Who's going to the Big Dance?

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by recsoc, Nov 12, 2003.

  1. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    You can visit www.soccerratings.com to get info on records, schedule strength, computer rankings...
    I won't pretend to know the whole country - so will predict the South:
    Rock Solid:
    1) (3)Wake 15-3 (8th rated schedule)
    2) (5)UNC 12-3-4 (6th)
    3) (21)FIU 13-3-2 (72nd) - already have automatic as Atlantic Soccer champs
    4) Southern Conference winner (no at-large/real longshot only if lots from the South go):
    (41)Davidson 12-5-2 (99th) - 0-3 vs top 25
    (48)College of Charleston 11-3-3 (111th) - 0-0 vs top 25
    (64)UNC-G 9-7-2 (58th) -1-3 vs. top 25

    That is 4 guarantees from the South.
    5 teams if ACC winner is from South region and not Wake
    I believe that Big South (Coastal Carolina) is considered South Atlantic Region
    The rest of the south look very shaky to me - I think all of these teams need automatic bids or else.....- the records below assume one more loss in conference play:
    (29) - Clemson 8 losses 2 ties, 1-5 vs. top 25
    (46) - UAB 5 losses - 4 ties, 0-1-2 vs. top 25
    (49) - USC 7 losses (still have FIU) - no quality wins
    (77) - NC State 8 losses, 2 ties - 0-3-2 vs. top 25

    The rest of the south is rated below 50 on the computer - I can't imagine them sneaking that high up to get an at large when only 48 teams go.
    There are 23 automatic bids and 25 at-large.

    Who am I missing? What other conferences have autos that might add to the # of temas in the south? How many from the South went last year?
     
  2. LuvDaBears

    LuvDaBears New Member

    Sep 4, 2002
    USA
    I don't think Davidson and College of Charleston will make it, since they didn't beat anybody.
     
  3. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    That is my point - one of them (or another SoCon team) will get an automatic bid from the SoCon tournament - and take one of the South region spots - it is doubtful any SoCon team will qualify for an at large.
     
  4. PB04

    PB04 New Member

    Aug 27, 2002
    That computer system is full of inconsistencies - especially after the first 20 or so teams. The best way to evaluate teams is to look at their individual schedules and their overall and head-to-head results.
     
  5. fatman

    fatman New Member

    Nov 14, 2003
    Hoosier Country
    Thought id post my final four predictions

    South- North Carolina (I'd put Wake Forest except for the lose of their all american keeper)
    West- UCLA (no contest)
    Midwest- Indiana
    East- Bucknell (sneak threw the first rounds beat Maryland 5-0 on 5 Eric Brunton goals; if this doesn't pan out St. John's)

    Semis:
    UCLA 2 St. John's 1
    Indiana 2 North Carolina 0

    Final:
    Indiana 1 UCLA 0
    Summary: UCLA can't seem to break threw the stifling IU defense led by Drew Moor. Ned Grabovoy goes across UCLA's backline nutmeging all four defenders then calmly chips the keeper to put IU ahead.
     
  6. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    Re: Who's going to the Big Dance? (R)

    UPDATED w/ results....
    I won't pretend to know the whole country - so will predict the South:
    Rock Solid:
    1) Wake 16-4 at large
    2) UNC 12-3-5 at large
    3) FIU 13-3-2 automatic as Atlantic Soccer champs
    4) Southern Conference winner Dav/Fur vs. CofC/UNC-G
    5) Atlantic Sun winner - FAU vs. UCF
    6) Conference USA - UNC-C vs SLU (only if UNC-C wins will another South region team get in)


    That is 5 (and maybe 6) guarantees from the South.
    I believe that Big South (Coastal Carolina) is considered South Atlantic Region - so not counting them in the South.

    The rest of the south look very shaky to me - I don't know if the South is strong enough this year to send 6 or 7 teams to the dance....the records below assume one more loss in conference play:
    Comp Rating - Team - Record - Schedule Strength
    (29) - Clemson 8 losses 2 ties, 1-5 vs. top 25
    (41) - Davidson 13-6-2 (99th) - 0-3 vs top 25
    (48) - College of Charleston 12-4-3 (111th) - 0-0 vs top 25
    (64) - UNC-G 10-8-2 (58th) -1-3 vs. top 25
    (46) - UAB 10-5-5, (90th) -1-2-2 vs. top 25 (DONE)
    (49) - USC 7 losses (still have FIU) - no quality wins
    (77) - NC State 8 losses, 2 ties - 0-3-2 vs. top 25

    The rest of the south is rated below 50 on the computer - I can't imagine them sneaking that high up to get an at large when only 48 teams go.
    There are 23 automatic bids and 25 at-large.

    Who am I missing? How many from the South went last year?
     
  7. MarioKempes

    MarioKempes Member+

    Real Madrid, DC United
    Aug 3, 2000
    Raleigh, NC
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Um, are you forgetting about #1 Maryland?
     
  8. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    Maryland is not in the South region -they are South Atlantic.
     
  9. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    UPdaterd: Who's going to the Big Dance? (R)

     

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