I used a website with simulations to get a probability of each country being eliminated in each round and winning the World Cup. Then I took the reciprocal of each probability to make points where predicting less likely outcomes are worth more points. For Morocco, the team most likely to be eliminated in the Group Stage (according to simulations, not me), you get 1.18 for correctly predicting that they were eliminated in the Group Stage. For Tunisia, the least likely to win the World Cup, you get 2,777.78 points for correctly predicting them winning the World Cup. For Brazil, the team who is most likely to reach every round and win the World Cup, you get 12.61 points for correctly predicting them to be eliminated in the Group Stage and 4.12 points for correctly predicting them to win the World Cup. Each person will start the World Cup with a different potential score depending on how likely your picks were. I attached a screen shot of a spreadsheet saying how many points every correct prediction would be worth. I hope people will participate. @Paul Calixte Can you sticky this topic?