World Cup 2026 and the Battle between Confederations

Nice work, I like the idea!

There is a small mistake however, Egypt vs Iran (bottom of your AFC vs UEFA) should obviously go to AFC vs CAF.
I will think about it later today to give my predictions

 

Ok so I see as very likely outcomes:

AFC vs UEFA - I can think of 7 matches out of 13 where the UEFA nation should win (Switzerland, Norway, Spain, France, Portugal, Bosnia and the Netherlands), the only one in Matchday 3 being Netherlands vs Tunisia. Given that they face Japan and Sweden before, I expect them to still give it all in that last match and win.

AFC vs CAF - Only Senegal beating Irak seems super likely, the rest is unpredictable to me.

AFC vs CONCACAF - Canada should win, I’d favour Mexico and USA to also win their games but not as confident as for Canada.

AFC vs CONMEBOL - I can see at the very least 2 CONMEBOL wins, Uruguay and Argentina, most likely a third with Colombia but I’m weary of Uzbekistan.

CAF vs UEFA - I see Spain, Portugal and England winning, the rest I would not bet my money on anyone to make it for sure.

CAF vs CONCACAF - Morocco and Ivory Coast should win.

CAF vs CONMEBOL - Argentina vs Algeria is the match where I’d see the biggest favourite in Argentina, but even that one I cannot say, Algerians are definitely no pushovers.

CONCACAF vs UEFA - Scotland, Germany, Croatia, England should win.

CONCACAF vs CONMEBOL - Brazil and Ecuador should win.

CONMEBOL vs UEFA - Lots of M3 matches that could be unpredictable, else apart from Brazil beating Scotland, I cannot see any match where the favourite would win easily any day of the week.

UEFA vs UEFA - No easy winner here.

AFC vs OFC - Same here.

CAF vs OFC - Same again.

UEFA vs OFC - There, I still see Belgium winning.


So overall, I have 15 almost guaranteed UEFA wins over 40 matches against other confederations , 5 CONMEBOL wins over 18 matches, 3 CAF wins over 28 matches, 1 CONCACAF win over 18 matches, and no easy wins for AFC and OFC over respectively 28 and 3 matches.

Now these don’t totally reflect how I think each confederation will do, I see AFC, CAF and CONCACAF (well the hosts) getting quite a few more wins, and I expect UEFA teams not to dominate this World Cup, especially in the latter stages.

I’d have maybe half the teams being European in the quarterfinals as my side prediction

 

My comments on the AFC contingent, which I posted in another thread:

I am not much into football these days, for obvious reasons. Don't even know if my team will end up playing at the World Cup. But the comments here about Iran's team by certain other posters seem overly influenced by an Iranian diaspora that has its own agendas. Under normal circumstances, Iran should be able to get something like 4 points in this group, although I am not as dismissive of New Zealand as some others here nor do I share some of the comments here about Egypt. But like WC22 (except in spades times 100), these are not normal circumstances for Iran and I won't predict anything when it comes to how (or if at all) Iran will play.

The Uzbeks actually can have a surprisingly good team. To me, they are actually better individually than the sum of their parts. Individually, I would say that right now they have better players than Iran. But when they face Iran under normal circumstances (e.g., no red cards etc) overall Iran is still the better more dominant team. If their level of play is brought up to the level of talent they possess (other than their goalie, I rate most of their field players rather highly) they can surprise many teams. They have a tough group but they won't go down without a fight. They might even surprise.

The S. Koreans are ridiculous. While Americans were impressed by how they beat the US, they have not been nearly as good as you would imagine they should be on paper when things (such as the bounce of the ball and mistakes on both ends) have not perfectly lined up for them. Their overall results are pretty meh. I would have expected more from them as well. But they will be in contention to advance from their group for sure although they can easily end up doing poorly as well.

Saudi Arabia are an even bigger enigma, given how much they have spent and how little they have to show for it. I am not going to comment on them as I am biased against the Saudi team, but good riddance...

Qatar's fortunes ride almost entirely on which version of Akram Afif shows up? When Akram Afif is on fire and playing to his best (as was the case during the Asian Cup), they can actually pose problems for some of their opponents. Otherwise, they are hopeless despite Bosnia being not any better than them.

Iraq are semi-solid but not exciting at all. Arnold has shown himself a decent coach and they might be able to grind some result against one of their opponents. But as long as they don't get embarrassed, anything more from them in their tough group would be a plus.

Jordan should not be underestimated. They are pretty good and their 2nd place in the last Asian Cup wasn't entirely coincidental. But I think they have lost one of their best players (not sure?) and for a side that may not be all that deep in top level talent, that might prove consequential. They definitely will play tough against Algeria and Austria and maybe even give Argentina some trouble, but I wouldn't bet on them still.

Australia are not much to write home about but their group is pretty balanced. I like Turkiye in that group and the US have homefield advantage. Still, Australia can keep it competitive as none of these teams (except Turkiye at their best, which is not all that often) are remotely world beaters.

The cream of the crop in Asian football is Japan. They are the only side in the AFC that is legitimately better than Iran (much better), even though Iran beat them quite deservedly at the Asian Cup. I do expect much from this Japanese team and hope they don't end up disappointing. They are a legit top 10-15 side and hopefully their results will prove that to be the case.

 

So after day 1 of the World Cup we have one win for CONCACAF, one win for AFC, one loss for CAF, and one loss for UEFA.

 

So 4 groups have now played their first games and the only undefeated confederation is AFC. If Japan can get a result v Netherlands then this will still be the case after tomorrow,

AFC - 2w 1d - 7pts, 2.3 points per game
C-CAF - 2w 1d 1l - 7pts, 1.7 points per game
UEFA - 1w 2d 2l - 5pts, 1 point per game
C-Bol - 1w, 1l - 3pts, 1.3 points per game
CAF - 1d, 1l - 1pt, 0.5 points per game
OFC - hasn't played

 

Europe not looking so good so far.

Only win was due to a fortuitous goal off a deflection.

 

Against one of the weakest teams.

The draw was also against one of the weakest teams due to a penalty that was clearly offside.

Still early days.

 

Germany and Sweden hit 12 goals between them yesterday!

UEFA teams bite back!

 

If Conmebol's underwhelming start continues, we could see up to two teams from AFC, CAF and Concacaf in the SFs!

 

The first 37 minutes for Germany looked dicey.

 

The way UEFA teams have been mostly so dissapointing ....but...CONMEBOL has been too

CAF maybe the only confederation that is not a dissapointment

 

UEFA teams concentrate on important tournaments like the UEFA nations league.

Perhaps you should take a look at AFC's results so far.

 

Although this comment was made in jest, there is some truth to it so far. I think that the fact that UEFA teams rarely play anyone from outside their confederation has led to some complacency, particularly amongst the second tier teams. Turkey was a great example. They didn't treat us with respect and that led them to prepare inadequately for the game against us. We treated them with respect. We prepared for the game with tactics designed to nullify their best players as much as possible and exploit any weaknesses. Their preparation seemed to not take into account what tactics we may use (Popovic resorting to a 5-4-1 low block when under pressure is nothing new if you had watched any of our games under him) and seemed to be based on nothing more than "we are better so we will win". UEFA sides other than the big guns are finding that the better teams from other confederations are around the same standard and because they haven't respected them by preparing properly for the games are coming up short in the early battles.

 

What???

 

CONMEBOL is seriously underperforming this tournament with the exception of Brazil. Brazil hired Ancelotti after most qualification matches so I evaluate them differently.

But seriously, Paraguay getting smashed and humiliated 4-1 by the USA, Ecuador who came in second in qualification losing to Ivory Coast, Uruguay not really causing Saudi Arabia problems so far. I expect disappointment from Argentina and Colombia as well based on everything.

AFC have really been most impressive. CAF kind of have as well.

UEFA is doing as expected. Switzerland and Spain disappointed in their opening matches but I think they’ll come back. Turkey didn’t play badly but just got tactically outclassed by Australia who I think has been very underrated. I didn’t expect much from Netherlands at all from the start. AFC have really been most impressive.

CONCACAF is probably the second weakest region after OFC on average all around, but they’re doing as expected if you ask me.

I say CAF is meeting expectations and maybe doing even a bit better so far.

 

Its early days but I am seeing some trends that I thought I might see this world cup.

 

But you’ll let us know after the tournament?

 

I thought Africa will have its best collective World Cup

I thought Conmebol would disappoint other than Brazil, though I didnt see it being this bad so far.

I didn't see Asia doing so well.

Europe will be the same as it always is in non European world cups. Worse collectively than European world cups.

Concacaf the hosts will do OK, the rest no.

Still early days though.

 

The second tier teams of Conmebol has been in great decline for many years already. This is a trend which we could alteady notice during the last world cup cycle. Without Brazil and Argentine this confederarion would be in big trouble.

It was not a mere coincidence that the 5th of Asia beat the 5th of Conmebol at the last inter continental qualification match for Qatar

 

It's not that theyre bad, its just that they aren't at that very high level they were at circa 2014-2018 where they pretty much had 5 world class teams in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Uruguay, with Chile even winning back to back Copas.

I think some people expect that level to be sustained somewhat similar to Euro dominance, but it just isn't the case.

 

Another interesting discussion in this thread would be talk of all time best teams for each nation. I dont want to go all the way back in history, I'd say 1994 or maybe 1990.

The reason I think CAF will have its best collective World Cup is because I genuinely believe that Morocco, Senegal, CIV, Algeria are all sending their best all-time teams.

Egypt, Ghana, Tunisia no.

You could say its the best DRC, and Cape Verde teams, but those guys have never really been a factor.

You could argue Drogbas CIV starting 11 is better than this current one, and I think its real close, but I think this edition has a much stronger bench, and that is the key. So maybe a slightly weaker 11 but a much stronger bench. Senegal, Morocco, Algeria are clearly their strongest teams ever.

I want to see people speak on other Confederations but from my knowledge.

AFC

I think there have been stronger teams from Korea and Iran in the past. I think Viduka and Harry Kewells Australia was better. Qatar was definately stronger when they won their first AFC Cup. Maybe Uzbekistan?

You could make the argument for Japan possibly, but I think their injuries would have nullified that.

Conmebol

I dont think the argument holds for any team other than Ecuador.

Concacaf

I do think this is the best Canada ever. Mexico definately not. USA possibly ?

UEFA

France and Portugal possibly ? I'd say Norway the most obvious answer. Austria also I think. I dont think Switzerland, thinking I'd rather have prime Shaquiri and Xhaka at the same time.

Definately no to Belgium, Netherlands, Croatia, Spain, Sweden, I think no to England as well.

Curious to see what other people think.

 

For the majority of the Australian team it’s the next World Cup or even the one after that they will be at their peak. Still to be seen if they can be the equal of the golden generation.

 

Just second tier? Brazil has also been in decline. Their decline has been among the most obvious, along with Chile. Peru has also declined quite a bit, just maybe not as much as those 2.
Uruguay and Colombia 's decline has only been modest IMO. And no decline for Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela.