The discussion about the seeding formula led me to think about how the teams that just miss out on being seeded would be the ones that would make up any group of death. Alternatively, it could be a group composed of the top teams from each pot. Clearly a seed would be drawn into the group: Germany, Brazil, Spain, Argentina, England, Italy, Mexico, France (Before anyone yammers about how Mexico won't be seeded, please acquaint yourself with the facts https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=87489 That leaves the likely top European sides not seeded as Netherlands, Turkey, Denmark, probably the Czech Republic. The other teams close to getting seeded from the rest of the world include the US, South Korea, Belgium (ick). Then of course, there's the cachet teams like Colombia, Nigeria, Sweden, Portugal, that are expected to do things, but may or may not. Clearly, a group of: Brazil, Netherlands, Denmark, Nigeria, say, would be the group of Megadeth. How about England, Netherlands, Sweden, US. Does that still qualify in your opinion? Would South Africa or Senegal impress you? How about Paraguay? As a side note, as a US fan, I'm kind of wondering how long it will be before folks look at a group with the US and some other tough teams and say "gee, that's a tough group" in part because of the US.
Yes it would, but I don't think it will be possible to have 3 European sides in a single group. The draw will look something like this... Pot 1: Germany, Brazil, Spain, Argentina, England, Italy, Mexico, France Pot 2: The other 9 European teams. Pot 3: The 5 Africa teams and the other 3 Concacaf teams Pot 4: The 4 Asia teams and the other 3 Conmebol teams. First, the 8 seeded teams would be drawn into the 8 groups. Then 8 of the European teams would be drawn from Pot 2 and placed into the 8 groups. The remaining European team would be placed into Pot 4. Then the 8 teams in Pot 3 would be drawn and placed into each group with the caveat that a Concacaf team won't be placed in Mexico's group. Finally, the teams in Pot 4 would be drawn -- the remaining European team cannot be drawn into a Eurpean seeded group and no Conmebol team can be drawn into Brazil or Argentina's group. So there are several strong candidates for a group of death to come out of Pot 2 as you mentioned -- Turkey, Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium. Out of Pot 3, you'd have whoever the African power de-annum is -- Nigeria or Senegal or the US (god forbid). Then out of Pot 4, your most likely candidate to make a true group of death would be to have one of the European powers NOT get drawn out of Pot 2 and get drawn down here. Beyond that, it'd be a Paraguay or Colombia -- whoever is a strong 3rd out of South America. I just don't see Japan or SoKo giving the trouble this time around that they gave playing at home. Therefore, the most likely candidates for a group of death would be: The Brazil or Argentina group... A European powerhouse out of Pot 2 like Turkey or Netherlands, the United States or the African powerhouse out of Pot 3 plus the remaining European team out of Pot 4. This would give you Brazil, Turkey, US and Denmark or Argentina, Netherlands, Nigeria and Czech Rep. A second option would be: One of the European seeds with another European power out of Pot 2, the United States or the African powerhouse out of Pot 3 plus the top Conmebol team out of Pot 4. Germany, Belgium, United States, Colombia or France, Netherlands, Nigeria and Paraguay. I just don't see an Asian team being in a Group of Death.
I think it's time to get rid of the pots by continent, and go instead for (top 8), (second 8), (third 8), (fourth 8), or even 8 pots (1-4), (5-8), ... But the draws would get much more complex if you want to keep the intra-continental proviso's that are outlined above. G.O.D.'s are becomming too commonplace in Fifa competitions. (Some say that the USA was in a G.O.D. in the Women's Cup.) It may be time to balance the groups a little better.
Option 1: Brazil Netherlands Turkey Cameroon Option 2: Germany Netherlands Cameroon Paraguay I think the first group of death looks scarier than the second, though as a US fan, I wouldn't want to see the US take Cameroon's place in either. I wouldn't want either Brazil or Germany in my group, but I'd rather an unseeded South American team than one of the stronger unseeded European teams (e.g. Netherlands, Czechs, Turkey).
I don't think you are going to see the non-Euro pots formations announced until all the teams qualifying are known in mid-November 2005. Then, I think that you will see a change in the past order by having the non-seeded North and South Americas teams placed in the same pot (FIFA is thinking more and more in terms of the Americas being a semi-united entity), and the other non-European teams (from which there will definitely be no seeds) will comprise a big pot of 9 or 10. The draw will proceed so that there will be no non-Euro teams matched with teams from the same confederation, by automatic placement after the initial draws from the same pot. In this scenario, you could have the two Groups having only one Euro team look SOMETHING like: (not a prediction) Group A Germany Uruguay Japan Senegal Group B (don't laugh!) Brazil Turkey Costa Rica China All the other Groups would have two Euro teams, a team from the Americas (unless Australia makes it, in which case they would be thrown in the Americas pot if the 4th place NAmn team doesn't make it, otherwise Australia would be in a 9 team pot with the Asian and African teams), and at least on team from either Asia or Africa.
So you're saying it would look like this... Pot 1: Germany, Brazil, Spain, Argentina, England, Italy, Mexico, France Pot 2: The other 9 European teams. Pot 3: The 4 Asia teams and the 5 Africa teams. Pot 4: The other 3 Concacaf teams the other 3 Conmebol teams. So the teams from Pot 1 are placed. Then 8 teams from Pot 2 are drawn and placed into the 8 groups -- the remaining team is placed in Pot 4. Then 8 teams from Pot 3 are drawn and placed into the 8 groups -- again the remaining team is placed into Pot 4. Finally, the 8 teams from Pot 4 are drawn with the caveat that the remaining Euro team must go into one of the non-euro pots and the concacaf teams must not go in Mexico's pot and the conmebol teams must not go in the Arg or Braz pots. Also, the remaining Africa/Asia team must go to a group without their own fed in it. This could make some good groups of death too Germany/England Netherlands/Czech Rep Cameroon/Senegal United States/Colombia/Paraguay Brazil/Argentina Netherlands/Czech Rep Cameroon/Senegal Turkey
Yes, but I don't think that you can assume that Brazil, Argentina and Mexico (if she's seeded) will be ruled out of getting two Euro teams. I think that it is more likely that Germany will get three non-Euro teams in it's group, and that one of the other Euro seeds will get three non-Euro seeds. This would be justified, as much of the format of the last World Cup groupings, on "economic" conditions, arguing that the group would be a strong enough draw without an extra Euro team.
If the draw is done as last time all European seeds will have another European team in the group. Therefore only one out of Brazil, Argentina and Mexico can have two European teams.
You're right, only 1 of those 3 teams can get 2 Euro teams because there will be 9 non-seeded Euro teams (barring upsets). But we were talking about potential groups of death and the worst scenario for a group of death would be for two strong Euro teams to get drawn into Brazil or Argentina. If Mexico is the one to draw two Euro's, then it's not as big a group of death. Unless they DRASTICALLY change the way they've done the draw the last few World Cup's, it will be impossible for Germany to be a sole Euro team in its group. There will be a pot full of Euro teams with one drawn into every group (including Germany's).
Well, if I want a team to be screwed I would make a group with: BRAZIL ARGENTINA GERMANY VATICAN ( OR GERMANY)