agreed. 30 might actually be the good number to stand pat at for awhile, since those three are clearly head and shoulders the best candidates for the next round. 31, 32 can wait for like, Raleigh/Charlotte and Vegas
I wouldn't be too sure about Sacramento. Burkle has some Weinstein type issues in his past so he might not be eagerly welcomed by the existing owners.
If it came down to Vegas or Phoenix the league hands down would select Phoenix. It's a huge market which helps with TV ratings and fills the national whole in the southwest.
Agreed. We differ on what happens next. 32 by 2026. 30 team, 2 conf for 2022: East: DC, NE, NYRB, NYCFC, Philly, Mon, TFC, ATL, ORL, Mia, CLB, Cincy, Nash, Chi, Minny. West: LAG, LAFC, SJ, Sac, Port, Sea, Van, PHX, RSL, Col, FCD, Hou, Austin, SKC, STL. Look for MLS to want Det in the east + 1 more west team (SA, SD, Vegas, SF/Oak) to round it out prior to WC 2026. If they look wobbly, then Indy + the SE bids have life. Once they get to 32, then a pause to consider.
I totally disagree with you. The league is no longer interested in Detroit (because of the bait and switch with the stadium), especially with St. Louis coming in to fill-out the Midwest. 30 is the number not 32!!! There are no viable ownership groups at this time after team 30.
I wouldn't say the league isn't interested in Detroit as a market, they've just soured on the current ownership group due to the Ford Field switch. However, that doesn't mean Detroit wouldn't jump back up the list if a new ownership group appeared or if the existing ownership group went back to a SSS or convinced MLS Ford Field was more viable. There isn't any particular reason why MLS couldn't have a team in St. Louis and Detroit.
The three cities right now on the doom ledge are Detroit, San Antonio, San Diego, and Indianapolis. From popular vote dismissal, to ford field switcheroo, to being fundamentally screwed by MLS giving a team to Austin, the aforementioned are toast. Sacramento, St Louis, and Phoenix all look pretty. Las Vegas, Raleigh/Charlotte, and Tampa might have a hope and a prayer (heavily favored being the first two)
Things change so fast in MLS expansion news that I don't even want to look or speculate past 30 clubs.
Not remotely toast. Detroit is the biggest market out there (assuming PHX in at 28/29/30). Good regional rivalry for TFC, CLB, and even Chi. St. Louis is the plains, not even close to the Great Lakes midwest. Agree that MLS soured on the switcheroo. But the market is still desireable and the ownership group still has deep pockets. Ditto in SA. The market (especially the growth), only 1 pro team (Spurs), and the ownership are all top notch. They owners just hate MLS now. But if the Crew/FCC thing works well (and I think it will), then there is no reason why Austin getting a team precludes SA getting one. The relationship between the parties is what needs repaired, the fundamentals there are still strong. So strong, that if Austin does fairly well, I think SA could be #31/32, especially with SD faltering. Count me as one who thinks SA already has assurances they are back in the mix (dons foil hat). If Austin succeeds as their rival, if they fail as the landing spot after PSV gets the boot. One thing I do agree on is that after Sac, STL, and PHX, none of the other bids are close to getting over the line. Announcing where #31 and #32 will be be a couple years off. The fact of them coming will be sooner. 2024/25 for starting play. #28 announced before summer, possibly sooner if it is Sac. Plans for 30 announced soon thereafter. #29 (likely STL if not #28) before the end of 2019, maybe #30 as well. Plans/hints of going to 32 within a year. Soccer is viewed as growing. The investors will be there. Already are for 32. If not more. Tons of markets that can support teams.
Man.. I dunno.. San Antonio and Austin are like an hour drive apart. That just seems way too close together considering the populations.
I doubt Austin FC is counting on drawing a lot of people from San Antonio. So I think SA could sink or swim on its own merits.
In my opinion with Austin coming into the league San Antonio will never become apart of the league. It would be like the NHL expanding to Tacoma after awarding a franchise to Seattle. Calk them up as a dead bid.
How about Indy Eleven? New owners, Stadium idea. I posted this in the other thread not realizing this one existed. http://eleven-park.com/ https://ussoccerplayers.com/2019/01/indy-eleven-and-mls-expansion.html https://www.ibj.com/articles/72199-update-indy-eleven-adds-seven-owners-to-help-with-stadium-push
The ownership is blowing smoke and looking for government hand outs to build a stadium. In addition even with the additional members in the ownership group they lack the financial resources to be seriously considered. Also with clubs in Columbus, Cincinnati and soon St. Louis the Midwest is no longer a priority,
It would only be like that if Tacoma were bigger than Seattle. Other than San Marcos, there aren't a lot of people in between SA and Austin and they're well established as separate markets with their own TV, etc.
Not to mention, I have to think that Garber et al are wondering if there might be another Seattle/Atlanta scenario out there somewhere. Obviously, the league's preference for a downtown, dedicated SSS comes with a pretty damned big asterisk.
Any city with 2 or more big 4 teams is worthy of serious consideration to join MLS, assuming there is an SSS stadium plan that has received approvals.
Looks like the Phoenix area prefers Royal Rumble 2019 to #usmnt vs. Panama. https://t.co/JnLHMbilBh pic.twitter.com/7k0hN64M8C— Jeff Carlisle (@JeffreyCarlisle) January 28, 2019 Phoenix..........do you wanna get on the radar for an MLS expansion team?? cuzzzzz.......the attendance today is not how you get on the list for an MLS expansion team. I dont care the circumstances, even against a Panama B team, that was WOEFULLY inadequate. Last placed WNBA teams get better attendance than that
Seriously? Just stop already. Has a January friendly EVER drawn a big crowd? By your standards the low attendance of last years January friendly at the Stub Hub Center LA shouldn't have gotten a second MLS team. Let's be honest that a USA C Team vs. Panama C Team. If it had been USA-Mexico, or Mexico - most anyone.............there would have been a very decent crowd there.
I won't use the US-Panama game as a measuring stick for support of a MLS team in Phoenix, either. Time to move on. Especially with the game being played in Glendale when most the population and support comes from the other side of town in Scottsdale. Which is were the new MLS stadium is slated to be built..
There is no such thing as a doom ledge. League could easily go to 36 and maintain the current structure. Or 48 if they take an NL/AL baseball approach (two parallel leagues of 24). It is amazing to me that after a decade of hearing MLS talking about taking a break/pause from expansion & never doing it, be it at 16, 20, 24, or now 28, that ANYONE could still believe it. 30 sure. I am sure they will stop after that. I guess one is born every minute. One of the advantages, soccer wise, of being such a large nation is the capability to have more top flight teams than other countries. Without having 6 in one city to get to 20. I know MLS/USSF do not always align on their priorities, but up to a point this is good for both. MLS gains a bigger footprint and USSF gains a bigger talent pool. Yes, the lower divisions play a part here as well. And the house is getting in order (somewhat) there as well. The most pro teams since 1997 this year. More stable USL. Virtually all of MLS with a USL2 team or an affiliate. 32 at a bare min. 34/36 seems most likely. And they could go higher once/if they give up on playing every team every year. Possibly much higher. Lets take a look at the candidates: PHX, Det, SD, STL, Sac, Charlotte, Raleigh, SA, Indy, Tampa, and Vegas. All over $2 million population. All already support at least 1 big 4 pro team. All save Detroit & STL with good to excellent to outrageous growth rates. And where a city lacks in one area, it makes up in another. STL has slow growth, but has been a college soccer hotbed for decades, lacks NFL and NBA, and is fairly good sized ($3 mil), and has SKC as a rival. Det has size and built in rivals close by (CLB, TFC, even Chicago). Two are bigger fish: PHX and Det at 5 million plus. My point is, each city checks enough boxes (size, supports pro sports, demograhics, growth, lack of big 4 competition, regional rivalry, soccer hotbed, etc) to make it a desireable location. Having deep pocketed owners who are committed, a good stadium situation, and solid support from the business community (sponsorships) is what gets you in. I do not see MLS turning bids down that clear all those hurdles anytime soon. 32 by '26. After that, maybe a pause. 32 divides neatly into two conferences (16) and four divisions (8) both with even numbers. The next limit that does that is 40. If you go past 32 you have to give up on at least one of: even numbered conferences, playing every team every year, and/or a 34 game schedule. If that bugs MLS, they pause to consider. But they are mostly NFL people, so it won't. Cutting the pie into more/smaller pieces will. If that can be offset with expansion fees, non-soccer/other revenue streams (tv deals, sponsorships, merch, concessions, concerts, increased league $$, etc), then they mind less. And the beat goes on. Sacramento, St. Louis, and Phoenix seem closest right now, but things can change fast (Charlotte & SD).