Pre-match: World Cup 2026 draw

Well, qualifying is over... except for repescagem. There are three draws coming up.

Thursday, November 20 UEFA play-off draw (7am Eastern)

These are the teams in the UEFA repescagem, competing for 4 spots
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_UEFA_second_round

Thursday, November 20 Inter-Confederation play-off draw (7am Eastern)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(inter-confederation_play-offs)

Friday, December 5 the World Cup draw (12pm Eastern)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw

 

UEFA play-offs teams

Pot 1
Italy, Denmark, Turkey, Ukraine

Pot 2
Poland, Wales, Czechia, Slovakia

Pot 3
Ireland, Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo

Pot 4
Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland

Basically 1 team from each pot will be drawn into a bracket. Pot 1 vs Pot 4 and Pot 2 x Pot 3 will play and the winners of those matches will face each other for a World Cup spot.

So, for example, you could get Italy x Sweden or North Macedonia (teams that eliminated them in the last two) and Wales x Bosnia. Then, if Italy and Wales win, Italy x Wales play for one spot.

 

Inter-confederation play-offs teams

Seeded: Iraq, DR Congo
Unseeded: Jamaica, Bolivia, Suriname, New Caledonia

The unseeded teams will be drawn into preliminary matches which will lead to a match with the seeded teams. The two teams from CONCACAF cannot be drawn into the same path.

So, a possible pair of matchups would be:

Jamaica x New Caledonia (winner faces Iraq)
Bolivia x Suriname (winner faces DR Congo)

 

The World Cup draw.

Here are the qualified teams:

Hosts: Mexico (Group A), Canada (Group B), USA (Group D)

The 9 best ranked teams will be seeded and drawn as cabeças-de-chave. I think seeding will be based on December rankings, if I understand correctly, and may be affected by the play-off results.

The current top 9 are Spain, Argentina, France, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium, Italy

Italy are in the play-offs, so that could complicate things, but Germany is in 10th right behind them, so they could take that last seed.

The other teams will be separated into pots by ranking, unless FIFA makes some last minute changes, with playoff teams in pot 4. Except for these playoff teams, teams from the same region will not be allowed to be drawn against each other (excepting UEFA which has 16 teams for 12 groups).

Qualified teams

UEFA: Austria, Belgium (S), Croatia, England (S), France (S), Germany (S?), Netherlands (S), Norway, Portugal (S), Scotland, Spain (S), Switzerland

CONMEBOL: Argentina (S), Brazil (S), Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay

CAF: Algeria, Cabo Verde, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia

AFC: Australia, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Uzbekistan

CONCACAF: Curaçao, Haiti, Panama (+ hosts: Mexico, Canada, USA)

OFC: New Zealand

That's 42 teams, the remaining 6 teams are from the playoffs.

Possible groups for Brazil vary from

Brazil, Morocco, Norway, Saudi Arabia
to
Brazil, South Korea, Austria, Curaçao

Of course, because of geographical restrictions, some draws are much likelier than others (I'm not sure Brazil even has a chance of getting two European teams for example). But we'll see after the playoff draws how FIFA sets the rules.

 

Correction about the playoff teams:

FIFA hasn't confirmed the format yet, and will only do so after the playoff draws, but it's been reported that the playoff teams will go into the pot corresponding to the seeded team.

So, for example, Italy being a Pot 2 group by ranking, means they will be in Pot 2 and whoever wins their playoff path takes that spot, whether it's actually Italy, or one of the other teams they're drawn against.

 

These are the playoff draws:

UEFA
https://ge.globo.com/futebol/futebo...minatorias-europeias-veja-os-confrontos.ghtml

Bracket A
Italy x Northern Ireland
Wales x Bosnia (winner hosts the final in this bracket)

Bracket B
Ukraine x Sweden
Poland x Albania

Bracket C
Turkey x Romania
Slovakia x Kosovo

Bracket D
Denmark x North Macedonia
Czechia x Ireland

Inter-Confederation (played in Mexico)
https://ge.globo.com/futebol/futebo...a-copa-do-mundo-2026-veja-os-confrontos.ghtml

Bracket 1
New Caledonia x Jamaica
Winner faces DR Congo

Bracket 2
Bolivia x Suriname
Winner faces Iraq

 

The pots and procedure have been officially announced.

Despite some reporting I mentioned above, all playoff teams will be in Pot 4, meaning Italy, Denmark etc., if they get through their playoffs, are Pot 4 teams.

For the FIFA playoffs, the draw will treat that spot as if it were from all the Confederations involved, meaning they cannot be drawn with a team from ANY of those Confederations.

Every group will have at least one UEFA team, but no more than 2 UEFA teams.

The draw will distribute the top 4 teams across both halves of the bracket. Spain and Argentina as 1 and 2 must be on opposite halves of the bracket, France and England as 3 and 4 will be on opposite sides of the bracket. Of course, they need to win their groups to avoid meeting earlier.

This time, the order of matches is pre-determined. Instead of drawing a place in the group for each team, they will automatically put the teams into slots in the order the pots are drawn (for some groups that means the seed plays vs. 2, 3, 4 in that order, for others it's 3, 4, 2 and so on.
Here are some links:
https://ge.globo.com/futebol/futebo.../potes-do-sorteio-da-copa-do-mundo-2026.ghtml

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments...cousa2026/articles/procedures-pots-final-draw

 

Pot 1: Canada (Group B), Mexico (Group A), USA (Group D), Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany

Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, IR Iran, Korea Republic, Ecuador, Austria, Australia

Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa

Pot 4: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, European Play-Off A, B, C and D, FIFA Play-Off Tournament 1 and 2

The constraints detailed by FIFA mean that certain possibilities are likelier than others (as is always the case when you have these restrictions).

Brazil is unlikely to have 2 UEFA teams in the group. (It's likely that the groups with 2 UEFA teams will all be groups with UEFA seeds, but it's possible that won't be the case.)

FIFA play-off 2 has teams from AFC (Iraq), CONMEBOL (Bolivia) and CONCACAF (Suriname). That means they cannot be drawn into a group with those regions. That leaves UEFA, CAF and Oceania. Since the teams from Oceania are also in Pot 4, that leaves only UEFA and CAF.

That means that one European seed will be guaranteed to have that play-off winner PLUS one UEFA team from Pot 2 or 3 PLUS one CAF team from Pot 2 or 3.

If you remember recent draws, there will be moments where, to avoid breaking the rules later on, they have to skip a group to follow the geographical restrictions.

For example, let's say England is in Group C.
Then let's say the first team from Pot 2 is Colombia. They would go in Group A, as expected (I don't think that would create any problems downstream).

Then let's say Austria is drawn next. In theory, they could go into Group B with Canada, since there's no geographical restriction. However, if you do that and later on there are no UEFA teams available to complete a group with the restrictions I mentioned, the draw would have to be reset.

So, to avoid that mess, if they do what they did in the past they will force that first UEFA team (or CAF team if one of those is drawn first) into the first group with a UEFA seed, so, England (Group C) in my example above. Then for Pot 3, the first CAF team drawn (or UEFA if it was a CAF team from Pot 2) would be forced into Group C to make sure there is a group in which the winner of Iraq/Bolivia/Suriname can go without breaking the draw.

 

So, what kind of draw is possible for Brazil?

The only real restriction for our group is we can't have a CONMEBOL opponent. Any other restriction would come from how other groups play out and if the draw needs to skip groups to avoid breaking the rules.

Probably anything from:

Brazil, Japan, Norway, Ghana

to

Brazil, Australia, Scotland, Haiti

or, if we do get 2 UEFA teams, unlikely as it seems, maybe:

Brazil, Senegal, Norway, Italy

The restrictions on other groups will influence how things go and then the order teams are randomly drawn in and forced to (or not forced to) fill other spots means certain combinations are probably more likely than others.

The draw is one week from Friday.

 

The draw is at 12pm (Eastern US) tomorrow.

For Qatar, there were about 55 minutes before they finally got to drawing the teams form pots.

I fully expect it to take even longer this time, based on the amount of entertainment announced and everything else that is planned.

I've seen so many mock draws on youtube, and 99% of them have some issue with some constraint they did not follow. So if you see previews like that, just be aware you might be looking at impossible groups.

And I'm not just talking about random youtubers. I mean networks with budgets and producers. The only network I saw get it right was a Canadian one: TSN. And while the presenter was decently well-informed, getting the draw right with so many constraints did require a producer occasionally making sure to remind them of a constraint.

So expect to see lots of teams jumping around once we get to Pots 3 and 4, to avoid facing teams from the same Confed, to make sure there is at least one UEFA team per group but not more than two, and so on. And even in Pot 1, to make sure to respect the separation for Argentina/Spain and France/England.

The brackets are:

Top half round of 16, assuming all the group winners win the round of 32 matches:

E x I, F x 2A/2B

2K/2L x H, D x G

Bottom half:

C x 2E/2I, A x L

J x 2D/2G, B xK

That means that if Spain is drawn into group E, Argentina cannot go into D (already USA), F, G, H, or I.

Also, France or England will have to go into either H or G (since USA is already in D) and the other one of those two will go in the other half.

So we can certainly have multiple instances of a Pot 1 team being drawn but having to move to the next available group, since these bracket constraints need to be respected.

I'll try to follow closely, but considering how long the initial stuff might take, I might miss the very beginning, but if I can, I'll update here as it goes.

 

It still requires them to do their part. Of course, with 48 teams and 12 groups, the likelihood a seed won't win their group is even lower than before, but it will be very surprising if all 9 seeds win their group (not counting the hosts here).

There will almost certainly be one unexpected quarter-finalist not because of upsets in the knock outs, but because one of the quarters of the draw is easier because of an upset during the group stage.

 

The event has started. TNT (and some other channels) are still doing just commentary rather than covering all of the preamble:

 

All three of those teams are pot 4...

But it's totally plausible that we could see Korea, Scotland, Curaçao (or Cape Verde, or New Zealand) in a group.

 

Gianni Infantino has explained the procedure and the hosts have been ceremoniously drawn. Now the real draw beigns.

If you want to watch, FIFA+ should have the feed online, or Fox or any network that has the rights will have it.

I will be following on youtube, with commentary and I'll update Brazil's draw.

EDIT: False alarm. More entertainment before we start. This is already almost 10 minutes longer than the pre-draw ceremony was for Qatar.

EDIT: 76 mins in, they are explaining the draw in a pre-recorded video with Rio Ferdinand and some kids. The explanation is obviously good to have, but 76 mins in everyone is probably asleep.

EDIT: 81 mins in the 4 athletes who will draw the balls from the pots are finally coming out.

 

Pot 1 up to Brazil's draw:

A1 - Mexico (host)
B1 - Canada (host)
C1 - Brazil
D1 - USA (host)

Early start means no second friendly before the World Cup. Not the logistics that CBF and Ancelotti wanted. Matches will be in NY/NJ, Philly, Boston, Miami, Atlanta

Brazil is in the same quarter as Mexico and England (C, A, L). If Brazil win group C and the , they will face the second placed team from F and then the winner of 2E and 2I

 

A - Mexico (host), Korea (A3)
B - Canada (host), Switzerland (B4)
C - Brazil, Morocco (C2)
D - USA (host)
E - Germany
F - Netherlands
G - Belgium
H- Spain
I - France
J - Argentina
K - Portugal
L - England

 

A - Mexico (host), South Africa (A2), Korea (A3),
B - Canada (host), Qatar (B3), Switzerland (B4),
C - Brazil, Morocco (C2), Scotland (C4)
D - USA (host), Paraguay (D2), Australia (D3)
E - Germany, Ivory Coast (E2), Ecuador (E4)
F - Netherlands, Japan (F2), Tunisia (F4)
G - Belgium, Egypt (G2), Iran (G3)
H- Spain, Uruguay (H4)
I - France, Senegal (I2)
J - Argentina, Austria (J3)
K - Portugal, Colombia (K4)
L - England, Croatia (L2)

 

A - Mexico (host), South Africa, Korea, UEFA Playoff winner (Denmark etc.)
B - Canada (host), UEFA Playofff winner (Italy etc.), Qatar, Switzerland
C - Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
D - USA (host), Paraguay, Australia,
E - Germany, Ivory Coast (E2), Ecuador (E4)
F - Netherlands, Japan (F2), Tunisia (F4)
G - Belgium, Egypt, Iran
H- Spain, Saudi Arabia (H3), Uruguay (H4)
I - France, Senegal (I2), Norway (I4)
J - Argentina, Algeria, Austria,
K - Portugal, Uzbekistan (K3), Colombia (K4)
L - England, Croatia (L2), Panama (L4)

Tough opening match, easy second match and what should be an easy third match, but you never know.

 

A - Mexico (host), South Africa, Korea, UEFA Playoff winner (Denmark etc.)
B - Canada (host), UEFA Playofff winner (Italy etc.), Qatar, Switzerland
C - Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
D - USA (host), Paraguay, Australia, UEFA Playoff winner (Turkey etc,)
E - Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
F - Netherlands, Japan, UEFA Playoff (Ukraine etc.), Tunisia
G - Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
H- Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
I - France, Senegal, FIFA playoff 2 (Iraq etc.), Norway
J - Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
K - Portugal, FIFA playoff (DR Congo etc.), Uzbekistan, Colombia
L - England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama