Why the path to victory for Republicans is aLOT more complicated than "appeal to Latinos"

Discussion in 'Elections' started by superdave, Nov 8, 2012.

  1. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Nothing stopping them at all. I meant my comment seriously.

    I fully expect the GOP to adjust its code messaging. The GOP will tout Hispanics as hard-working family people with conservative social values. They are the new pioneers -- people who are the natural successors to the hardy folk who populated the Great American West. We need to get government out of their way and let them do their thing. We need to get government to stop overtaxing them and over-regulating them and from conducting redistribution programs that penalize them for their hard work. We spend too much time taking care of the takers. We need to attach more value to the makers.

    This material writes itself, maybe I'll join the GOP as a speechwriter.
     
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  3. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    This is a solid parody of Libertarian "thinking." Literally laugh-outloud funny in its best spots. Seriously, you could get a job at The Onion.
     
  4. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    E.J. Dionne suggested, in today's column, "We would prefer that you weren't here. But as long as you are, how about voting for us?" Actually, I believe he was quoting a GOP operative as saying that they can't just go out and say this. Still it made me laugh.
     
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  5. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    I think that by 2020 the Repugs will be in trouble.. IMHO 2050 is too far in the future and the same way that the trends reversed in 1980 and 2010, they can reverse again by that time.

    In 2020 with Hispanics counting for 30 million of the estimated voters (and even winning more than 60% of the white vote) the GOP will need to at least break even with the Latino vote, a hard task given the current trend.
     
  6. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    At this point, I'm like, what the hell are you smoking?????

    Oh.

    Libertarians will start being a factor in politics when their ideas stop being incredibly unpopular. Funny how that works.
     
  7. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Yeah, yeah, yeah. Who says it's true 100% of the time?

    The Reeps are all about climate change denial, evolution denial, science denial, the crucial role of unions in work force effectiveness, taxes on the makers/job creators, etc. All shit policy, but it helps them win over the moran vote.

    At the expense of the urban, educated vote.

    Go back 15 years and California Latinos voted more heavily for the GOP. But once it became obvious that they were just fodder for the right, ba-bye.

    What has happened since Bush '04?

    The GOP has gone faaaaaaar right and one of the key issues has been immigration.

    Now. I've said earlier that Latinos aren't one-issue voters, so it's not the GOP stance that kills it for them. It's the fact that their stance:

    a. doesn't address the concerns of conservative Latinos let alone liberals and moderates
    b. isn't based on reality
    c. shows open disdain for Latinos and the immigrant experience

    And the latter is what drives all moderate Latinos away from the GOP.

    This comes down to branding, and it hurts the GOP brand big time.

    I don't see the GOP winning the city vote any time soon, and the reason mirrors exactly why they are failing amongst Latinos as well.

    Part of the reason why Romney did worse than Bush is that every month some 50,000 Latinos reach voting age. That's 4 million voters over 8 years, and another 2 million by the next election.

    So from 2000 to 2016, that's 8 million voters, all young and still young. Young, Latino, urban.

    Good luck with that demographic.
     
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  8. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You all underestimate the abilities of the Democratic Party to self destruct. Which is probably the only hope the Reps do have going forward.
     
  9. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well I don't know if it is self destructing or just polling noise.

    But demographics may not be destiny after all.



    https://news.gallup.com/poll/391733/biden-job-approval-down-among-younger-generations.aspx



    https://news.yahoo.com/why-democrats-losing-hispanic-voters-090135152.html


    Fox news Latino style?

    https://www.barrons.com/news/conservative-media-outlet-seeks-to-win-over-us-latinos-01651110907


    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3270602-hispanics-are-abandoning-biden-in-droves-heres-why/




    Democrats will probably continue to win the Latino vote, but the margins will probably become smaller and smaller.
     
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  10. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Since the majority of this board is white and left-leaning, you should probably use the word "LatinX."
     
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  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    White folk and woke LatinX people trying to tell other Latinos what to do, may not go down well in the Latino community.

     
  12. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Also, how do you say "what are your pronouns"in Latinx?
     
  13. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Latinx Ite Domum.

     
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  14. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    538 article on how it may not matter how racist Republicans go, some Latinos will continue to vote for them, in some cases because they may agree.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ight-not-turn-off-conservative-latino-voters/


    Some other articles that were linked on the 538 article.

    So about 1/3 of Latinos say too much attention is paid to racial issues, about 1/3 say too little.

    But about half say too little attention is paid to Hispanics. So there has to be a chunk of Latinos that think too much attention is being paid the the "wrong" races.

    upload_2022-5-18_10-25-28.png

    https://www.pewresearch.org/hispani...uch-or-too-little-attention-in-the-u-s-today/
     
  15. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Latinos are becoming more assimilated, just like southern & eastern Europeans did a few generations ago. The fact that the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters is shrinking (relatively speaking) really isn't surprising when you reflect that not too long ago, it was just as surprising to see Catholic and "ethnic" white voters doing the same.
     
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  16. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Racist Latinos? Shocking!

    Seriously…I suppose we can’t expect people in the US to know anything about the racist history of Latin American countries, which btw, is where most Latinos come from.
     
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  17. Pønch

    Pønch Saprissista

    Aug 23, 2006
    Donde siempre
    There are racist dipshits everywhere, for sure. No country in the world can claim otherwise.
     
  18. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Right, but the idea that Latinos will favor Democrats because Republicans say racist shit may not be based in facts.

    Some Latinos may agree with Republicans and vote for them in greater number.

    Working class Latinos may leave the Democrat party just like working class whites are doing.
     
  19. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    But . . . but . . . "demography is destiny," isn't it?

    ISN'T IT???????????
     
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  20. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    There’s a reason that the GQP’s main weapons are gerrymandering, voter suppression and outright cheating.

    Even with some Latin voters switching to Red, Dem voters are a larger majority with each passing election, and the white vote share keeps shrinking.
     
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  21. Chesco United

    Chesco United Member+

    DC United
    Jun 24, 2001
    Chester County, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    I do. My dad's original language was Spanish, as he was born in Honduras. When he returned to Rhode Island, his snobby relatives were horrified that he only spoke Spanish and basically got his native language out of him. When I took Spanish in school, I hoped that he could help me with my struggles with the language. Sadly, he was little help. Now, I teach him. It's sort of like the Sui Generis song "El tuerto y los ciegos".
     
  22. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  23. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Right. Sui Generis was amazing for their profound critique of our Argentine and Latin American society. It’s hard for me to believe that those lyrics were written by two kids in their early 20s.
     
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  24. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    I'm all for an election day surprise...



     
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  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Economist with more on the Latino vote.

    Basically the same recycled story, interviewing the same people.

    We will see this November if they were into something, or just bullish.


    https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/07/democrats-have-a-hispanic-problem
     

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