Thanks DCU... Now what was I getting at? Not quite sure where I was going with that originally but we could go here since you made the important insight that Norway had the same chance (1 in 3) of drawing Sweden or Denmark that Germany did. In addition to that 1 in 3 chance, Norway (like the US) had a 50-50 chance of drawing North Korea. So their odds of being drawn into a group including North Korea and either Sweden or Denmark was (1 in 2) times (1 in 3) or 1 in 6 = 16.7% Germany's chance of a similar group, as mentioned, was zero thanks to the committee ruling sending North Korea to Group B. So the chances of being in a group with 3 of the top 6 ranked teams in the world break down like this: US: 33.3% Norway: 16.7% Germany: 0 Another way of looking at it: there was a 50% chance of a group with 3 of the top 6 teams in it, and if there was it would either be with the US in it or Norway. On the other hand, there was a zero % chance that Germany would be in it. I think I'm still upset about it.