Why Hard C and Bradley will never predict games well...

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Casper, May 14, 2003.

  1. Casper

    Casper Member+

    Mar 30, 2001
    New York
    Is it just me, or are these guys stacking the deck against themselves with their predictions? If you assume three potential outcomes per game (win for team A, win for team B, or a draw) you have at the simplest analysis a 1 in 3 chance of being correct (except Marc and Jeff are short of even that hit ratio, because as Jeff openly acknowledges, he sucks at predictions).

    Adjusting your 1 in 3 odds for the fact that you aren't picking against a spread like you would be in football, and maybe you should be able to do better than 33% -- but in a league with this much parity, probably not by much.
     
  2. mpruitt

    mpruitt Member

    Feb 11, 2002
    E. Somerville
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    with the way things have been going this season they'd probably have better luck if they just picked each game to finish in a draw.
     
  3. Northside Rovers

    Jan 28, 2000
    Austin TX
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  4. lurking

    lurking Member+

    Feb 9, 2002
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, although bradley is almost back to random accuracy levels.
     

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