OK, with one game left and as far as I can tell: In La Liguilla: Pachuca Toluca UNAM Tigres Out: Monterrey Puebla Atlas Querétaro (6 freaking points!) Chiapas San Luis Irapuato Veracruz Still fighting: Atlante Tecos Santos América Morelia Cruz Azul * Necaxa Guadalajara. *not sure Is this right?
Chivas are in if they win against San Luis. That is because Toluca an Santos face each other. As for Veracruz they are virtually goners since they need for America and Santos to lose and for Santos to either spank Toluca or they totally demolish Irapuato. In goal diferentials Toluca has +10 and Veracruz -5.
Cruz Azul can only make the reclassification, unless Toluca loses and Cruz Azul wins the goal differential(not likely, considering Toluca currently has a 13-goal lead). If Morelia loses, all Cruz Azul has to do is tie Tecos. If Morelia wins, Cruz Azul is eliminated no matter what they do.
Scenarios for America: They must beat Puebla. Guadalajara must lose or tie against San Luis. Toluca must lose or tie Santos, with America then overcoming goal differential (currently Toluca is up 5). Morelia must not beat Pachuca by more than nine goals. If all this happens, America will qualify for reclassification with 28 points. Sorry Americanistas, but I think that 6-0 loss to Toluca will probably keep Los Aguilas out of the playoffs.
I've noticed that some of you have some wrong info, so let me post what I know is correct: In the final 8: Pachuca (33 pts, win Group 1) UNAM (35 pts, win Group 2) Tigres (37 pts, win Group 3) Atlante (30 pts, clinched spot in top two of Group 4) Qualified for reclassification, but with a chance to qualify for final 8: Tecos (31 pts) Toluca (27 pts) Necaxa (29 pts) The only way Tecos will have to play reclassification is if they lose to Cruz Azul and Santos beat Toluca. Toluca can avoid reclassification by beating Santos. If they tie, they will play reclassification if Guadalajara beats San Luis or if Morelia beats Pachuca by more than 13 goals. If Toluca loses, they must hope Guadalajara loses or ties San Luis, or America doesn't beat Santos, or Morelia doesn't beat Pachuca, or Cruz Azul doesn't beat Tecos by at least 13 goals to avoid reclassification. Necaxa will have to play reclassification if they lose to Atlas while Guadalajara beats San Luis and beats Necaxa in goal differential (currently +4 for Necaxa). Still alive to go straight to the final 8: Santos (28 pts, +11) Guadalajara (26 pts, +1) Santos will make the final eight if they beat Toluca and Tecos loses to Cruz Azul. Guadalajara can make it by beating San Luis, Necaxa losing to Atlas, and making up a +4 goal differential to Necaxa. Still alive for reclassification only: America (25 pts, +5) Morelia (25 pts, -3) Cruz Azul (24 pts, -3) America must beat Puebla, then have Guadalajara lose to San Luis, and Toluca lose or tie against Santos. If Toluca ties, America must beat Puebla by more than five goals. Also, Morelia must not make up what is currently a -8 goal differential to America. For Morelia, all they have to do is beat Pachuca. If they lose, they must hope Cruz Azul loses to Tecos. If Morelia ties, Cruz Azul must win. Out: Veracruz (24 pts) Monterrey (22 pts) Irapuato (22 pts) Puebla (20 pts) Jaguares (20 pts) Atlas (18 pts) San Luis (11 pts) Queretaro (6 pts)