Elo-based ranking systems are about the best you can get. I mean, you can try Glicko too, but honestly that's just Elo with extra steps. The only way to really improve the rankings, "worldfootball" or FIFA, is to fine-tune the various weighting constants in the systems, and those don't change a ton in the long run unless you really inflate game-to-game points shifts. I will point out, from all my years being the "rankings guy" over on the WoSo boards, that a big points shift during a major tournament like this doesn't actually matter that much in evening out disparate pools of team, i.e. regional confederations. That +/- 200pts washes out rather quickly if it's spread around the confederation, and if it's not spread around, then it's only affecting the one or two teams responsible for the big shift.
With all that said my recent days expectation of 7 out of 13 has been confirmed, I don't want to go overboard with conspiracy theories but I found the behaviour of some Spanish players and their coaching staff happy with the defeat and knowing Germany was knocked out. Before the competition started I always had the expectation that at least 8 UEFA teams would reach the last 16 but there is a historical pattern here added with globalization and the development of football on other Continents outside Europe and South America. For me Asian and African teams, at least their top teams are catching up with Europe and South America, regarding CONCACAF for me it's still about the USA, I have some reservations regarding Mexico future, and I don't see Canada yet ready to step up a level. Everytime UEFA teams play outside Europe, more specifically in the Southern hemisphere we see more teams being knocked out, I don't see this as negative, but I have to say for me it's a historical scandal that Germany has been knocked out on 2 consecutive WC and Italy failed to qualify for 2 consecutive WC, we can say whatever we want but Germany and Italy are Royalty in European Football History. Anyway moving ahead, I was expecting 4 UEFA teams on the last 8, I have to say that now I am moving towards 3. France, England and Spain in the last 8. Somehow I am expecting a tragedy tomorrow with Portugal resting players against South Korea, we lose the match, Ghana wins their match and we finish second place and we will be knocked out by Brazil on the last 16. It's our destiny to choke in WC's. I know @vancity eagle won't agree with me but my prediction is that Senegal and Morocco won't reach the last 8, but I can see Japan, USA and if Ghana wins tomorrow with Portugal bottling the first place these 3 teams mixing between 3 UEFA teams and 2 CONMEBOL sides, making it since 2002 8 teams from 5 diferent Confederations. That time it was: UEFA - Germany, Turkey, England, Spain, CONCACAF - USA, CAF - Senegal, CONMEBOL - Brasil, AFC - South Korea. I guess this things of Asian teams playing in Asia even if it's on Qatar might have some influence, who would have thought Japan would win 2 matches vs 2 top UEFA teams and lose against one of the weakest CONCACAF sides? Or that Tunisia would win and draw against 2 UEFA sides and lose the other against Australia? I know that the history made abou this will be UEFA teams flopping but this WC is confirming that football is more globalized than ever, a lot of these players play against each other in European Leagues and Champions League, and today you can see the coaching staffs in every continent are more than ready to face each other. Just to finish your observation about Romania, I do think it has been a semi tragedy for Central and Eastern European Football that they didn't developed the quality of their clubs and players at the same level as Western Europe + UK or Scandinavia, the only 2 countries where I can see them keeping their tradition of developing and exporting players with good level is Serbia and Croatia, still have my reservations about Poland. The drop of quality by Romania, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, even Slovakia doesn't look great at all, and we better not even start with Russia or Ukraine, this countries always brought more diversity and quality to European Football as a whole, it's my personal opinion.
You did understand that I was praising Croatia and Serbia by being the only 2 countries from the old Eastern Bloc, or let's say former Yugoslavia that even not having a strong domestic League with the good job done by Dinamo Zagreb, Hajduk Split, Partizan and Red Star Belgrade they are more than ready to give playing time for 18/19/20 years old players and exporting the most talented to the top leagues in Europe? I was mentioning more the past involving Eastern and Central Europe, if you look at the old USSR you cannot say the level of Russian or Ukrainian players is at the same level as they had in the past, even from former Czechoslovakia you can see the new generation of Czech players isn't at the same level they produced, let's not even mention Romania or ven more tragical what happened with Bulgaria. I am going to give my prediction for tomorrow: Serbia will beat Switzerland and they will face Ghana on the last 16 because Portugal will rest players tomorrow and bottle against South Korea and will be kocked out by Brazil on the last 16. By the way for me Portugal, Serbia and Croatia none of this 3 will reach the last 8, don't start laughing about Portugal because the 3 will bottle this in the last 16.
Sorry I said 7 but it was 8 out of 13 from UEFA. 2014 was 6 out of 12. Let's see if my prediction of 3 UEFA teams on the last 8 is confirmed. @waitforit
the big England-Senegal preview is here. Senegal have been great at generating quick shots in possession and England have, while not being bad, shown a few cracks at allowing teams to get in quickly. That, and creating the chance through the excellent right hand side play of Youssouf Sabaly and Ismaila Sarr will be what Senegal will hope for to pull the upset. England though can utilize their great control to push Sabaly back, ideally through playing Rashford: a much better option than Sterling at this point. Mount's receiving is unlikely to be crucial in this game, meaning Foden with his better box danger should start for England. They have struggled to connect midfield and the box, and need creators and finishers. lots of metrics, charts, and field maps here for the curious https://saturdays.substack.com/p/the-big-england-senegal-preview
I was against the expansion of the Euros from 16 to 24 as I am for WC expansion to 48 teams. The only positive I can see is giving more spots to Africa, maybe Asia, don't know if it will make a difference for CONMEBOL or CONCACAF honestly. But it will be a nightmare having groups of 3 teams, not to mention that the Qualifiers all over the World will become meaningless, it will downgrade the quality of fotball played, already happened with the expansion of the Euros. It's all about more money from the TV's, it has nothing to do with noble intentions.
I'm definitely not a conspiracy theorist, and in fact I think conspiracies and the people that believe in them are often a danger to society. Yes ofcourse there are many harmless conspiracies, I just mean the one's that make crazy people feel the need to take action and potentially get violent. That being said, I have to agree with you that something seemed suspicious about the behavior of the Spanish. They didn't seem to care much and just went through the motions of seemingly being hasty while continuously making poor decisions. I think it might be as simple as not really caring if they play Morocco over Croatia. Also just because they're in the same confederation doesn't mean Spain cares if Germany is eliminated. I have to disagree in regards to Portugal tomorrow. I understand as supporters we always remember the heart breaks and naturally worry about reliving them, but it requires much to go wrong for Portugal the lose first. I suspect Portugal probably won't play great and they will rotate players but I think they could still get a draw. If Portugal loses by 1 Ghana must win by 2. It also matters how many total goals are scored by either team tomorrow. To keep it more simple, I also have a feeling Uruguay will come through tomorrow. I was on the fence for that game but now I just feel like Uruguay's overall quality will have to show up for atleast 1 game. They've shown periods of quality but not for as much as they're capable of. I do agree that Portugal is likely to not look very good tomorrow as we've seen many times in the past with Portugal or other already qualified teams, match day 3's tend to be uninspiring.
I'm sure that the Spanish players were aware that a loss to Japan would ensure they don't play Brazil in the quarters.
Yeah, I do feel that the Spanish players only tried harder on the second half when someone from the coaching staff probably told them Costa Rica was winning the match. I still expect Spain to qualify against Morocco, but as someone who lives on the Iberian Peninsula I do know there are 2 countries in Europe Morocco would love to beat, Spain and France, with us is more relatively friendly relationship. I even dare to say a game between Morocco and Spain for them involves more rivalry than any African Nation, except Algeria and maybe one or other North African country, one thing is for sure, if Spain only plays what they played today won't be enough to reach the last 8. Regarding Portugal, yep I would like us to avoid a defeat tomorrow, South Korea is better than their number of points on the table show, if we don't play with intensity we will get crushed.
The problem will be that will mean possibly more games to win the competition, I am expecting the top European clubs to make big noise against more games for their players.
If it will be only a extra game possibly won't be a big problem, if it's much more than that it will make noise.
Personally I'd want to see them keep it top 2 advance. 24 teams to the knockout stages. Top 8 group winners get a bye. It would be the same as the new CL knockout format and it means teams going for 9 pts means a lot and makes MD3 games more meaningful.
The votes in favor of expansion came from nations that have never qualified (or has very limited participations), who now think they will have more chances to qualify. I do not think all is about more money.
If you think every expansion by FIFA or let's say UEFA has nothing to do with more money from the TV's respectfully I am going to say you are a bit naive.
Read correctly: I said that I do not think ALL is about more money, not that it has nothing to do with money. Two completely different things.
Ok, makes more sense. But I keep saying it wasn't done based on noble intentions. I am against expansion not because it won't be better having more teams from Africa, even Asia, my problem is that from my experience regarding the expansion of the Euros they told us it would be better and the reality is the tournament became more defensive. Not even mentioning I don't see 24 NT's in Europe with high quality for that. So I doubt the quality of football will be better.
I like to use another measure of comparison between confederations and that's how many teams finish in last place. I always thought this was more relevant when deciding which regions were over or under represented as if you had more than your share of last placed teams you were over represented and if you had less than your share there was a chance some worthy teams didn't make it because of a lack of spots. After six groups have been completed that running total is UEFA 2, AFC 2, CONCACAF 2, CAF 0 and CONMEBOL 0. CAF and CONMEBOL could still end up with a last placed each, or UEFA and AFC could add to their totals. It's only a rough guide, as some 4th placed teams were competitive in their groups and some just stink the place up without providing much competition at all.
WC Expansion should've been 40 teams. 10 groups of four. All group winners Advance. Then the top two runners up also go the round of 16. After that the remaining eight runners up will take part in a play off to determine the last four teams for the round of 16. Then you can go on from there.