What are your expectations for the USMNT at this home World Cup in terms of the final outcome, now that it's only four days away? Since 1994 the standard for the USMNT has been: - Not in final 32 (previously qualifying) = catastrophic disaster that sets back soccer - Final 32 (previously qualifying) = bare minimum expectations but a failure to not advance further - Final 16 (previously getting out of the group stage) = passing grade on a pass/fail scale - Winning the group (back when it was 32->16) = success - Final 8 (quarterfinals) = big success - Final 4 (semifinals) = probably not attainable unless hosting with the favorable draw that provides Unfortunately those expectations haven't changed much over the last few decades as the USMNT treads water The history of the USMNT, in one mostly frustrating chart. pic.twitter.com/KugivhsSxM— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 7, 2026 Put your money where your mouth is... the poll closes before game 2.
I'll go first: My standard expectations going back to 1994 is final 16 but since we're hosting I'll move it up just one notch to final 8. Talking heads have been saying for years that "the goal should be the semifinals if you're hosting" but that doesn't seem realistic. In reality I don't think anyone could consider the quarterfinals to be anything but a success.
My expectation is the quarterfinal. Home field, the core already having their learning experience WC, big name coach, some front foot talent and role players that bring some of that old school fight feeling, if ever there’s a World Cup to have expectations it’s now. Prediction as opposed to expectation might have gotten me to answer differently admittedly.
There's a reason I chose the word "expectation" over "prediction"... I also made sure to add "in terms of the final outcome" because there are no moral victories here... We can get plenty of excuses over the rest of a cycle but for both World Cup qualifying (which obviously we didn't have this time as hosts) and the World Cup itself, all that matters is the actual results. No one will care how that was or wasn't achieved a decade later... "Country X played some nice football in year Y" gets reduced to a color on a Wikipedia map.
1930: Won Group, straight to SF, lost 1934: Out in First Game (Rd16 KO) 1950: Out in Group (beat England, though) 1990: Last in Group 1994: 3rd in Group, L 0-1 to Brazil, despite being up a man after Ramos gets his skull fractured. 1998: Last in Gr. Harkes/Wynalda fiasco. 2002: QF. Only KO win in WC history for us, 2-0 over Mexico. If there is VAR, we are probably in the semis. 2006: Out in Group. 2010: Landy saves us late vs Algeria, out to Gjana late after winning Group for 1st time since 1930. 2014: R16 loss to Belgium in aet. No Landy. Come from ahead tie vs Portugal. 2022. Rd 16 to Netherlands.
We've never won more than one game in a WC group phase. That changes this time. Wins against Paraguay and Australia. Rotate the squad some against a Turkey team that needs the win, and lose that one. Win the round of 32 against somebody like Bosnia (I picked them just because I saw a simulation in which they were the opponent). Lose in the round of 16 to somebody better than us like Belgium. Overall, it will be viewed as meeting expectations and a positive event for growth of the sport in the country.
I’m almost right there with you, but for me, it’s 60-40 not 40-60. The thing that makes it so hard is the complete randomness of the team we will meet in R16. Tell me who we would be playing and I might change my vote. You might too.
I'm too nervous about the Spurs game to actually do work right now so I asked AI for some probabilities: Scenario 1: The USMNT Wins Group D Round of 32 Potential Opponents Bosnia & Herzegovina (Group B): Elo ~1580, ~18% chance Ivory Coast (Group E): Elo ~1695, ~15% chance Sweden (Group F): Elo ~1710, ~14% chance Senegal (Group I): Elo ~1725, ~12% chance Austria (Group J): Elo ~1740, ~11% chance Qatar (Group B): Elo ~1610, ~9% chance Round of 16 Potential Opponents Belgium (Group G Winner): Elo ~1920, ~58% chance Egypt (Group G Winner / Upset): Elo ~1715, ~14% chance Iran (Group G Winner / Upset): Elo ~1750, ~10% chance Germany or France (Group E / I Upset): Elo ~1850–1980, ~8% chance Austria or Algeria (Group J Upset): Elo ~1700–1740, ~6% chance New Zealand (Group G Miracle): Elo ~1510, ~4% chance Quarterfinal Potential Opponents Italy (Group C Winner): Elo ~1945, ~35% chance Mexico (Group A Winner): Elo ~1790, ~22% chance Netherlands (Group F Winner): Elo ~1915, ~18% chance Colombia (Group C Runner-up): Elo ~1960, ~12% chance South Korea (Group A Runner-up): Elo ~1785, ~8% chance Japan (Group F Runner-up): Elo ~1820, ~5% chance Scenario 2: The USMNT Finishes 2nd in Group D Round of 32 Potential Opponents Egypt (Group G Runner-up): Elo ~1715, ~45% chance Iran (Group G Runner-up): Elo ~1750, ~28% chance Belgium (Group G Upset): Elo ~1920, ~20% chance New Zealand (Group G Underdog): Elo ~1510, ~7% chance Round of 16 Potential Opponents Argentina (Group J Winner): Elo ~2120, ~62% chance Uruguay (Group H Runner-up / Group J Upset): Elo ~1910, ~16% chance Spain (Group H Runner-up): Elo ~2010, ~12% chance Austria (Group J Surprise Winner): Elo ~1740, ~5% chance Algeria (Group J Surprise Winner): Elo ~1700, ~3% chance Saudi Arabia or Cabo Verde (Group H Miracle): Elo ~1600–1650, ~2% chance Quarterfinal Potential Opponents France (Group I Winner): Elo ~1980, ~42% chance England (Group L Winner): Elo ~1995, ~28% chance Portugal (Group K Winner): Elo ~1965, ~15% chance Ecuador (Group E Winner / Runner-up): Elo ~1840, ~8% chance Morocco (Group I Runner-up): Elo ~1855, ~5% chance Ukraine (Group L Runner-up): Elo ~1810, ~2% chance
US vs B&H would be interesting, largest country vs fourth smallest, and another instance of multiple countries joining forces to gang up on us... From 342 million to 158 thousand 🌎 pic.twitter.com/fHumCMpIvp— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) June 8, 2026
Sorry China and India. You let the US be the population winner! Indonesia would be next but also didn't make it showing that having lots of people doesn't make you good.
The text generator appears to be running into some problems by the time we get to Quarterfinal opponents. I am hoping for a Italy or Ukraine matchup myself, but even with some of the teams actually in the World Cup, the group assignments appear a bit funky.
Head: R16 Heart: semis Who knows, maybe we’ll split the difference and make the quarters. I would like to see us win the group and exceed our historic peak of 5 points in the group (2010, 2022). Those last two seem much more achievable than a deep run, which has always struck me as a long shot given our defensive and goalkeeping shortcomings. But you gotta have hope, and I have … some.
Not quite. Most sites I've seen give us a ~75% chance of getting out of the group. Qualifying for a 32 team World Cup out of CONCACAF, on the other hand, is something we accomplished 6 times out of 7, or 86% of the time.
Pretty much the same as always, in that it heavily depends on who we draw in the Round of 16, if we don't crash out earlier. If we draw a Brazil ('94), Belgium ('14), or Netherlands ('22) type opponent, then my expectations is we go out in the Round of 16. If we draw a Mexico ('02) or Ghana ('10), that's more of a 50/50 proposition, but I'd set my expectations at quarter-finals at that point.
Based on a simulation using the PELE ratings, it's pretty unlikely we both win the group and achieve 6 or more points. Win the Group = 31% Achieve greater than 5 points = 41% The union of those two events = 28% It's doable.
So I took a couple of hours to ponder my vote. I really feel think the variance of our performance in this world cup is high. We could epically fail and we could go as high as the semi's. My initial probabilities are: Out in the group: 20% Out in the round of 32: 45% Out in the round of 16: 25% Out in the quarter-finals: 8% Out in the semi-finals: 1.9999% Out in the finals: .000099% World Champs: 9.999999999177334e-07% And I voted for a high (albeit unlikely) result: Out in the quarter-finals (8% chance based on my completely fictitious Empirical Bayesian Probs). Let's go!
I'm gonna be a math jerk. So, you give us a 2% chance to make it to the semi finals, but only a 0.0001% chance we win the semi-final game when we get there?
Yeah, I occasionally see charts of overall national team performances at the World Cup pop up on social media, and it annoys me when I look at the US on the list (9-8-20 with a terrible goal difference) and still see us dragged down by ancient history and the 1990s. Even though it ultimately doesn't matter if a US quarterfinal appearance is propelled by a bunch of wins or by 1-1-1 and then squeaking our way through with PKs, I'd like to see us get multiple wins in the group stage too.
Look at the teams we are likely to face posted above by xbhaskarx... You have to start multiplying the likelihoods for each subsequent stage beforehand. But... if we were to actually make it to the semi-finals then those events and their probabilities would be complete and the chance of success in the semis would reflect only the said head-to-head. Furthermore, the chance of us winning the entire World Cup would be substantially higher at that.