Discussion in 'World Cup 2018 - Russia' started by NickK, Dec 2, 2017.
lol, that's BOLD.
I was correct about Argentina conceding in every single match of WC.
I was somewhat close with my first twi predictions.
Last two could still come true, probably not because Spain is up against Croatia in quarter finals so one of them will be wrong, if not both.
Denmark will beat Croatia. Croatia has yet to show me they can outwork the Danes. As Russia showed today, work overcomes talent most of the time.
I predicted Russia to upset Spain, by the way:
That's the biggest lie, like, ever.
Not really. Germany was able to combine both in the last few World Cups, and this is why they were successful. Muller and Schweinsteiger were two of the only three players to cover more than 15km in a single match in 2010. This time, they simply were physically unable to. This time the Germans were even outworked by a Korean side that were leggy for the entire tournament.
Australia outworked France and would have drawn if it hadn't been for a questionable VAR decision.
Switzerland outworked Brazil in the opening match and got a draw.
Iceland outworked the Argentinians and got a draw. They compensated for their far inferior offensive threat.
Japan outworked and outlasted a far more physically gifted Senegal and got the draw.
A hard-working Morocco side came within a whisker of beating Spain even with very little goal threat.
Data on that is clear dude.. naming few exceptions doesnt make it false, plus those are examples with bunch of ifs and draw is not a win...
i cant take you serious
I predicted the draws between Iceland and Argentina, Switzerland and Brazil, and Russia and Spain. Almost nobody was predicting these results.
I am saying that usually a talent gap can be overcome by a vast advantage in workrate. This is what happened in 2002 for the Korean team which simply ran their opponents to death. If there isn't a sizeable gap in workrate, the more talented team will usually win. Of course the team that seldom loses will be the team that can combine both. Guardiola's sides are the ones that actually do combine both given time.
Yeah, work rate to bunker 11 on defense.
Can they use that work rate to play less cynical and attack more ? No.
It's a lot tougher to create than to destroy.
Korea 2002 at least had some semblance of quality teamwork going forward.
That simply aint true.. if work rate mattered then you or me or someone else who is willing to run more be in those squads and not professional footballers.
Let me guess you also said that germany will draw mexico, that belgium will draw tunis, that spain will draw iran, etc? You must be filthy rich from betting with your absolute understanding of football..
Football is unpredictable, to prove that just lay down your predictions for remaining fixtures of 1/8 finals so we can laugh at them at the end...
You mentioned japan, so they will draw with belgium?
Willingness is only valuable when one has done the right preparation, of course. Denmark clearly dominated the second half of this match, and you could say their defense in the first half was equal to the far superior offensive class of Croatia.
I actually hadn't watched Mexico or Germany for a while before this tournament, but I could tell you after the first match that Germany would probably have a hard time advancing and if they hadn't luckily beaten Sweden due to a non-call, they would have been out before their final group match. As for those other matches, I don't see why you would suggest that I would predict Belgium to draw Tunisia and Spain to draw Iran, as neither Iran nor Tunisia are capable of outworking Spain enough to compensate for their clear lack of talent.
Of course one cannot predict luck. But not many predicted this match between Croatia and Denmark would go to penalties, right?
OK, I'll show you what I predicted on my Predictor app after all the matches are played. Then you can compare these to the predictions you have made assuming you have used this same app.
Is this a trick question? There are no draws in knockout rounds, but you knew that I imagine.
Yes, they won, but it wasn't for outworking the Danes. The Danes had the better tactics and they defied the odds by outworking the Croatian team.
Actually, matches that go to PKs are officially recorded as draws.
Well, if you're going by this system, the Danes didn't lose to a far more talented Croatia. So it was a moral victory at least.
As for Belgium vs. Japan, I'll make my predictions when the lineups are announced. I'll post a screenshot of my prediction after all R16 matches as long as Sexy Beast agrees to post as well.
Dont shiw me predictions later.. tell me now what teams will compensate for their lack of talent by outworking favorites
Wil japan do it? Will russia do it vs croatia in quarters?
Just put it here so we(i) can laugh later.
If russia is capable of outworking spain (by your definition) then they clearly can outwork Croatia for which you thought aint going to advance in first place, right?
Yes, officially they didn't lose.
I never gave a definition of what it means to outwork the opponent, but it is not simply a matter running further than your opponents. It is a matter of using energy efficiently and being able draw on that energy at crucial parts of the match and being able to maintain pressure on one's opponents for extended durations. Only Denmark was able to sustain such pressure for much of the second half. I feel Russia's and Denmark's tactics better suited the conditions, though of course either team could have won today. Nevertheless, the fact that each team managed to take their matches to penalties means that they overcame superior talent through very tenacious defending.
In the match against Spain, I was also figuring in the fact that Spain had three difficult group matches whereas Russia only had one along with the fact that the loss of their manager on the eve of the tournament probably caused some to have some less restful nights.
Itt was clear during most of the second half that Croatian players were making lots of exhaustion errors such as making errant passes, failing to keep balls from going out of bounds, etc. Denmark was pressing them very well, and I think if they kept up the pressure, they would eventually have scored, but when it started looking like overtime was likely, they took their foot off the accelerator with the hopes of recovering the energy to deliver the knockout blow in extra time. The run by Delaney would not have happened earlier in the match, but the reason he was able to make it was probably due to better physical preparation.
It's better using the Predictor app, because this way we can make it a contest. And this way, I will also have opportunities to laugh at you if your predictions aren't as good as mine as a whole.
Dont you think that was important.. what youve explained has nothing to do with outworking at all
I am not using it, aint going to use it and there is no reason to laugh at me if my predictions are wrong because i am not claiming to know stuff with certainty (like you do). Football is unpredictable in terms of knowing the end result, period. However, i am pretty accurate with predictions of what we mighty roughly see on the pitch. That way i predicted exactly the same type of game by Spain and Russia, but whether Akinfeev makes 3 briliant saves or not is out of my mental capacities to predict.. id say i am 85% right with my expectations, which is damn impressive and fine by me so far.
If you want to prove your theory(hypothesis) of outworking to be correct, you need to come out and openly share your predictions with short text of why is that so, with whole community, and then do it cirrectly, beforehand, for several games in a row and i and others my take it serious, till then you have nothing but potential luck in a guessing game and you are just deluding yourself that reasons you thought it will unfold that way is the actual reason why it happened.
I made no such silly claim. I predicted the outcome without explicitly using the phrase "I predict X will beat Y". The justification for my prediction was stated, and I explained to you that it didn't turn out to be an outlandish prediction based on how the match turned out. I am fairly certain well more than 80 percent of predictors would have had Croatia winning easily over Denmark. But if you ask them to state their reasons for their predictions, they might talk about things such as how big the clubs its players are playing for. But my predictions are more reliable because they rely more on my observations of what athletes are physically capable of doing at any given point in time assuming that everyone is giving near full effort (which admittedly is sometimes a questionable assumption). Ideally my predictions would also consider whether temperature and pitch conditions are amenable to a team's preferred style of play, but of course I don't have access to all such information, so my estimation of the impact of some of these factors are based on guesswork on my part.
You claimed to be correct 85 percent of the time. Is this win/lose/draw predictions? Describe what figures into your predictions. As for the match between Denmark and Croatia, I felt it would be a very close match, but that Denmark would edge it because of their superior workrate and physical conditioning.
One prediction I will make is that Perisic will probably not have a good match in the quarterfinal. He was totally knackered in this match.
Of course you don't have to take me seriously if you don't want to. It doesn't concern me at all.
Yeah, lets ignore 40 other games that happened and you missed in your predictions.
This is a textbook example of a confirmation bias. You take you correct predictions as an evidence of your beliefs to be true and you ignore all others that contradict them.
And no, i am not trying to be an asshole not believing in your methods, but you are an asshole for not cooperating.
I might believe you if you prove yourself right and the way you prove yourself right is that you write down your next predictions here with the reasons why you think that will happen.
I will start first if thats what you want:
Brazil - Mexico:
Mexico is bad at defending when they are the ones that attempt to lead a game (when they have possesion like vs Sweden), but they can be tough if they sit back and play on counters like vs Germany. This is Brazil so i expect no different approach by them than vs Germany. That game Ochoa was magnificent as well as Gallardo and they had some luck so if Brazil produces the type of perfomance that Germany did, i dont think they will get lucky enough again to not concede.
Brazil tends to start really slow in a game and then they speed up later on. They are not immune on counters, especially not against flashy wingers like Lozano (who might be injured, not sure) so Brazil could concede similar goal like Germany.. Neymar hasnt been at his best but he also doesnt seem to care that much as long as they are winning. He still has confidence so i think he might finally explode today.
Mexico is bit shaked by that loss so they might be mentally unstable, tho they have Marquez who seems to be an incredible leader.
I predict slightly boring game at the begining unless something major doesnt happen (major defensive mistake, superb goal). Brazil will have majority of possesion, but they are not obsessed by it so Mexico will have its fiar share as well (60-65% for Brazil) unless they go for full park the bus tactic which i think they wont, no reason to do so.
First half might end up 0-0 then second half will be full of highlights as Brazil turns the speed up. I see them scoring for 1-0 then Mexico getting more and more offensive and then eventually concede 2nd goal and towards end Brazil's substitute getting third. They have immense attacking firepower.
So 3-0 for Brazil (0-0 halftime)
Of course, this is the thought process that goes into my predictions and it could be completely wrong if for example Guardado score a wonder goal in 14th minute and they successfully park the bus for the rest of the game with Ochoa saving everything, but thats the unpredictable part of football,
now i want to see your thought process for upcoming fixtures. I dont care about previous correct or incorrect predictions. If you are doing something right, you will manage to replicate the sam success rate from now on.
These were my predictions for KO.
So basically i didnt predict Germans downfall (nobody did), Croatia's 1st place and Japan instead of Senegal (was pretty close tho), everything else correct