World Cup 2026 - Variable Pricing Speculation

I'm going to start a new thread because the volume of pricing "what if's" is deafening on the main ticket/accommodations thread. Mods: Feel free to delete this thread if you think it's a duplicate.

Better yet: I hope no one reads this thread. Forget about just how high prices will be because that's just how it will be in U.S./Canada. Spend your time finding the right hotel(s). Plan accordingly.

 

Are you buying tickets to games in Mexico? If not, I'm not sure there's a reason to buy tickets now. The reason in past WC is that you'd have the chance to get a great game - ARG/MEX or a QF - at a price much lower than market demand, without the small chance your ticket from a third party gets cancelled and you're shut out of the stadium. You've always been able to get a ticket to those great matches...just not always at a good price.

This time FIFA is celebrating that you can buy tickets at market prices on their website, whether it's FIFA's "dynamic pricing" or a reseller using an official channel now. And FIFA is even taking a cut of the resale price. So the only thing remaining is to see "market prices" starting in October, which should be astronomical and - more importantly - not much of a discount over what you will pay in December or March or June. More likely at a premium price when comparing all matches and all tickets - that's what the pros do.

You actually have to want to play the game, hoping your M34 ticket bought next month turns out to be Argentina vs Portugal and not Slovenia vs Cape Verde. No different than going to the casino. But the resellers play the game way better than I do, so for me to buy now I'm statistically likely to lose out. Risk management is better spread over tens of thousands of tickets vs. the maybe 200 tickets I could afford to float for 6 months.

Best bet this time will be the resellers, either via FIFA's market or one of the usual suspects. Main exception should be supporter's tickets. Oh, and the VVIP tickets - those are always well priced.

(I'm also curious about Cat4 tickets. But are U.S. stadiums going to have the atmosphere that justifies watching a match though a telescope?)

 

TL;DR: Prices for general tickets this fall are likely to be higher than their equivalent in June. If you have the patience and nerves to wait, buy a seat later. If you can get a supporter ticket, of course, do so for many reasons. Last 3 paragraphs provide recommendations.

None of this applies to matches hosted in Mexico - if you're going there, same rules from previous World Cups apply.

The following is pure speculation, other than my personal experiences buying tickets.

FIFA is new at this "Variable Pricing" (their term) thing, and so are many of us purchasers of World Cup tickets. In the past you wanted to get tickets early before they "run out", and you didn't want to pay scalpers as the prices for good matches would be higher than what FIFA would sell you a ticket for. Right?

New world this time. I'll share my experience buying Stanley Cup (ice hockey) playoff tickets the last two years because I believe that FIFA will largely follow this pattern, although it won't be an exact match given the unique interest by total-non-fans to this "once-in-a-lifetime" event (that happens every 4 years....) I've also been to more than my share of big sports events in the U.S. but hockey is my most recent and detailed experience. I have unlimited funds and unlimited time and an appetite to get the best deal. It's not a healthy combination.

First, a team selling tickets tries to create scarcity. That's easy for each team as they have a built-in fan base for ~85% of their seats (note: this does NOT apply to most baseball teams) and the vast majority purchase playoff tickets when offered. However...to get a "loyal customer" discount you have to buy all the games, and all 4 playoff rounds, in advance. You get refunded if your team loses before the final. But it is a fixed price for each round, which goes up in price very quickly as your team advances. (Think: $250, then $400, then $600, then $1200. Actual examples available.) Unlike FIFA with just 4 price categories, most teams have about 15-20 categories of seat pricing, although actual seats in each categories rarely change (also unlike FIFA.)

The majority of remaining "scarce" seats go on sale to everyone at the same time, at a significant markup to the fixed prices above. 25% higher, sometimes more. Not surprisingly, those seats don't sell out immediately as they are priced above what the market will bear - we know this because the team sold those ticket packages above at market prices while calling it a "discount". Even in the final championship round you'll see dozens or even hundreds of unsold tickets - the scalpers won't even touch them. Different markets have different hard-to-sell seats - sometimes it's the best seats, sometimes the "mid-range", sometimes it's actually the cheapest seats.

Meanwhile the resale market heats up. The resale market always start out with highest prices as there's no urgency to sell. But in my experience tickets these days are so overpriced that even in the resale market you won't see most tickets actually sell for much more than what the team is asking for in those remaining seats. (Ignore the idiots listing $200 nosebleed seats for $1500 - they never sell.) Teams have been quite good as estimating demand based on the day of the week (Friday/Saturday are best), the opponent, and of course the sale of tickets in the previous round or the previous playoff year. These teams are, in effect, the new scalpers. Just like FIFA will be in 2026.

There are actually peaks and valleys in resale prices leading up to a game. All of these pricing changes are by resellers; very rarely would you see the team change their prices so often. Prices are higher immediately after the previous game (home or away). Prices move significantly more (as a %) for expensive seats than for the cheapest tickets. Higher after a win than a loss. They are higher the afternoon on the day before a game; they'll drop later that evening. Prices will slowly decrease on game day in my home market, but will rise 1-2 hours before a game on weekends. If you can play chicken, prices drop quickly in the last hour before the game starts. And continue to drop after it starts. (I doubt FIFA will resell tickets after scheduled kickoff.) Most games have inventory (like...0.25% of capacity) at the start of the game...not always. Don't get caught out....

In the middle of those pricing moves in the resale market, a team will release some additional tickets for sale. Sometimes saved for players/opponents/VIPs, sometimes it's an actual strategy. In general, the quantity is less than 3% of total capacity. Often just 1%. Usually about 4-6 hours before the game, sometimes earlier. But those prices can differ from the seats sold a few days earlier, often downward because the team still hasn't sold the original "scarce" seats as prices were high. This might be a point where you'll see those remaining seats reduced in price. Of course, if there was a "sell out" (no team-offered seats available for sale) these last-minute seats might be priced higher. Not happening too often these days.... Notice that this is the only time that there is "dynamic pricing" by the team itself where a ticket was $400 one minute, $350 the next minute, and back to $400 an hour later. And in most cases the few tickets remaining from the team go fast enough that there's no inventory in that price category left to change again.

In most markets, you'll see the reseller market prices hover well below what the team is selling their inventory at. I think I bought 3 game tickets (out of 26 the last two years) from a team directly, as I found team prices too high. In Vancouver 16 months ago the team was initially asking double the price for similar seats from resellers - they of course adjusted prices to ensure most of their tickets sold.

I bought about 80% of tickets on game day when I found a decent seat at a price I didn't expect to drop (much). Maybe half of those were within 2 hours of game time. The other 20% I bought in advance if I was flying across the continent or believed that a Saturday night ticket wasn't worth the risk. I'd be happy with a similar split for this World Cup, although I'd prefer not to be buying tickets while at the bar pregame when I'm on the road. Maybe World Cup tickets won't be like other sporting events in North America, but it sure looks like FIFA is adapting to the local culture rather than the other way around. Time will tell.

Most importantly to know - games rarely sell 100% of tickets any more. Last spring I sat beside an empty seat or two which was on sale an hour before the game. Three times in 10 games. Some economist said that teams can maximize revenue with 15% of seats unsold. Airlines try not to sell every last seat, and when they get close the price for remaining seats skyrockets. It is discouraging to be at the biggest event(s) of the year and seeing a seat go unsold by a team. Now it's not thousands of unsold seats (unless it's Ottawa or New Jersey) but certainly singles and pairs scattered throughout, numbering less than 100 I hope. And don't forget a pro scalper will eat a ticket if they think that, in the long run, it's better not to lower the price at the last second.

One important note: There is almost no face-to-face reselling. It's mostly done in online marketplaces (Ticketmaster, StubHub, SeatGeek, Viagogo, etc.). Even "friend got sick last minute" tickets are mostly listed online. Usually about half of the inventory on the team's official marketplace because that's where casual fans know to buy; the other half on third party sites. That varies greatly between cities. FIFA should be different as there are many printed tickets that aren't suppose to be resold; there should be a game day in person market in most cities (and especially in Mexico). Just don't expect it to be as popular in Canada or the U.S. as it is elsewhere in the world. (FWIW: I bought my Dallas Copa America 24 ticket in person. Not a lot of scalpers out at Jerry World given that 80% of original ticket buyers were disappointed Mexican fans.)

It would appear that FIFA is going to create scarcity by selling about a third of their tickets before anyone knows who will be playing. In general, the value of that ticket will increase once the teams are known. And since there's millions of "accounts" (comprised of hundreds of bots and maybe a few hundred thousand fans) eager to buy, it's likely that they can sell that amount of tickets...even if the prices are much higher than their current value. I'd suggest that FIFA will retain the same price for tickets to the same match in the same category through the first phase, in essence a fixed-price round. Consider it a "learning curve."

For the first two "lottery" rounds - which are actually First Come First Served, as the URL suggests - they'll be pricing every match like you know which teams are playing, and that they're teams with major interest from fans. Why? Because you don't want to leave money on the table, and if you price low and those tickets are sold quickly you're left raising prices after having sold a significant inventory.

It's not like they can't drop the price in future sales rounds. If they priced a Wednesday afternoon match in Kansas City too high not realizing it will be 98F in the sun (you can't pick your seats when buying from FIFA early on), then they'll come off-sale in October only to be reloaded in the November sales round at a different price. FIFA has actually been doing this for years by manipulating which seats are in Cat1/2/3/4. Now they can do it more transparently by just changing the price on your screen...although they'll probably continue to manage Category inventory as well. Only having four categories limits the changes in pricing; it's easier to manipulate a few hundred tickets in one small corner instead of tens of thousands throughout the stadium.

We do know one opponent for nine of the Group stage matches. Expect those tickets to be priced much higher than the rest, particularly Canada (small stadiums) and Mexico (large interest). With FIFA's variable pricing expect every single match to potentially have its own price point. For example Round-of-16 (+$) on a Friday (+$) in the afternoon (-$) in Philadelphia (-$) will price out one way in October, another in November (using October sales as input), and then different again in December when groups are announced and the opponents are guessed at. Then any last-minute ticket sales from FIFA will likely follow the prices on their own resale site, probably a little lower as FIFA likes full stadiums.

Now those hockey playoff tickets are sold a few weeks, or often a few days in advance of the game. FIFA is selling tickets months in advance. The timeline gets a bit skewed. I really doubt there'll be any discounting in October or November. There should be - we don't know who's playing. But since FIFA can simply wait and sell those tickets when they become more valuable in December, March, or even early June (imagine all those Cape Verde fans waiting for their visa applications to get approved!) there's no incentive to discount seats in these two lottery phases. They may have to accept that not all 1,000,000 seats will sell in October, but that's only a problem if they know they WON'T sell later on. This lottery thing provides good intelligence on that front - just how many Americans are interested in going to a match? Looking to buy a ticket on match day? That might be a bit late for the best price; 3-4 days out might be the sweet spot. Or not...this timeline is different than other sports events.

People have speculated that only a few people will win the October lottery. I doubt it. Everyone should win. Some will have the largest choice of matches and categories - "winning" early should allow access to scarce Category 4 tickets, or hopefully one of those precious $6700 Cat 1 Final tickets. But it could be that 99% of the first "window" winners don't buy tickets. And, if they got 20,000,000 lottery applications today, that'd be perfect for FIFA. Load up the next group of "winners", see how few tickets they buy. If priced perfectly, there'd be 1,000 seats left for the last "winners" in the lottery. And if there's 500,000 seats left after everyone had a chance...well there's always all those Mastercard card holders who might buy in November. Or perhaps there'll be a chance to lower prices.

In past WC there was always the concern that there would be "no tickets available" to the best matches. Which was true - demand at FIFA set prices exceeded supply, and scalpers were always asking more than FIFA. In this new world that should no longer be the case. If you will pay any price for a ticket, you will be able to attend any match you want. And you can buy it from FIFA who should have last-minute tickets if they've priced things correctly, and if not there's an official way to buy from resellers now. I suspect that the World Cup will be like most sporting events and actually fail to sell a few seats for most matches. Bargains are likely available. Question is: Is anyone willing to travel across the continent without a match ticket? Are you willing to pay $600 for a last-minute plane ticket after finding "a deal" on a $750 match ticket? There are only so many locals willing to walk up on game day to buy a $1000 ticket for a match few will talk about after the tournament. Kansas City QF in particular should be a target (although a Saturday match may draw more folks.)

One challenge is that each city has its own ebb and flow to its reseller market. FIFA knows none of this. There will be some mistakes made by FIFA as they attempt to sell their remaining inventory, particularly if they're selling tickets in the last couple of days before a match. That address info - you know, the address you faked in your 100 FIFA account applications - will be very significant in the data analysis coming out of the October and November windows.

Ticket drops were always the best way to get tickets for a World Cup match. You know the opponent, you know the exact seat, and the price hasn't changed from when tickets first went on sale. But with "variable pricing" this time the price WILL have changed to reflect demand. No more great deal - all you get from waking up at 2 AM to check for a few tickets from FIFA is...20 FIFA tickets alongside 3,000 resale tickets, all priced according to what they think they can get. At least check for drops at a reasonable hour, those 3,020 seats aren't going anywhere.

If there will be "lower" prices for matches with great teams, it should happen in the Round of 32. Supporters may skip this match after travelling to the first three, expecting a R16 and QF and maybe hoping for more. Locals may scoff at a "meaningless" first knockout-round encounter. If you're a 2nd place group stage finisher many folks would have planned for a different city, perhaps in a different region which now make travel more difficult. If "variable pricing" actually works, some of the R32 matches may be as low as the cheapest Group stage contests. If you're on the East Coast perhaps a train trip to catch 2 or 3 matches before heading home?

Finally, as others have pointed out ticket demand decreases as teams lose and go home. Fans resell their tickets, supporters at a profit (cheap tix), others at a loss (expensive tix). For big U.S. tournaments like an NCAA Final Four, the best day to buy a ticket is the day after the favourite team loses. I would think that would apply for this World Cup, but perhaps not for the Final in NJ. The majority of people who can pay $6700 for a match ticket don't much care who will be playing. But for Round of 16, QF, and particularly the SF I would hope that the ridiculous pricing we're about to see from FIFA will be severely undercut in their own reseller marketplace. The challenge is that the match closes to you ends up being a Mexico, a U.S., maybe a Brazil or Argentina contest and prices actually increase. And you can forget scoring a deal from FIFA in a last-minute drop - their drop will price right alongside whatever the resale market has determined. That's how everyone else does it. If that means that there's a few hundred empty seats in an 80,000 stadium...fine by FIFA.

So let's say I'm an Scotland supporter and my team is kinda close to qualifying for the first time in 4,000 years. I'm willing to go, and I have the budget to fly, drive, and stay all over North America for two weeks. First, I'd do absolutely whatever it takes to get supporter tickets. Not only are they the best way to enjoy a "once-in-a-lifetime" experience, but they'll also be the cheapest, "easiest" tickets to obtain. Cat3 if available. If Scotland doesn't have supporter tickets (because they've never qualified to require tickets), perhaps they'll have access to "Scotland TSTs" through FIFA. Those are worth buying in October if available, even at inflated prices. Your price is locked in - can't go up, can't vary based on city, day, or time of your matches - and are fully refunded if they don't qualify. While November prices may be a bit lower, there is a limited quantity of TSTs and those won't be resold as a group. What if Scotland plays England? You don't want to buy that on the resale market if you could get a TST. Third choice would be to wait until June, watch the crying over ticket prices from afar. Get your 2-star hotel booked, find those "cheap" airfares (Google "Westjet"), map out transit and pubs and pubs beside transit. (Remember these are Scots!). Once FIFA starts the last-minute window you should start to see prices slide a bit, and that would be the time to seriously look. If you have to shop for tickets before June, try the third-party reseller sites in, say, February. Or April. See if someone has died and their estate put tickets up for sale cheap. But know that there'll be 1000 bots looking for any true deals from FIFA or resellers so don't expect to stumble across some hidden deal. Maybe if you're shopping Facebook Marketplace and want to get stabbed in a Walmart parking lot. But not online for this World Cup.

The very last thing I'd do is mess around with daily drops and the first day of First Come First Served windows. Look at today - people queued up FOR AN HOUR to enter a lottery when there's no advantage to entering early, late, or anywhere in between. FCFS is going to be an outright disaster on first day, with potentially no benefit at all because of "variable pricing". Oh sure some of the prices will be lower than in October...that's like the furniture store having their 50% off sale after doubling the original price tag the day before. Just because it's "cheaper" doesn't mean it's a deal. But the queues for tickets will be insane. And even if you're an "insider" and know that tickets appear at noon in Switzerland every day, doesn't mean they'll be priced any less than the inventory sitting on resale sites...including FIFA's own site.

Best advice - don't spend a lot of time looking for tickets. Tickets will be plentiful, generally priced equally across time and (re)sale platform, and your investment in time, energy, frustration, and discouragement is not likely to produce significant savings. Use the info from those who compiled ticket prices to set a budget...no rush to spend that budget unless FIFA makes a "blunder" by offering general tickets WAY cheaper than the market and all at once so that even the bots can't keep up. One of those two things may happen, but not both at the same time....

 

Someone speculated that scalpers aren't likely to buy tickets in this October window. That's not how the big guys operate.

Entertainment tickets are a commodity. Some are more valuable than others. All expire after a certain point in time. And prices fluctuate. Wildly.

The folks who do this for a living aren't much different than Options traders on the stock market. They buy large volumes at varying times based on their analysis of the market. Some events you lose money on. Others you make money. Rarely do you sit out entirely. Always are you attempting to manage risk.

World Cup in the U.S. is kinda new, but there's plenty of info from past World Cups. Yes there's new unknowns like visas for foreigners and the economic situation and how many hours you'll spend in a security lineup (ask U.S. Open fans if they'll return to a men's final any time soon) but those are just risk factors that affect how and when scalpers invest in inventory, and how aggressive they will be in selling that inventory.

But unless the price tag is way off the charts, scalpers will be in there buying up tickets. For one thing, they've already sold some tickets and need to at least cover those sales. And they're expected to have some tickets, so they have to buy some...might as well be now not knowing what future phases will look like.

However, I would expect scalpers to be cautious and conversative in their initial purchase. This isn't a Taylor Swift concert, just another soccer game that comes along every year in one shape or form. Final tickets? Grab a few, but at $7K probably not as many as you'd like. But $700 for a Round of 32 match? Maybe leave that risk for later, focus on R16 perhaps?

They know tickets, and often know their local markets, just as well as stock traders. Both use analytics to plot everything from the weather and the month to how sports tickets react to an economic downturn. And what happens in Boston is definitely not the same as what happens in Miami.

Scalpers will be out in force this sales window. Maybe not as aggressive as they would be for annual events in North America, playing a bit safe. But they'll be there. One look at the current resale listings should tell you that.

 

Interesting about the weekend matches. In theory there's only a choice between two matchups as all groups are assigned to a venue now.

There's the possibility that European games will get an afternoon matchup (not the 7pm or 10pm slots) which may be the "good" matches, and which limits putting them in warmer stadiums? So Boston @ 4pm and NY/NJ at 7pm? Which makes M7 the non-Europe game? Or am I assuming too much? (The temp difference between Boston and northern New Jersey isn't going to be much.)

M11 should be a day game w/ roof. But M34 will hopefully be a night match - remember KC for Copa? M35 day match under the roof.

M39 vs M40 - in a perfect world the "better" team in M15 will stay in M39. Personally I'd take M40 for the shorter flight, but you're thinking that'll be the 10pm match? L.A. gets U.S. primetime...which would be a 4pm PT start, right?

I'd take M70 or M67, but yeah those make sense too.

Great idea.

Do you have a preference on which knockout stages you'd prefer - R32 vs R16 vs QF? Or is it, "Yes" to all?

 

Makes sense - just as I don't think prices will rise for most matches, I don't see them falling for most. If your team's matches are set for the Group stage (CAN/US/MEX), why not go earlier if given the chance?

If your tickets are on StubHub and they drop the prices to the FIFA October lottery prices right away, would you buy there or would you wait to try your lottery luck again in November? Any wild guess when FIFA's resale portal will open?

 

The problem is that as many as half the tickets bought from FIFA will be by people and companies who view tickets as financial products. Thankfully doesn't mean you or I have to....

 

But only if you're a university student and know 4 other people.

KC will show up for just about any matchup. Not 70,000-strong but you'd get a decent local audience.

Put that matchup in Miami or probably NY and LA and SF...the beer vendors would outnumber the paying spectators. And everyone there would get "private security".

 

We'll see in 2 weeks what the opening prices are. My speculation is that all four QF games will be priced as if they're Argentina vs. Mexico. They can lower the prices later to sell inventory; you can't raise prices on tickets you have already sold. But...we'll see. Never hurts to try. Plus there may be some matches that are a reasonable deal, thinking R32 and maybe R16? Matches you can't brag about being at but are higher priced than the Group stage, less attractive to the "I've been to the World Cup" faction going to one match.

Agreed, and I'll argue it'll be even easier two weeks before. Maybe not 4 days before, but certainly inventory won't be an issue this World Cup. Just the price....

 

Some initial thoughts seeing Day 1 pricing:

• Is this correct? To see Canada play at home only costs $65 (Cat1) or $55 (Cat2)? Ummm...someone doesn't understand Vancouver. At all. If there's a way to bank on prices falling (for the remaining Vancouver games) go for it. Meanwhile...the Canada matches (M27 & M51) seem pretty reasonable and worth a buy even though you know your Cat1 ticket purchased in October is going to be in the last row on the corner of the lower deck.
• I dunno...looks like "fairly" priced tickets, rather limited obscene prices. R32 tickets are a steal if you're local and not travelling last-minute. Would have loved to grab M73 or M81 at the "standard" price but those are premium cities and priced accordingly. Hope M85 stays at $440/$335; the Cat3/4 @ $160 is a license to print money if Canada can finish 1st in group.
• FIFA was very conservative with its initial variable pricing, as some predicted. There are a couple of cities with higher prices, the host team group games aren't substantially higher (Guadalajara M28 for the win!), there's no weekend premium that I saw. I would assume that will change.
• So...Final ticket prices too high, eh? Which match sold out first today? Unless Visa cardholders are universally suckers, somebody thinks $6700 is a good deal. And $4300 for a nosebleed seat is great. But...
• ...lots of good seats still available. I presume that's because all 1 million were loaded on Day 1. But...we'll see. Something tells me that there was some sticker shock, even with the rather reasonable prices.
• Would I buy a Cat2 ticket for big games? Is lower-deck worth $850 for the semi-final? For me, I'd be either Cat1 or Cat3. But as we get into May and June, perhaps there will be some good value Cat2. I'd love midfield Row 1 of an upper deck, but I'd be luckier to score a Cat4.
• There was a bit of code posted early today suggesting FIFA has a "Minimum Price" and a "Maximum Price" for each ticket - the maximum prices appear to have been charged today; the minimums were about half the maximum. Don't know if that's relevant but it's interesting if true. Also would suggest that FIFA is pricing "high" to begin, see who bites.
• I'm not sure I'm understanding the TST pricing. Does anyone know if the $900 is per match (i.e. the TST is $2700, double the likely price of the group ticket being sold in October) or is that a "Buy 2 games, get 1 free" pricing? (i.e. TST is $900 for 3 matches.) Would like to see which countries are in "Cat1" with premium pricing (BRA, ARG, hosts?), and which countries are basically "Standard Price" (e.g. $410 Cat1) x 3 games?

If you're looking to buy from FIFA direct, want to make plans early, don't care who you see...these prices aren't bad. But I think you'll do better once you know who's playing, and even better knowing where your seat will be. Yes you'll pay a little more than what we saw on Day 1, but not much. And you'll have a chance to find deals and discounts later on. Excl. ARG matches of course.

I'm actually excited to see market prices later on - hopefully some games at least 50% off. Should be able to get in for $150 and less. Tomorrow's resale portal shouldn't be an indication of future resale prices. And for the scalpers...great investment opportunity for host matches.