World Cup 2018 Qualifying: Who Has Done Better and Worse Than Expected?

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by EvanJ, Dec 28, 2016.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    FIFA wrote World Cup 2018 Qualifying recaps about what happened in 2016:

    CONCACAF: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y=2016/m=12/news=ticos-the-toast-of-concacaf-s-2016-2861378.html

    CONMEBOL: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y...surgent-in-an-unpredictable-race-2860734.html

    OFC: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y...le-awaits-amid-tight-competition-2861821.html

    UEFA: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y...tes-and-switzerland-start-strong-2861932.html

    AFC: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y=2016/m=12/news=all-to-play-for-in-asia-2861361.html

    CAF: http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y...ed-for-another-grandstand-finish-2861420.html

    So who has done better and worse than expected. Here's my opinions:

    Better than expected:

    Costa Rica: They were expected to qualify, but they have still impressed. In their six qualifiers in 2016, they had five wins, one draw, no losses, 14 goals scored, and 2 goals allowed.

    DR Congo: They have the best goal differential in CAF through two out of six Group Stage games at +5, albeit without having played Tunisia yet. Their 6 points are as many as they had in their six Group Stage games in World Cup 2014 Qualifying, and those groups were easier because there were twice as many of them. Their only World Cup appearance was in 1974 when they were Zaire.

    Saudi Arabia: They're in a four team battle for two or three spots. I doubt many people expected them to be ahead of Japan and Australia halfway through the group.

    Republic of Ireland: They lead their group. In two of their last three World Cup qualifying groups they finished fourth.

    Poland: They lead their group. They were fourth in their group for World Cup 2014 and fifth in their group for World Cup 2010.

    Worse than expected:

    USA: They won their Semifinal group, but lost at Guatemala. Then they lost their first two Hexagonal games, and will be in big trouble if they don't win hosting Honduras in their next qualifier.

    Algeria: They have 1 point from two Group Stage games. Nigeria leads their group with 6 points. Algeria ends by hosting Nigeria, but if Nigeria wins their next three games (with two of them at home), Algeria will be eliminated before then.

    Ghana: Their points (1), goal differential (-2), and the points for their group's leader (Egypt with 6) are the same as for Algeria. Their schedule is also similar to Algeria. Ghana ends hosting Egypt, but if Egypt wins their next three games (with two of them at home), Ghana will be eliminated before then.

    Colombia: It's hard to qualify from CONMEBOL, but they should still be disappointed that two-thirds of the way through they're in sixth, and they're the only World Cup 2018 Quarterfinalist who would be eliminated if their group ended now. The good news for them is that four of their remaining six games are against the bottom four teams. That's bad news for Argentina.

    Argentina: They're in fifth and would be big favorites over the OFC champion if they finished fifth, but they could fall out of the top five. They still have to play at two of the top three, Uruguay and Ecuador.

    Czech Republic: They didn't qualify for World Cup 2014, and they're doing worse this time. They're in fourth place, and they're behind an Azerbaijan team who got 9 points from their 10 World Cup 2014 Qualifiers.

    Austria: They had the second most points in Euro 2016 Qualifying, but they have only 4 points through 4 games, and they trail second place Serbia by 4 points.
     
    Unak78 repped this.
  2. GunnerMan8705

    GunnerMan8705 Member

    Oct 3, 2016
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I really like Costa Rica.... Very underrated and their first hexagonal games are the first games they have had their entire 1st team back and it showed.

    Egypt is REALLY hot right now and like you said, Saudi Arabia is surprising as hell.

    Crazy thing is how fast CONMEBOL changes, two international breaks ago Brazil was sitting in 6th and Colombia was 2nd... Still a long way to go....
     
  3. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    We are merely at the halfway mark in the AFC and there are still an equal number of games that can significantly change the standings in both groups. But so far I would say Qatar has thankfully done worse than I would have expected. They started the tournament with a string of impressive results in friendlies, a lot of hype after recruiting a mercenaries from around the world to play for them, and with Qatar slated to host the next World Cup, their FA was certainly under pressure to make sure they do well and not be the first team ever to have its first ever qualification to the World Cup be as hosts. As it stands, they look somewhat out of contention to qualify to the World Cup already.

    South Korea have, in some ways, done slightly worse than expected. While it is true that their only loss was to Iran, a team that has beaten them 4 times in a row now and hasn't lost to them in regular time in ages despite numerous clashes between them, this time around against Iran they were thoroughly outclassed. They lost without even getting a single (not one) shot on goal against Iran and hardly without any shots at all! Frankly the 1:0 scoreline, as the Korean fans would admit, flattered them. But despite the fact that Iran is on top[​IMG] of the group and finished the year without a single loss in any match (including but not limited to these qualifying games), it remains true the point differences on top[​IMG] of Group A between Iran, South Korea and Uzbekistan are negligible and can be erased after a single match. Hence, it is still too early to confidently pick the teams out of Group A. I personally like to see Iran and South Korea advance, as they are to me the best teams in this group, but the Uzbeks have managed to only lose to South Korea and Iran but, unlike Iran and South Korea, haven't lost points to anyone else. They are, therefore, still clearly in contention for one of the 2 automatic spots and are almost certain to at least qualify for the playoffs.

    In Group B in the AFC, another team I don't like, namely Saudi Arabia, has certainly unfortunately (but not entirely surprisingly) surpassed expectations in terms of their results. The Saudis used to be one of the top teams in the AFC, but they had found themselves outside the ranks of the top AFC teams ever since 2006. As I don't like them, I hope to see them fumble and disappear again. The chance for it is there since the competition in Group B is close and none of the teams have shown themselves all that much better than the rest. At this time, though, the 2 automatic qualifying spots appear to be destined to be decided between Saudi Arabia, Australia and Japan and whichever among them doesn't grab one of the 2 automatic spots will likely be the Asian playoff team from Group B.
     
  4. AndSalx95

    AndSalx95 New Member

    Sep 23, 2013
    Puerto Limón
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Nat'l Team:
    Costa Rica
    Oh yeah, we're thriving in the WCQ. We're still strong at home, as we now have nine straigth wins at San José, with ten goals in the last three matches.
    2017 will be a tough year. Remember 2009? We were dominating and suddenly collapsed. This year's got to be different. I am confident our coaching staff and players are able to avoid it!
     
  5. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
  6. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Argentina are super-fortunate that Ecuador lost at home to Colombia! They need to get 4 points above Ecuador before MD18 because I don't see them getting a result in Quito and they have a worse goal differential than Ecuador. That said, the Argies have back-to-back home matches against Venezuela and Peru after they play Uruguay. Even factoring-in their rubbish form, one figures that they would still get at least six points from those 3 games. Which is why Ecuador couldn't afford that home loss yesterday.
     
  7. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    TBF argies needed help from the ref in their game against chile ... didn't really deserve those points but hey-ho
     
  8. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    The hell's wrong with you!! I know Argentine football is unique and better than anything else, but it's not healthy your obsession with Argentina. You need help, son.
     
  9. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In addition to who I put in my first post, here are three more teams have who done worse than expected:

    Netherlands is in fourth and is 3 points behind second.

    Wales is undefeated and in third, but because of their 4 draws they are 4 points behind Ireland and Serbia, who are tied for first, with Serbia (who didn't qualify for Euro 2016) leading on goal differential. Wales has played 3 out of 5 games at home.

    Albania is in fourth. They're not elite, but they won a game in Euro 2016. They have played 3 out of 5 games at home. They will have a hard time moving up to third considering they trail Israel by 3 points and they lost hosting Israel. They're 7 points behind Spain and Italy, who are tied for first, with Spain leading on goal differential.
     
  10. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    For every post of mine in which the argies get a mention, you make a gorillion Mexico fangirl posts, chihuahua lover ... usually argies show their gratitude because those posts are quality, even when it's criticism (but you're a burger)

    Pipiolo ... did the argies need help from the ref or not in the game against Chile? ... it might not be enough as argies lost against Bolivia (already eliminated) ... *audibly s************s* ... and messi's 4 game suspension. Even if argies somehow manage to "qualify" for russia2018, nothing is expected of them.
     
  11. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Something is always expected of Argentina, it's why they are Argentina.
     
    BocaFan repped this.
  12. Marfty

    Marfty New Member

    Dec 24, 2016
    It is a daunting prospect that Argentina and Netherlands may not qualify while would see crap useless teams the likes of Iran and Saudi qualify instead.
    But that's the World Cup for you.
     
  13. guri

    guri Member+

    Apr 10, 2002
    Wait... It gets even "better" in 2026 :sick:
     
    EvanJ repped this.
  14. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Iran is the best team in Asia right now so if Iran are rubbish, no team from the AFC deserves to be in the World Cup!
     
    Mani and Zandi360 repped this.
  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There are UEFA and CONMEBOL teams who won't qualify who are better than AFC teams who will qualify, but Netherlands is fourth in their group, and I don't feel sorry for a UEFA team that finishes in the bottom half.
     
  16. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    It does feel so weird that there is a strong possibility that the runner -up and third place teams from WC 2014 could be left out of Russia watching on TV.

    (But I won't shed a tear for either of them.)
     
    MerlinRM repped this.
  17. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    I would tend to agree, but not with the current coach. They look like 11 strangers on the field. It looks like the Fed is as corrupt and incompetent as their government.
     
  18. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Even with Bauza around there would be expectations for Argentina. Just too strong a pedigree to overlook. However, it seems confirmed that Bauza has been let go and talks with Sampaoli to take over.
     
  19. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    Its ironic that Argentina and the Netherlands arguably produce the most world class managers per capita of any country in the world, yet lately they've both had muppets heading their national teams.
     
  20. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    I know it's Brazil, but I find them to be surprising. They've been dominant since Tite took over. For them to be 9 points clear in such a difficult group is impressive. Easily the best Brazil in at least 10-15 years ...

    In Europe I find Serbia to be the most impressive. They're still unbeaten in a group that includes 3 teams from the recent Euros. They're finally living up to expectations.

    As for disappointments, the Netherlands of course. Although this shouldn't be that surprising if you really look at their roster. They don't have the talent to be an automatic WC team. It's sad to see how far they've fallen just since 2014.
     

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