While its a bit too early for this, I was wondering how people here see the different confederations would do in Qatar? Will UEFA end up grabbing all the limelight? Will Conmebol as a whole manage to do well, or will it be only Brazil (and maybe Argentina) that will have a chance to go far in the tournament? And between the lesser confederations, which will do worse and which will do better? I will share my early thoughts on the issue as follows. I do see the trend in football favoring the top UEFA sides, but not necessarily most of the 2nd tier in UEFA. The latter (with one or two exceptions) will, IMO, fail to shine much in Qatar, while the former are likely to dominate the proceedings. Overall, though, Qatar 2022 will likely be another good or even better tournament for UEFA than Russia 2018. I have not been impressed by Conmebol, at least, not from the games I have watched. Besides Brazil, and to a lesser extent Argentina, I wouldn't say any of the Conmebol teams will have an easy time even advancing from their groups. And that is largely going to hold true in my mind regardless of who end up being the other 3 from Conmebol. As for CAF, I see them having a decent tournament and certainly show better than in Russia. At least a couple of their sides could be in the R16 and they might even have a team advance as far as the semifinals for the first time. Teams like Morocco (especially), Senegal and Algeria do have such potential. The situation in the AFC, on the other hand, is a mixed bag of positive and negative indicators. The positives start with the venue being more familiar to AFC sides, as many will have experience playing in Qatar. The other positive is that S.Korea have a better team than they have had in recent memory. In fact, S. Korea are good enough to not just advance from their group but make it as far as say the quarterfinals. The other team from the AFC that could do well is Iran, although there are still some question marks about this Iranian team that need to be answered between now and Qatar. Still, my own sense is that Iran will make history in Qatar and advance from its group. As for Saudi Arabia, I think they have a decent run in Qatar and might even advance from their group. One thing I am almost certain: Saudi Arabia will not be the punching bag it has so often been in the past, even if they don't advance from their group. When it comes to the bad news for the AFC, though, Japan (arguably the best team in the AFC the past decade) are in a slump. Since WC98, unless its a year where Japan advance from their World Cup group, as in 2002, 2010, 2018, no other AFC team advances either. Of course, of more immediate concern for Japan will be to simply qualify and, like Australia, they will be facing a tough route to the World Cup if they end up 3rd in their group. Finally, when it comes to CONCACAF, I see Qatar 2022 as ground breaking. It will be the first tournament which won't see Mexico advance from its group. On the other hand, I have a sense the US might do better in Qatar than anytime in the recent past. And Canada will be able to acquit themselves well too.
France Spain Germany England Belgium Nethrlands Croatia are probably the teams you consider as 1st tier now. Well i can tell you that Denmark and Switzerland are tough to play. And Serbia got fire upfront. Just as i said that Croatia wouldn't remain 30-40 years without having a deep run before wc2018, Serbia won't remain ridiculous at the world cup for a century. The match won in Lisbon against Portugal might be the result they needed to change their history. With SMS Tadic Kostic Vlahovic Mitrovic they are very dangerous.
All the UEFA sides that have qualified (or are likely to qualify) are quite capable. Maybe I shouldn't have made the distinction between the 1st an 2nd tier UEFA sides, since my main point was how I see UEFA increasing the gap and doing well in Qatar.
The team coming from path A will probably have less potential than others but even Ukraine tied France twice in their qualifiers. From path B, Poland got only Lewa his team is too weak. This is the team to face when you are from other confederations. Sweden would have the best chance to reach ko stages from this path but i am not sure they will be qualified. The one that will be qualified from Italia or Portugal will have a huge confidence boost.
Usually UEFA tends to do worse in World Cups outside of Europe. The number of UEFA teams in the quarterfinals at World Cups on European soil is always six. If they are held anywhere else it diminishes to four or even three. That being said the level of play in UEFA has been very high and UEFA will send a strong line-up to Qatar. The creation of the Nations League helped mostly 2nd tier sides to get more competitive. Just look at the last EUROs. Denmark in the semi-finals. Switzerland, Czech Republic and Ukraine in the quarterfinals. My guess would be that five UEFA teams will make up the quarterfinals. Maybe something like four powerhouses and one 2nd tier nation. A confederation I expect to do worse than in previous three editions is CONMEBOL. The 2nd tier nations of the last decade such as Uruguay, Colombia and Chile are all struggling. Only team I see on the up are Ecuador. I expect good things from Ecuador in Qatar. But given their low ranking they will have it not easy to get out of the group let alone to go on a deep run. I see two CONMEBOL teams reaching the quarterfinals, presumably Brazil and Argentina. One or two teams (if CONMEBOL take part with five teams) will be eliminated in the group stage. CONCACAF will roughly keep up their record of the last World Cups. I see the USA in the best position to get out of the group. They have as a nation a lot of World Cup experience and several players playing in the best leagues in Europe. CAF will drastically improve on their showing in Russia 2018. I feel that there will be a reaction after all CAF teams were eliminated in the group stage for the first time after 1982. I see one team making some noise by reaching the quarterfinals. The team I have in mind for that is Morocco. I think they are close to be a complete team. They have talent in all positions. I think they will have an excellent AFCON and will move up to pot three which might help their cause to go on a deep run in Qatar as well. The AFC will in about do like they did in Russia. I see one team reaching the Round of 16 making sure that AFC will be represented in the knockout stage in "their" World Cup. South Korea looks to me the best shout. They play a modern brand of football and are a well-balanced side with a few very good players. Iran is another team that could do well. So my quarterfinals would look like this: five UEFA, two CONMEBOL and one CAF team. Best performing teams from the ROW would be Ecuador, USA, Morocco and South Korea. I expect one or two of these sides among the last eight. Regarding the outright winner I feel CONMEBOL have a better chance to bring it home than in previous editions. I make Brazil and England favourites for glory in Qatar. Other teams could come close but winning it all will be between these two in my eyes.
Who are candidates for big flops in Qatar? Belgium and Portugal (should they qualify) from UEFA. Mexico from CONCACAF. Whoever finishes 4th and 5th in the CONMEBOL WCQ table. For CAF I can't comment as we don't have an idea yet who qualifies. For AFC Japan and Australia (should they qualify).
I will speak on CAF chances after the AFCON. The teams have been mostly playing very weak sides in the initial rounds of qualifying. A lot of the times these sides are just parking the bus, and these aren't the type of games CAF will see on the world stage. So its really hard to take much from these matches. There also haven't been a lot of cross-confederational friendlies, (due to nations leagues) which I also think offers some insight into how the CAF sides will do. Some key cross confederation friendlies over the past 2 years which may offer a food for thought. Pretty much all of these are from late 2019 pre-Covid era, as there haven't really been any friendlies between confederations since. Ukraine 2 Nigeria 2 in Kiev This was a match Nigeria totally dominated on the road and missed 4 or 5 great chances. They were up 2-0 and Ukraine scored twice in the final 20 minutes, after Nigeria took off a number of players. Brazil 1 Nigeria 1 played in Singapore. Neymar went off in the 20th minute, Brazil was slightly the better side. Brazil 1 Senegal 1 Also played in Singapore a few days before the Nigeria game. Senegal played Brazil a little better than the Nigerians. Algeria 3 Colombia 0 a shock resulted that really Colombia never recovered from. Algeria 2 Mexico 2 Algeria completely dominated Mexico in a match in Holland and were 2-1 up until they had a man red carded and had to play almost the entire 2nd half a man down, which they conceded a late equalizer. Morocco 0 Argentina 1 Morocco lost at home to a full but Messi-less Argentina, in a match which was fairly even and had terrible wind storms. The Moroccan side has changed quite a bit since then in terms of personell and coach. All in all I will say that talent wise all the African sides are better than in 2018, they all have new and talented youngsters that make them stronger, and also have more depth. This is pretty much across the board. They all have the talent to do well and make runs, its just a matter of whether the coaches can have them clicking at the right time. Again I will see how they do at the afcon.
There have been far fewer friendly matches between teams outside of UEFA against UEFA teams recently, in part because of Covid and in part of because of the Nations League. That probably contributes to me giving UEFA such high odds of doing well in Qatar, as I basically get to simply to compare the level of play and excitement of games like the ones in the UEFA Nations league semifinals and beyond or the Euro with matches played in different confederations -- the latter often in environments where the pitch, lack of enough spectators due to Covid, etc contribute to make things look even worse than they might be. But I have generally been unimpressed by the level of play outside of UEFA. In this regard, the one team outside of UEFA that has shown the greatest improvement to me has been South Korea. As someone who has spent the last decade or more trying to prove Iran is better than South Korea, and who honestly believed that to be absolutely the case since 2015 until this South Korean side under Bento, that is a hard thing for me to admit. And its a bit early as South Korea hasn't played much in adverse conditions and benefited from a variety of factors when it played Iran in Tehran to a 1:1 draw. But so far, South Korea look pretty good to me. Another AFC team that has looked improved is Saudi Arabia. I don't want to overstate the issue, nor have any incentive to do so. But I see them sufficiently improved to be able to avoid getting embarrassed against the next UEFA side they meet, which is what has happened to them in every World Cup since 1998 (WC98: France 4 Saudi Arabia 0; WC 2002: Germany 8 Saudi Arabia 0, Ireland 3 Saudi Arabia 0; WC 2006: Ukraine 4 Saudi Arabia 0; WC 2010-2014 absent; WC 2018: Russia 5 Saudi Arabia 0). Please note, incidentally, that Saudi Arabia did better in all of these World Cup against the other teams in its group. For instance, Uruguay had a difficult time beating Saudi Arabia in WC18 and won 1:0, while Egypt lost to the Saudis 2:1. And as pathetic Saudi Arabia looked in Russia, the truth is that they were able to play parts of their possession oriented style, which saw them have more of the ball in most of their matches including in their thrashing against Russia. Which brings met to Qatar, the WC hosts. Qatar do have some good players, do some things very well, and were deserved winners of the 2019 Asian Cup. But every indication so far is that they are going to be like Saudi Arabia in the past: a side that can play a credible match if an opponent is unable to expose its weak links, but which can look pathetic and out of their league against UEFA sides who press/counter press effectively and deny them any chance to go through with their rehearsed plays. The totality of Qatar's results, at least, indicate that is where they are headed. Namely, being credible enough against South American or Concacaf sides, but rubbish against UEFA. As far Iran, too many question marks for the one side in the AFC that, in theory, should do very well in Qatar. To be sure, Iran has won 12 of its last 13 games. The only game we haven't won was our 1:1 draw against South Korea. And to be doubly sure, some of the teams we have defeated easily (e.g. 3:0 v Bahrain in Bahrain, 3:0 v Iraq in Qatar, 3:0 against Syria in Jordan) have occasionally troubled us in the past even when we were doing well. Nor have our few friendly games exposed these issues, since Iran won all those friendlies easily including beating Bosnia 2:0 in Bosnia (without Azmoun and Taremi to boot). But the questions still persist and remain, at least until Iran faces South Korea in Korea. The Koreans haven't defeated Iran even at home in a long time, with our last 5 matches in Korea ending either in draws or with Iran winning. We will have to see if they can do better this time and then I can perhaps have a better sense of where Iran and South Korea stand.
I agree overall with what you said but i think it will be more balanced between uefa nations reaching 1/4 finals. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2 nations from Switzerland Serbia Denmark and the 3 play off winners in 1/4 finals. 2-3 uefa powerhouses + 2 uefa second tier + brazil + usa + 1 other from caf or afc in 1/4 finals is the kind of draw i wouldn't be surprised about.
We'll see. Usually 2nd tier UEFA sides perform stronger at World Cups on European soil. Look at this: 2nd tier UEFA nations in the quarterfinals at World Cups hosted in Europe 98 — 2 teams — Croatia, Denmark 06 — 1 team — Ukraine 18 — 3 teams — Croatia, Sweden, Russia The same for World Cups held outside of Europe 02 — 1 Team — Turkey 10 — nobody 14 — 1 team — Belgium ( Belgium was an upcoming side back then and still 2nd tier) It doesn't mean of course that this has to continue.
The last time away from europe with 3 teams was in 94 in the US. Romania Bulgaria Sweden were both in 1/4 finals. We will see.
The Arab Cup hasn't changed my view on how the AFC will do at the World Cup. but has reinforced my view that Qatar 2022 will be excellent for CAF (especially the likely N. African contingent). My own view, and its still early and my view isn't set in stone, is that the success of CAF will come at the expense of CONMEBOL in particular, although Concacaf sides from similar footballing styles like Mexico will suffer too. In a way, I see teams which can best utilize a press/counter-press system, as having the greatest advantage, while teams that rely on patient build ups and (useless -- even counter productive and risky) possession from their own half as being the most vulnerable.
If you recall my post I said in about the same stuff. CAF will be the most improved confederation while CONMEBOL will dip. The rest will more or less stay unchanged. Just because I keep saying that the level of several 2nd tier AFC nations is subpar at the moment it doesn't change anything on how I think AFC will do globally in Qatar. My bet is as of now one Asian side will make the knockout stage. But certainly not two or three as you might wish.
I see an Asian team in Qatar having a deep run. In fact I can see Asian teams having a better run on their own continent and with the World Cup being in Qatar, I see at least one AFC team going on a run. But as far as who that team is, I have it being South Korea.
Should an AFC team reach the quarterfinals it would be historic. Never ever did an AFC team win a knockout stage game if it was no hosts.
You and I share similar views on the likely general trend, though perhaps not always for the same reasons. But my crystal ball can't capture details and specifics such as how many AFC sides and which ones among them specifically will advance. For that, I rely also on my heart to resolve doubts in favor of the sides I like to see do well., Those sides specifically would be: 1- Iran 2- Iran 3- Iran p.s. "certainly" is certainly not a term I would use in that context. 2-3 is reasonably possible, even if 0-2 is slightly more likely.
Japan definitely deserved to win in 2010, outplaying Paraguay and then exiting merely on penalties. Japan was also unlucky in WC18 against Belgium, relinquishing a 2 goal lead like they did. But I should mention that N.Korea in 1966 advanced to the quarterfinals, even if the format was different then and you didn't need to win a knockout match to get there.
I plan on following the upcoming AFCON extensively. My main focus will be on the ten sides that are in the playoffs. I'll guess after that tournament we'll have a better idea how CAF would perform in Qatar.
https://www.espn.com.au/football/matchstats?gameId=264115 Paraguay - Japan Shots 18 - 16 Shots on goal 6 - 6 Corners 6 - 5 Possession 58%—42% Nice try. It was an even game. You are a very respected member of this forum but your AFC bias is blatant.
Maybe the stats don't support my view, but my recollection from that match was that Japan were the better side with better chances. It has been a while, so I could be mistaken.
My odds for how many AFC teams will reach the knockout stage in Qatar 0 Teams — 33% 1 Team — 49% 2 Teams — 15% More than 2 Teams — 3%
My preliminary odds, not knowing all that I would need to know such as the teams that end up qualifying from the AFC, the draw, etc: 0 Teams — 20% 1 Team — 35% 2 Teams — 25% More than 2 Teams — 20%
Intetesting. What we agree on is that it's likely that AFC will be represented in the knockout stage. You are giving that 80% whereas I give it 67%. However I'm much more keen on "one team" while you spread your percentages much more widely. I don't agree however on your 20% for more than two teams. You realise that AFC never send more than two teams through, right? Why should it be any different this time? I said it before. I'll give only South Korea relatively good chances. Iran has somewhat of a chance. I don't like the chances of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Japan or Australia. So you see why there's a huge drop off from "two teams" to "more than two teams" in my odds. I guess some people in the forum will find my percentages flattering for AFC. The same people will dismiss your odds as wishfull thinking. The draw on 1 April will change the odds of course. For the sake of AFC they should hope that South Korea and to a lesser extent Iran get favourable draws. The others won't cut it even in lenient groups imo.