--------------- Does Sacramento become that team? Does anyone remember what their fee was back when they first got the MSL ok? This is why I think we stop at 30 for a while, $1B is a lot of cash + stadium + academy etc. Now of course and I agree with what has been said elsewhere, I am pretty sure if I called MLS and said I had $1B to spend, I was in a city the league wouldn't mind being in, maybe I even had a stadium or could get one, I am sure the league would take my call. I will be interested in how many calls MLS takes in regards to independents playing in MLS Next as opposed to those calls going to USL-1
The only towns left in California are Sacramento and San Francisco. They are making noise in Oakland but no one really wants a pro sports team there. Same with Fresno. So we need a potential owner in SF or Sac if California wants a fifth team.
There's never going to be a MLS team in San Francisco. They could share Levi's Stadium but given that it's 10 minutes from PayPal Park the Earthquakes may not be too happy.
Driving down Coleman Ave, it seems even closer than that. With traffic though, it takes about ten minutes. No way will MLS have or even consider a team in San Jose and another one in Santa Clara.
If Sacramento comes in, will they be grandfathered the old $320 million expansion fee or will they now have to pay $600 mil?
There is no doubt at some stage MLS will expand to 32 clubs. But, no one when that will be. The main for expansion has been for national footprint and increasing the Nielsen rating in order to establish as case for increase in boardcast revenues. Also, the expansion fee don't hurt. But the more you slice the pie the more revenue sharing decreases. It can also cause a devalue in the value of each franchise, if expansion happens to quickly, this is simple economics. At some point the franchise fee will no longer out balance the distribution of shared revenues. This maybe reason for a cap on expansion within the NFL and MLB. Currently, the league with tha addition of San Diego, has the national footprint and a 10 year agreement for boardcast rights with Apple TV, which will definitely slow expansion, also with this in mind it may actually stop expansion at 32 clubs (owners not wanting to split the pie anymore). When reviewing the current sport market size rating for Nielsen, there are only three markets which stand-out to catch MLS owners attention for clubs 31 and 32. They are Phoenix at No. 11, Tampa-St. Pete at No.13 and Detroit at no.14 are all in the top 15 markets without an MLS club. However, when taking a more detail look which includes climate (heat index) and saturation of the sport markets, really only two standout. Therefore a case can be made for Detroit and Tampa-St. Pete as clubs 31 and 32. Granted Phoenix is a larger market, it is also considered to be over extended sports marketplace. After that I really don't see any other markets which MLS would be interested. Along the current boardcast agreement agreement with till 2033, there would be no real push to expand till 2032. So, therefore remain patience "Expansion Hawks" it may be awhile.
Actually, it maybe $1B, which paralells NHL future expansion fees. Which maybe considered a bagain with NFL expansion estimated at $5B, NBA at $2.5B and MLB at $4B.
In terms of market coverage, MLB and MLS are the only big 5 leagues (6 including CFL) that do not have a team in a market below 2 mil population (by CSA/MSA polulation). Big 5 leagues by markets/cities: 32: NFL, NHL 30: MLB, NBA 29: MLS (30 with SD) 9: CFL # Teams in Tier 1 markets (2): NY/LA 5: NHL 4: MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS 0: CFL # Teams in Tier 2 markets (10) (6 mil+): DC/Balt, Chicago, SJ/SF/Oak, Dallas, Boston, Houston, Philly, Atlanta, Miami, Toronto. 13: MLB (12 after As move, 2 in DC, Chi) 10: NFL (2 in DC/Balt, no Toronto), NBA, MLS 8: NHL 1: CFL # Teams in Tier 3 markets (6) (4-6 mil): Detroit, Phx, Seattle, Orlando, Montreal, Minny. 5: NHL (no Orl) 4: NFL, MLB, NBA, MLS 1: CFL # Teams in Tier 4 Markets (5) (3+ mil): Denver, Cleveland, Tampa, Portland, SD (not counting TJ): 4: MLB 3: NFL, NBA, MLS 2: NHL 0: CFL # Teams in Tier 5 Markets (17) (2+ mil): St. Louis, Charlotte, Salt Lake, Sacramento, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, San Antonio, Columbus, Kansas City, Indy, Austin, Las Vegas, San Juan, Cincy, Raleigh, Nashville, Milwaukee. 9: MLS 7: NFL 6: NBA, NHL 5: MLB 1: CFL # Teams in Tier 6 Markets (1+ mil): 0: MLB, MLS 3: NFL (Jax, NO, Buff), NBA (NO, OKC, Memphis), CFL (Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton) 4: NHL (Ott, Cal, Edm, Buffalo). # of teams in Sub 1 mil markets: 0: MLB, NBA, MLS 1: NFL (Green Bay) 2: NHL (Quebec, Winnipeg) 3: CFL (Winnipeg, Hamilton, Regina). Pro sports saturation level for prospective MLS CSA/MSAs. Big 5 sports, NFL or CFL for pointy. 1. DC/Balt: 7 teams (MLS in DC) 2. SJ/SF/Oak: 6 (soon 5) (MLS in SJ). ---------- 3. Detroit: 4 (all but MLS) 4. Phoenix: 4 (all but MLS) ----------- 5. Cleveland: 3 (no NHL, MLS) 6. Tampa: 3 (no NBA, MLS) --------------- 7. Sacramento: 1 (NBA only) 8. Pittsburgh: 3 (no NBA, MLS) 9. San Antonio: 1 (NBA only) 10. Indianapolis: 2 (NFL, NBA only) 11. Las Vegas: 2 + A's? (no NBA, MLS) 12. San Juan: 0 13. Raleigh: 0 14. Milwaukee: 2 (MLB, NBA). -----------
I guess there's a fine line between saturation being good or not. And then there's the existing congestion. An MLS team in Cleveland would be great, but it's not going to work with Columbus and Cincinnati already in state. Same with Tampa, San Antonio, and maybe Sacramento, I guess. I'd guess Phoenix/Detroit for saturated opportunities, and then Pittsburgh/Indianapolis where they can maybe become the third biggest option.
Good catch. My brain has the Nordiques imprinted on it, but that is no longer true. I also screwed up Carolina, they are based in Raleigh, not Charlotte. As to the congestion issue, I am a big believer that two MLS teams can co-exist wonderfully in close proximity. LAG/LAFC Traffico. NYRB/NYCFC. Hell in Real. Philly is 90 miles from NY. So, I think Tampa, Cleveland, Raleigh, San Antonio, Baltimore, and SF/Oak would all ne very much viable with the right offer. I am sure the league would prefer the bigger markets (Det/Phx) and/or bring in new states (MI, AZ, NV, IN, etc), but the strength of the offer/bid is gonna be decisive.
Again, as I live here and it’s the area I know mostly about, the towns of SF/Oak have no interested buyers willing to come forth with an expansion bid. I mean there is a lot of noise from people here and there but never anything concrete. SF mayor London Breed said they could make a soccer stadium where the Westfield Mall is in downtown but the entire area is too small unless you go up. There would be no parking or freeway access and it’s totally unrealistic. I think she only said what she did because of the Women’s World Cup and wanting to bring the Bay Area woman’s pro team there. They however , announced that they will be playing 50 miles south at the Quakes Stadium in San Jose. Oakland is a nightmare. The Warriors, Raiders have moved and now the A’s are about to go to Las Vegas as well. The Roots of the USL are there but they don’t have the money to go MLS or build a stadium. The cost of land in the entire Bay Area is ridiculously expensive and if there is a piece of available real estate, someone always snatches it up to build high priced condos.
Nor-Cal would be well served with SJ & SAC in MLS and Monterey & Oakland in USL. That's 4 professional level teams. Back to other threads, MLS expansion is going to be very interesting based on the expansion fee. San Diego paid a lot of $$$, but has a ready built stadium. Most other cities may have to pay the fee and build a stadium, a tall order. How many other deep pocket owners are out there willing to do that for soccer? Someone else posted that maybe the next wave of MLS expansion is their 3rd division independent teams. I am not even sure the fee on that, even if you suddenly brought on a lot of teams, will keep the cash flowing. Personally, I still think MLS has an ulterior motive on the D-3 thing, as its a direct competition to USL-1. Will be very interesting to see what comes up in the next several years considering the buzz with Copa America- World Club Cup and the World Cup.
I'm not sure when and where MLS will next expand, but my gut tells me it maybe not be till 2030 or later, unless someone comes by willing to pay a $1B expansion fee plus have another $2B to invest in a stadium, training grounds and an academy system. It's getting to point that an expansion bid will require two or more Billionaires. My feeling is there maybe only be a few Billionaries willing to make this kind of investment. I remember reading an interview with Dan and Clark Hunt a couple years ago, which they stated that they think MLS will end expansion at 32 clubs simliar to the NFL. They also stated, that since MLS has a single entity ownership structure, which means all revenues are shared with all investors, they felt that the distribution of revenue won't be economically feasible to be divides with more than 31 other investors. So, with this in mind I am sure they won't want to split the Apple Plus $2.5B media deal more than 30 ways, so this will also contribute to a slowdown in expansion till the close to the end of the Apple media rights contact. Additionaly, since Messi showed up their is a push to increase the salary cap and add additional DPs. So I would have to say that there are only two more seats left at the big table. That brings up the big question where and with who will that be? The Soccer Don has only mentioned Phoenix, Detroit and Tampa Bay after the annoucement of San Diego. Any ideas where MLS goes to fill the last two seats?
In a perfect Don Garber world, I think a couple things happen before the next round of expansion. 1) SSS for Chicago & NE, in Chicago/Boston. Get every franchise maximizing their potential. 2) Capitalize on World Cup 2026 buzz and Messi mania. It would go something like this: Freedom Park is scheduled to open in Miami in 2025. The last year of Messi's deal. There is an option for another year to take him thru the 2026 WC, where he is planning to play for Argentina. 2027 will mark the opening of NYFC's new home. The US has also submitted a bid for the 2027 WWC. Somewhere in that 2025-2027 window, if all goes well, it will be maximum soccer buzz in the States. I think that is the time. Thiugh it could be sooner.
I always wonder how a core group of USMNT players would do in MLS. I haven’t' seen such a club since the 1998 All Star game featuring USA and the MLS World team. The USA won 6-1.... 1998 MLS All-Star Game -