World Cup 2022 Qualifying General Topic [R]

After tomorrow's draw we can have general discussion here rather than in the format topic, and you can participate in my prediction contest. I'm posting links to six FIFA articles:

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/barcenas-focused-on-reprising-panamania-in-2022 is titled "Barcenas focused on reprising Panamania in 2022."

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/goater-bermuda-can-pack-a-mighty-punch is titled "Goater: Bermuda are even stronger now."

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/usa-s-road-to-redemption-starts-here is titled "USA's road to redemption starts here."

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/gallardo-reaching-the-world-cup-is-the-dream-of-every-guatemalan is titled "Gallardo: Reaching the World Cup is the dream of every Guatemalan."

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/...-cuba-shirt-is-greatest-experience-of-my-life is titled "Arichel Hernandez: Wearing the Cuba shirt is my greatest experience."

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/francois-turks-and-caicos-put-on-our-grown-man-pants is titled "Francois: Turks and Caicos put on our grown-man pants."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_First_Round#Groups has the Round 1 schedule. I'll type it day-by-day in my prediction contest topic. The groups are:

A: El Salvador, Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, Montserrat, and U.S. Virgin Islands (vs. Group F in Round 2)

B: Canada, Suriname, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, and Aruba (vs. Group E in Round 2)

C: Curacao, Guatemala, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Cuba, and British Virgin Islands (vs. Group D in Round 2)

D: Panama, Dominican Republic, Barbados, Dominica, and Anguilla (vs. Group C in Round 2)

E: Haiti, Nicaragua, Belize, Saint Lucia, and Turks and Caicos Islands (vs. Group B in Round 2)

F: Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guyana, Puerto Rico, and Bahamas (vs. Group A in Round 2)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_Second_Round has the Round 2 schedule.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_Third_Round#Matches has the Octagonal schedule.

 

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/the-concacaf-draw-in-numbers is titled "The Concacaf draw in numbers."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...nd-of-concacaf-wcq-reveals-exciting-match-ups is titled "Draw for First Round of Concacaf WCQ reveals exciting match-ups."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...s-draw-sets-path-to-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022 is titled "Concacaf Qualifiers Draw sets path to FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022."

https://www.espn.com/soccer/united-...n-world-cup-qualifying-at-trinidad-and-tobago is titled "United States could open World Cup qualifying at Trinidad and Tobago."

https://www.ussoccer.com/stories/20...-qualifying-for-the-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022 is titled "U.S. Men's National Team Learns Schedule For Final Round of Qualifying For the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022."

https://canadasoccer.com/news/canadas-pathway-set-for-the-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022/ is titled "Canada's Pathway Set For the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022."

https://canadasoccer.com/news/canada-to-face-bermuda-cayman-islands-aruba-and-suriname/ is titled "Canada to Face Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Aruba, and Suriname."

 

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/concacaf-aspirants-react-as-path-to-qatar-2022-laid-out is titled "Concacaf aspirants react as path to Qatar 2022 laid out."

 

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...mko-bicentini-our-absolute-goal-is-qatar-2022 is titled "Curacao Head Coach Remko Bicentini: “Our absolute goal is Qatar 2022”." It's a cliche to say that no opponents are easy, and British Virgin Islands is easy. The other four teams have had some success. Curacao didn't have a history of success, but they qualified for the last two Gold Cups and lost 1-0 to USA in the 2019 Quarterfinals. Guatemala regularly makes the WCQ Semifinals, and in WCQs for 2018 they won 2-0 hosting USA and got a draw at Trinidad and Tobago. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines reached the WCQs Semifinals where they lost every game with 6 scored and 34 allowed. In the six WCQs with the Semifinals and Hexagonal format, they reached the Semifinals in WCQs for 1998, 2002, 2006, and 2018. They won 2, didn't get any draws, and lost 22. Their wins were against Saint Kitts and Nevis in WCQs for 2006. Cuba reached the WCQ Semifinals for 2010 and started in the Semifinals for 2014 because they surprisingly were in Concacaf's top six in the FIFA Rankings. They finished last both times, with 3 points for 2010 and 1 point for 2014. In WCQs for 2018 there were three rounds before the Semifinals. Cuba started in Round 2 where they were eliminated on away goals after 1-1 and 0-0 draws with Curacao, which was an okay performance. All six games in the group between two teams other than the British Virgin Islands could be important, and I'd be shocked if the group winner doesn't beat British Virgin Islands. About the same group, https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...are-that-the-favorite-in-our-group-is-curacao is titled "Guatemala Head Coach Amarini Villatoro: “We are aware that the favorite in our group is Curacao”." Guatemala reached all six WCQ Semifinals, but the only time they reached the Hexagonal was for 2006, which was the only time they didn't face USA in the Semifinals. They finished behind USA and Costa Rica for 1998, USA and Costa Rica for 2002 including losing a neutral site tiebreaker game in USA after all the tiebreakers between them and Costa Rica were tied, finished behind Costa Rica and ahead of Honduras and Canada for 2006, behind USA and T&T for 2010, behind USA and Jamaica for 2014, and behind USA and T&T for 2018. They came close the last two times as they lost the goal differential tiebreaker to Jamaica for 2014 and were 1 point behind T&T for 2018. Group C would be very competitive, and the winner's Group D opponent is very likely to be Panama, who qualified for their first World Cup in 2018.

With only the winners advancing, it will be very hard to clinch advancing before the last game, so nobody can expect to watch other scores on November 17 without having to worry about themselves. If Curacao wins their first 3 games; British Virgin Islands loses every game, which I think will happen; and games between Cuba, Guatemala, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are draws; before the last day Curacao will have 9 points and clinched advancing. Guatemala will have 5, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have 4, and Cuba will have 4. To make a scenario where Curacao will lead by at least 4 points with 1 game left, Guatemala needs to not beat British Virgin Islands, or to beat British Virgin Islands but not Cuba or Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The tiebreakers are goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head, fair play points, and drawing of lots. Head-to-head normally has four tiebreakers, but since the group is single round-robin, if head-to-head points are tied then head-to-head goal differential and goals scored will be tied, and head-to-head away goals can't be used. People complained when Japan advanced and Senegal was eliminated from World Cup 2018 on the fair play tiebreaker, but it's better than drawing of lots. I'm not saying any groups will need the fair play tiebreaker, but it wouldn't be shocking if at least one group did, and it's a lot more likely to be necessary than the old format of three Semifinal groups and the Hexagonal.

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...-our-strength-is-our-desire-and-determination is titled "USVI Head Coach Gilberto Damiano: “Our strength is our desire and determination”."

 

Curacao hiring a successful coach could be bad for Guatemala, who is in Curacao's group, and Panama, who has to beat the winner of Curacao's group to reach the Octagonal. If Antigua and Barbuda from A or Trinidad and Tobago from F, Canada from B or Haiti from E, and Curacao from C reach the Octagonal, CFU will have more teams in the Octagonal than UNCAF. If A&B or T&T, Haiti, and Curacao reach the Octagonal, half of the Octagonal will be from CFU. Guatemala vs. Cuba is arguably a must-win for both of them on October 7 before Curacao starts on October 8 hosting Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Neither FIFA nor Concacaf has written about Hiddink yet.

https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/ten-memorable-moments-in-concacaf-qualifying is titled "Ten memorable moments in Concacaf qualifying."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...ic-wcq-is-a-great-chance-to-generate-momentum is titled "Jacques Passy of Dominican Republic: “WCQ is a great chance to generate momentum”." I wonder how many of the 30 teams Concacaf will write about before the games start.

 

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...h-thomas-christiansen-it-s-a-good-draw-for-us is titled "Panama Head Coach Thomas Christiansen: “It’s a good draw for us”."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...mcdonald-el-salvador-will-be-a-big-test-again is titled "Montserrat MF Massiah McDonald: “El Salvador will be a big test again”."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/article/the-rapid-rise-of-curacao-in-concacaf is titled "The rapid rise of Curacao in Concacaf."

I'm going to list the teams in Round 1 and put teams in bold after Concacaf wrote about them. In future posts, I will note which teams are in bold for the first time.

A:
El Salvador
Antigua and Barbuda
Grenada
Montserrat
U.S. Virgin Islands

B:
Canada
Suriname
Bermuda
Cayman Islands
Aruba

C:
Curacao
Guatemala
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Cuba
British Virgin Islands

D:
Panama
Dominican Republic
Barbados
Dominica
Anguilla

E:
Haiti
Nicaragua
Belize
Saint Lucia
Turks and Caicos Islands

F:
Trinidad and Tobago
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Guyana
Puerto Rico
Bahamas

So far three groups have had two teams written about and three groups have had no teams written about. Concacaf has written about six of the teams, which is 20 percent.

 

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...e-are-going-to-embrace-this-opportunity-fully is titled "Turks And Caicos Islands’ Edwards: “We are going to embrace this opportunity fully”."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...ll-latapy-we-want-to-gain-experience-from-wcq is titled "Barbados Head Coach Russell Latapy: “We want to gain experience from WCQ”." Latapy played for Trinidad and Tobago in World Cup 2006.

I'm not going to list all 30 teams when I post article links. I'll just list the teams Concacaf has written articles about with the new ones in bold:

A:
Montserrat
U.S. Virgin Islands

C:
Curacao
Guatemala

D:
Panama
Dominican Republic
Barbados

E:
Turks and Caicos Islands

 

Concacaf wrote groups previews for A through D:

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...-el-salvador-head-up-heavy-hitters-in-group-a is titled "CWCQ: El Salvador head up heavy hitters in Group A."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...q-group-b-rivals-take-aim-at-explosive-canada is titled "CWCQ: Group B rivals take aim at explosive Canada."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...guatemala-and-others-set-to-fight-for-group-c is titled "Concacaf WCQ: Curacao, Guatemala and others set to fight for Group C."

https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-c...f-wcq-panama-brace-for-challengers-in-group-d is titled "Concacaf WCQ: Panama brace for challengers in Group D."

 

One possibility is that Concacaf streams games that aren't on TV. If Round 1 has one game on TV per matchday with more on the last day, we can't complain. I certainly hope all of the Round 2 games are on TV. To guess if beIN Sports would want to show the games, in the first window, October 8 (the second day) when 1 seeds host 3 seeds, and October 13 (the fifth day) when 3 seeds host 5 seeds are on the same day as CONMEBOL qualifiers. October 11 (the fourth day) when 4 seeds host 1 seeds is the day that 1 seeds play and CONMEBOL doesn't. In addition to TV rights, it would also be nice to have announcements of stadiums for countries that use more than one and for countries who play home games elsewhere, and start times. CONMEBOL has all their games listed at the same time, which I'm assuming is a placeholder with times to be decided later. Wikipedia links to FIFA, which has the CONMEBOL start times if the games had been played in March.

 

Which of St. V and G or Cuba do you think will finish above Curacao? If you want to make score predictions for every game before the round starts, you can go to my prediction contest topic. barnabyjonez is the only person other than me who made predictions so far.

FIFA doesn't let WCQ seeding use anything other than the FIFA Rankings, although they may make an exception for UEFA's Nations League. UEFA is playing a Nations League in September, October, and November; and they haven't made their WCQ draw yet. Beyond FIFA rules, you shouldn't weight four or six Nations League games too much in terms of where teams should be seeded.

 

Concacaf wants to let all teams play in a group stage so some don't get eliminated after two games, but that may not be possible. If you take away October and November, there will be 16 matchdays left, the 2 for Round 2 and the 14 for the Octagonal. I think there should be knockout rounds until a Hexagonal because three aggregate series and the Hexagonal would need 16 matchdays. Here's my proposal:

Round 1: Teams 1 through 5 have byes, teams 6 through 35 play, 30 teams play, 15 teams eliminated, 20 teams left

Round 2: Teams 1 through 4 have byes, Team 5 and the Round 1 winners play, 16 teams play, 8 teams eliminated, 12 teams left

Round 3: Teams 1 through 4 and the Round 2 winners play, 12 teams play, 6 teams eliminated, 6 teams go to the Hexagonal

Using the FIFA Rankings:

Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, and Jamaica would start in Round 3.

Honduras would start in Round 2.

El Salvador, Canada, Curacao, Panama, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda, Guatemala, St. Kitts and Nevis, Suriname, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Barbados, and Guyana would be in the top pot for the Round 1 draw.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Bermuda, Belize, St. Lucia, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Montserrat, Dominica, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, Aruba, Turks and Caicos Islands, US Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, and Anguilla would be in the bottom pot for the Round 1 draw. If you wanted to make six pots of five, with Pot 1 playing Pot 6, Pot 2 playing Pot 5, and Pot 3 playing Pot 4, that is okay with me.

Coronavirus is enough of a problem that nothing can be guaranteed to go according to plan until it has done so.