World Cup 2026 expectations poll

Because AI.

 

They aren't. It's a simulation (100,000).

We win the group 31% of the time.

Distribution of Points when we win.
3 - 0.03%
4 - 0.97%
5 - 9.60%
6 - 20.56%
7 - 43.07%
9 - 25.77%

Thus we achieve both 6+ points and win the group 28% of the time.

 

That’s really surprising bc you’d think the two events would correlate—I.e., scenarios where we get >5 points would be almost all group winning scenarios.

So assuming this is right (and who am I to argue with numbers?) what gives? One possibility is that the stats gods think that given the evenness of the group, teh group winning total is likely to be five.

Or maybe I’m thinking about this the wrong way. It’s more like this: If we exceed five points, then we have a good chance to win the group. But the chance that we get greater than five points is still only about 40%, which means that both together are inevitably lower because to% of the 5+ point scenarios have us not winning the group (maybe behind Turkey who’d get 7/9 or 6 and win on GD).

I guess another way to look at this is that the odds of us winning the group and not exceeding 5 points is only 3%.

 

First up I'm glad we're not just talking rounds, I don't like that approach to expectations because there's too much either randomness or factors outside our control.

Second, I think any rating system is going to underrate us a bit (PELE has us at 24) because we shat the bed in the Copa America and Nations League. I certainly can't call it unfair or inaccurate, but I don't think the team that lost to Panama twice is representative of who we are now. I usually look at all of these and think 'we could take most of the 5 or so teams ranked ahead of us,' including with this one (where we are behind, for example, Scotland).

So all that said, what are my expectations? I think we can and should break our points record for a group stage, so more than 5. I think I'd probably be good with 6, depending on how we get there, but I'm hoping for 7-9. At that point total, we should get a favorable match in the R32, where I would expect us to outplay that opponent (and hopefully advance). Beyond that, there's a lot of luck of the draw involved or a lucky bounce here and there.

And I expect us to do it with some style, which we've shown flashes of in friendlies against eg Paraguay, Uruguay, and Senegal. We only scored 3 goals in 4 games in 22, one of which was a lucky bounce in garbage time. I expect better this time around, hopefully at least double that (since I don't expect our defense to be lock-down).

At the end of the day, the US's goal in this tournament is the same as it ever was: win hearts and minds. I'm getting more optimistic we can do that as it approaches. I think some guys are going to come out of this as heroes.

 

I feel like there should be a panel like in the NCAA's where unbiased (is there such a thing) people rate the teams. They can use all of the PELE, FIFA and others as guides but also go through each team game by game. I mean if a team was playing a pure B team, if a team was at home but say Mexico had 80% of the crowd, a new coach came in and the turnaround was immediate etc then relying on results from a few years ago to rate a team may not impact how they play right now. I wonder if there's a way to look at betting to determine what people with money on the line think.

 

Well, how much can you trust anything else in that AI simulation when they've given the top chance of QF opponent to a team that isn't in the World Cup?

 

Just curious, how did AI come up with the following:

Quarterfinal Potential Opponents

• Italy (Group C Winner): Elo ~1945, ~35% chance

Last I checked, Italy is staying home this time around.

 

AI is 99.9% A and 0.1% I on a good day.
In order for Artificial Intelligence to be any good at anything you first have to have a good measure of intelligence which seems to extremely lacking in all current AI systems. I do not trust AI as far as I could throw the oversized buildings that house the data centers.

But we could meet Italy in a quarterfinal in 2030 or 2034 after we underperform at this WC.
But I do wonder if even getting grouped is truly underperforming as our team is the soccer equivalent of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and Mr. Hyde seems to be the dominate personality.

 

It's just a text generator generating text.

 

QF is the goal and a celebration if we make it. Round of 16 will be a "meh, why can't we get over this hump"

 

No idea. They have the talent to go to the quarterfinals or could go out in the Round of 32 with their defense. With an expanded field, depth will be important with the number of games. We appear to have more depth.

 

I’m going to go ahead and predict semifinal. Why not.

 

after about the best opening match we could hope for...no change.

 

Too early for a victory lap on that front since only one game but a promising start.

But the biggest thing I thought prior to the game is the narrative around the team was overly negative and in general the vibe has been overly down on our chances.

Part of that is I very much rate Pochettino as a coach but also this is the first time in a long time we’ve been mostly healthy. This group always looks much better when it’s our full first choice group and looks far worse when it isn’t because we don’t have depth.

It’s also the case that basically the whole starting lineup minus Ream and Freese plays for Champions League or Champions League aspiring team (or Europa League when it comes to Palace): Paraguay isn’t a bad team but they aren’t at that level lineup wise.

I’ll add that I think the homefield vibes have also been underrated because of how FIFA has treated the tournament. The crowd is just at an entirely different level compared to our typical home games.

But the real test for this team will be the round of 16 where we play an Argentina or Belgium.

 

After seeing Irankunda and Touré yesterday, my prediction is that Ream will go to the bench and Miles Robinson will start in his place. We absolutely need as much speed at the back as we can get to try to contain those guys.

 

Isn't trusty almost as fast and either left footed or so two-footed it doesn't matter? You may be right though as Trusty hasn't seemed valued with minutes in the pre tournament warmups. Could be he's Ream's backup though and didn't play because Ream was healthy while McKenzie and Miles did because Richard's was injured. I'll trust the staff on this as they have to have watched a ton of Socceroo footage and if they think Ream can handle it and scheme around possible speed match-up problems then I'm good. It's always easy to Monday morning quarterback but if Germany didn't expose him perhaps the Aussie's won't either.

 

I don't know how close Trusty is to MRob in speed, but Trusty isn't a slouch for sure. However, Miles seems to have the inside track to being the top backup CB to see minutes for Poch, which is why I think it'll be him in for Ream. But who knows what Poch will do. He may feel he can work something out to keep the runouts that I'm afraid of in check.

 

Having a 9 like Balogun is definitely a game changer in that regard.