league and its structure.

• We are signing kids way too young. Players that aren't close to the first team should not be signed to first team deals. If you need to pay a 15/16 year old big money on a USL deal to keep him, that's fine. But a kid that is a few years away from being a integral first team player shouldn't be signed to a first team deal.
• Contract lengths are ridiculous with clubs (league) having too much power with option years. There is a reason Euro leagues have maximum terms for players under 18.
• Not enough games in MLS. With Cup competitions, Euro teams can play 60 games in some years. MLS doesn't come close to that. With the amount of matches in a Euro season, there is more opportunity for youngsters to break in.
• Lack of overall pyramid in US. Really only 3 divisions and most MLS clubs have 2 teams in these 3 divisions. When a pyramid has many levels to it, appropriate loan deals are vital to placing young players at the right level. Loan terms also ensure that a young player integrates into a club and becomes part of the culture. Yo-yoing a player between an MLS roster and USL roster each week, is not a way to develop. They need to be playing week in and week out at a level that challenges them, but doesn't overwhelm them.
• HG territories!!! Its been discussed ad nauseam on here, but it really does screw many kids just because of the zip code they grew up in.
• Playoff structure. While we find the MLS playoffs exciting, it limits the risks a club/coach will take with an unproven youngster. There are no mid table teams that are not going to win the league and not going to get relegated, thus having plenty of matches to give chances to young players. If you are fighting for a playoff spot up until the last week of the season, you are going to play proven players.
• Style of play for the majority of teams. Outside some freakishly athletic kids, the MLS is too transitional to break in players in certain positions. Central midfield players that are tidy on the ball, but less athletic aren't attractive in a 90 minute match of transitions.
• Very little history of US player transfers. Until the market opens up and US players start receiving legitimate offers in the $1M - $6M range, the league/club/coaches aren't persuaded to put young players in the shop window.
• Season Length. MLS runs what is essentially an 8 month season for the teams that play in MLS Cup. It is significantly shorter for those that don't make the playoffs. Compare that to typical 10 month seasons in Europe (yes there are exceptions) where they are in a training/match environment for more time each year. That environment can't be replaced by months of only training.

While its easy to point the finger at a particular club or coach, which is fine to do in certain situations, there are just so many more things stacked against a 16-19 year old professional in the US. We have to remember these things when getting frustrated by specific situations.