World Cup Confidence pool/picks 2026

hmm... maybe, but interestingly the 2022 WC had more blowouts in matchday 1 than matchday 2 as well as more upsets in matchday 1.

I think nerves will be less of a factor for top teams in the first game of this WC because there is that added margin for error. This WC is a marathon, not a sprint. To some extent the 32-team format was also a marathon, but it was also very possible to lose it if you had a bad start.

 

LMAO

 

Switzerland vs Qatar, Germany vs Curacao, and Argentina vs Jordan are the big locks for me.

There's a ton of fun games that I would love to see that have no favorite. Japan vs Sweden, Norway vs Senegal, Czech Republic vs South Korea all seem very fun and even to me.

 

I've seen a lot of people pick Argentina v Jordan as a sure bet, but I dont think its anywhere close to being the locks that are Germany v Curacao, or even Switzerland v Qatar.

Jordan are actually one of the best Asian teams currently, and they will likely sit back and defend against Argentina. I think the likelihood of a draw is much greater than people want to admit.

 

Most Confident:
1. Germany beats Curacao
2. Spain beats Cape Verde
3. Switzerland beats Qatar

Least Confident:
1. Canada vs Bosnia (really could go either way)
2. Netherlands vs Sweden (Very close)
3. England vs Croatia

 

the truth is it’s Argentina’s last game, and if Argentina is already through with 6 points by then, they might field their second team and rest players, and maybe not go for it hard.

 

Belgium vs New Zealand is going to be a lot closer than you think. Belgium is in huge decline and New Zealand is better than people think. Because New Zealand is in Oceania, they haven’t been tested properly. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends in a draw.

 

I want to say a few things about overrated and underrated teams:

Overrated:
1. Belgium (they’re in huge decline, and Rudi Garcia is NOT a good coach. I’m not confident they top their group and fancy Egypt to top it).
2. Netherlands (Koeman is not the best coach, and they can get easily outmatched by better tactical teams.
3. South Africa (A lot worse than people think)
4. Paraguay (Very disorganized and are not as good as people think)
5. Iran (Have really been in decline. Azmoun and Taremi are not in form right now, and they don’t have Queiroz coaching them anymore.

Underrated:
1. New Zealand (rarely regularly tested but are very organized, and I think many people underestimate them)
2. Japan (many people fancy them, but I think they’re not being given enough credit. Might be Top 10 in the whole world)
3. Sweden (have really improved under the new coach and they were missing several key players in their playoff round.)
4. Australia (this is the best Australia I’ve ever seen since their golden generation in 2006. Managed very well and extremely organized and structured. I think they advance. Maybe very comparable to 2010 Australia, if not even better.)
5. Egypt (well organized and have some good players)
6. England (on paper they’re amazing, but I think they’ve really improved on the field since Tuchel took over from Southgate. Serious World Cup contenders.)
7. Ecuador (Don’t underestimate them. They’re very fast, have chemistry, and well organized. Finished second in CONMEBOL qualifying.)

 

The overrated/underrated really depends on the source.

Fifa rankings ?

Pundits ?

Fans & Big Soccer community ?

Oddsmakers ?

People who know nothing about soccer ?

Because those are all very different things.

 

Based on recent qualification results, the opponents they played, their coaches and the coaches’ historcal records, the teams on paper, and just how they look in the games.

I don’t give FIFA Rankings much wait at all.

 

I don't think there's a single soul left on earth that overrates Belgium, not even their own fans

 

I compared my ranking system to FIFA to determine the top 10 most underrated and overrated teams at the world cup. I show the difference between the 2 rankings.

OVERRATED BY FIFA

1. Curacao -45
2. Haiti -27
3. Qatar -26
4. South Korea -26
5. Panama -19
6. Iran -19
7. Saudi Arabia -17
8. Iraq -16
9. Belgium -15
10. Czechia -13

UNDERRATED BY FIFA

1. Jordan +22
2. Cape Verde +22
3. Paraguay +17
4. Norway +15
5. South Africa +14
6. DR Congo +12
7. Japan +11
8. Austria +11
9. Canada +9
10. New Zealand +9

 

Generally, I always have low confidence in the French (kidding, of course...)

But, I *am* confident that mighty France will (at best) draw with -- and quite possibly LOSE to -- Senegal in their group opener. Sarr, Mbaye, Camara and others know their Ligue 1 teammates well and will give France a good fight. Control Mbappe, and Senegal has a chance.
I'm also confident that Norway will overcome France to decide the group. Senegal to advance...barely!

 

I never trust us against african opposition We often fail or at least struggle against them, so despite our clear advantage on paper, I agree with you, I see us losing points against Senegal haha

I say this by memory so I could be wrong on some but 21st century WCs we lose to Senegal in 2002, 2006 we struggle to beat Togo in the last group match which was super important for us, having only 2 points at the time. Then we lose to South Africa in 2010, we struggle to get rid of Nigeria in 2014’s R16 (and should have gotten a red card honestly), and lose to Tunisia (should have been a draw but the struggle idea remains) in 2022.

So let’s say I walk in with humility lmfao

 

I was working the broadcast out of Yokohama in 2002, so I well-remember the loss to Senegal in their opener. But I trust France will earn more than ONE point in the first round...just get through the group stage, and (with all that talent) you might win the WHOLE damn thing! Bon chance!